TableChase Clubs

Tulsa SC Frontier Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Frontier BU11 · 11 teams · Tulsa Soccer Club (all teams)

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9th
3-0-8 record · 11 played
0.82 points per game
-15 goal diff · 26–41
LLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.8
-0.27 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 02:00 PM

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Tulsa SC Frontier Pre
9th · 0.82 PPG
vs
Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II
7th · 1.45 PPG

Jenks Sports Complex , Field 4 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 3–3 (expected goals 3.1 for, 3.5 against · 1.24 expected points)

Season so farTulsa SC Frontier PreArkansas Comets FC Pre- II
Position9th7th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-85-1-5
Points per game0.821.45
Goals for / game2.43.5
Goals against / game3.74.0
Clean sheets13
Held scoreless40
Form (recent first)L L L L LW W L D L
Biggest win8–0 vs Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White9–0 vs Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White
Worst loss0–6 at OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White1–12 at OK Energy FC Frontier Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.16-0.48
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.27-0.44

Already played this season: Sun Oct 11 0–6 at Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II (L)

Common opponents: Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre — we 0–3; they 1–1, 2–3. OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White — we 0–6; they 1–10. OK Energy FC Frontier Pre — we 3–4; they 1–12. Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White — we 5–1, 8–0; they 9–0. West Side Alliance Pre — we 6–2; they 6–0. FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II — we 1–2; they 1–2. Arkansas Rising Pre — we 2–5; they 3–2, 6–4. Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I — we 0–6; they 3–10.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–3 vs Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre, 0–6 at OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White, 0–6 at Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II, 0–6 at Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 36%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Arkansas Rising Pre sit 8th on 0.90 PPG; we are on 0.82.

    A point moves us above Arkansas Rising Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Tulsa SC Frontier Pre – Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.83 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 11th▼ down 2
Win
1.00 PPG		 8th▲ up 1 8th▲ up 1 10th▼ down 1
Draw
0.83 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 11th▼ down 2
Loss
0.75 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 11th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–3 draw we finish as high as 8th if every rival drops points, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
8.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th 24%
  9. 9th 68%
  10. 10th 5%
  11. 11th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 1.80 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC Tulsa Academy Pre 3.00 (+2.18) 1st (2.91) 51 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I 2.50 (+1.68) 2nd (2.44) 41 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre 2.22 (+1.40) 4th (1.92) 36 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White 1.88 (+1.06) 3rd (1.95) 29 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre 1.73 (+0.91) 5th (1.72) 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
6 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II 1.67 (+0.85) 6th (1.47) 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
7 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II 1.45 (+0.63) 7th (1.34) 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
8 Arkansas Rising Pre 0.90 (+0.08) 8th (1.00) A point next game

How the results connect

90 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Tulsa SC Frontier Pre to Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

35 favour us
10 even
45 favour them
+0.1 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–6 1–2 2–1 0–6 10–3 8–0 0–9 6–2 0–6 0–3 3–2 0–6 10–1 1–1 2–5 2–3 4–6 5–1 3–4 12–1 Tulsa SC Frontier P… 9th FC Tulsa Academy Pr… 6th Arkansas Comets FC … 2nd Oklahoma Celtic Pre… 11th West Side Alliance … 10th Broken Arrow Soccer… 5th OK Energy FC Fronti… 4th Arkansas Rising Pre 8th OK Energy FC Fronti… 3rd Arkansas Comets FC … 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

1st 6th 11th Aug 22 Aug 30 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 10 Oct 21

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.83 · 3rd hardest of 11

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Sep 12
11:00 AM
no score posted		 Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre
5th · 6-1-4 · GD +12		 Away
Indian Springs Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
13%		 1–4 0.52 0.79 Upside
Sun Nov 1
02:00 PM		 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II
7th · 5-1-5 · GD -5		 Home
Jenks Sports Complex 		●●●●○ Tough
36%		 3–3 1.24 0.83 Upside
Sun Nov 1
10:00 AM		 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I
2nd · 8-1-1 · GD +45		 Home
Jenks Sports Complex 		●●●●● Very tough
6%		 1–5 0.23 0.79 Upside
Sun Nov 15
02:00 PM		 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +0		 Away
Scheels Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.85 0.79 Upside
Sun Nov 15
11:00 AM		 FC Tulsa Academy Pre
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +58		 Away
Scheels Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–7 0.02 0.74 Upside
Sat Dec 5
12:00 PM		 West Side Alliance Pre
10th · 2-0-7 · GD -33		 Away
RiverCity Parks		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
57%		 3–2 1.87 0.81 Swing game
Sun Dec 13
10:00 AM		 Arkansas Rising Pre
8th · 3-0-7 · GD -14		 Home
Jenks Sports Complex 		●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 3–3 1.44 0.84 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
01:00 PM		 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White
4th · 5-0-3 · GD +16		 Home
Jenks Sports Complex 		●●●●● Very tough
15%		 2–4 0.58 0.83 Upside
Sun Mar 7
09:00 AM		 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre
3rd · 6-2-1 · GD +9		 Home
Jenks Sports Complex 		●●●●● Very tough
22%		 2–3 0.81 0.83 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC Tulsa Academy Pre 7700 602+58 213.00 WWWWW +0.17 -0.85 100% 1.0
2 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I 10811 6621+45 252.50 WDWWW -0.39 -0.15 100% 2.0
3 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre 9621 3526+9 202.22 WDDLW +0.05 -0.09 77% 3.9
4 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White 8503 3620+16 151.88 LWWLW +0.40 -0.38 86% 3.6
5 Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre 11614 4028+12 191.73 WLDWW +0.06 +0.05 33% 4.8
6 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II 6312 1111+0 101.67 WLWDL +0.09 +0.09 5% 6.1
7 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II 11515 3944-5 161.45 LDLWW -0.44 +0.79 0% 6.8
8 Arkansas Rising Pre 10307 3549-14 90.90 WWLLL +0.24 +0.11 0% 8.2
9 Tulsa SC Frontier Pre 11308 2641-15 90.82 LLLLL -0.27 +0.83 0% 8.8
10 West Side Alliance Pre 9207 1548-33 60.67 LLLWW -0.55 +0.95 0% 9.9
11 Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White 100010 477-73 00.00 LLLLL -0.32 +1.58 0% 11.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.52 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.