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Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Frontier BU11 · 11 teams · Arkansas Comets FC (all teams)

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7th
5-1-5 record · 11 played
1.45 points per game
-5 goal diff · 39–44
LDLWWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.7
-0.44 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:30 PM

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Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II
7th · 1.45 PPG
vs
West Side Alliance Pre
10th · 0.67 PPG

Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex, field 3 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 5–2 (expected goals 5.1 for, 2.2 against · 2.52 expected points)

Season so farArkansas Comets FC Pre- IIWest Side Alliance Pre
Position7th10th
Record (W-D-L)5-1-52-0-7
Points per game1.450.67
Goals for / game3.51.7
Goals against / game4.05.3
Clean sheets31
Held scoreless04
Form (recent first)W W L D LW W L L L
Biggest win9–0 vs Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White7–0 vs Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White
Worst loss1–12 at OK Energy FC Frontier Pre0–14 at FC Tulsa Academy Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.48-2.74
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.44-0.55

Already played this season: Sun Aug 30 6–0 at West Side Alliance Pre (W)

Common opponents: Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I — we 3–10; they 0–5. Arkansas Rising Pre — we 3–2, 6–4; they 1–3. Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White — we 9–0; they 7–0, 3–1. OK Energy FC Frontier Pre — we 1–12; they 2–4. Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre — we 1–1, 2–3; they 0–9. Tulsa SC Frontier Pre — we 6–0; they 2–6.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    West Side Alliance Pre average 1.7 goals/game (league avg 3.5); blanked in 4 of 9.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    West Side Alliance Pre concede 5.3/game; worst result 0–14 at FC Tulsa Academy Pre.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 81% chance; likely score 5–2.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the West Side Alliance Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II – West Side Alliance Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.58 PPG		 7th— holds 6th▲ up 1 7th— holds
Win
1.58 PPG		 7th— holds 6th▲ up 1 7th— holds
Draw
1.42 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 7th— holds
Loss
1.33 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 7th— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 5–2 win we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
6.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th 3%
  6. 6th 27%
  7. 7th 62%
  8. 8th 7%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.15 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC Tulsa Academy Pre 3.00 (+1.55) 1st (2.91) 44 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I 2.50 (+1.05) 2nd (2.44) 34 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre 2.22 (+0.77) 4th (1.92) 29 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
4 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White 1.88 (+0.43) 3rd (1.95) 22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
5 Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre 1.73 (+0.28) 5th (1.72) 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
6 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II 1.67 (+0.22) 6th (1.47) 18 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection

How the results connect

78 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II to West Side Alliance Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

56 favour us
4 even
18 favour them
+3.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
6–0 9–0 0–7 3–10 5–0 3–2 3–1 6–4 1–3 2–3 9–0 1–1 1–12 4–2 6–0 6–2 10–2 2–3 Arkansas Comets FC … 7th Oklahoma Celtic Pre… 11th Arkansas Comets FC … 2nd Arkansas Rising Pre 8th Broken Arrow Soccer… 5th OK Energy FC Fronti… 3rd Tulsa SC Frontier P… 9th West Side Alliance … 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

1st 6th 11th Aug 22 Aug 30 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 10 Oct 21

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.79 · 4th hardest of 11

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
03:30 PM		 West Side Alliance Pre
10th · 2-0-7 · GD -33		 Home
Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
81%		 5–2 2.52 1.54 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
10:00 AM		 Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White
11th · 0-0-10 · GD -73		 Away far trip
Oklahoma Celtic		 ●○○○○ Favorable
95%		 6–1 2.88 1.65 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
02:00 PM		 Tulsa SC Frontier Pre
9th · 3-0-8 · GD -15		 Away far trip
Jenks Sports Complex 		●●●○○ Toss-up
48%		 3–3 1.60 1.64 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
01:00 PM		 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I
2nd · 8-1-1 · GD +45		 Home
Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
9%		 2–6 0.35 1.56 Upside
Sat Nov 21
01:00 PM		 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +0		 Home
Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
42%		 2–2 1.44 1.55 Upside
Sat Nov 21
04:00 PM		 FC Tulsa Academy Pre
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +58		 Home
Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 1–7 0.05 1.46 Upside
Sun Feb 21
02:00 PM		 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre
3rd · 6-2-1 · GD +9		 Home
Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
32%		 3–4 1.11 1.44 Upside
Sun Feb 21
11:00 AM		 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White
4th · 5-0-3 · GD +16		 Home
Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
23%		 2–4 0.82 1.41 Upside
Sun Feb 28
11:00 AM		 FC Tulsa Academy Pre
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +58		 Away far trip
Scheels Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
0%		 1–8 0.02 1.34 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC Tulsa Academy Pre 7700 602+58 213.00 WWWWW +0.17 -0.85 100% 1.0
2 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I 10811 6621+45 252.50 WDWWW -0.39 -0.15 100% 2.0
3 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre 9621 3526+9 202.22 WDDLW +0.05 -0.09 78% 3.9
4 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White 8503 3620+16 151.88 LWWLW +0.40 -0.38 86% 3.6
5 Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre 11614 4028+12 191.73 WLDWW +0.06 +0.05 32% 4.8
6 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II 6312 1111+0 101.67 WLWDL +0.09 +0.09 4% 6.1
7 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II 11515 3944-5 161.45 LDLWW -0.44 +0.79 0% 6.7
8 Arkansas Rising Pre 10307 3549-14 90.90 WWLLL +0.24 +0.11 0% 8.2
9 Tulsa SC Frontier Pre 11308 2641-15 90.82 LLLLL -0.27 +0.83 0% 8.8
10 West Side Alliance Pre 9207 1548-33 60.67 LLLWW -0.55 +0.95 0% 9.9
11 Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White 100010 477-73 00.00 LLLLL -0.32 +1.58 0% 11.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.52 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.