Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Frontier BU11 · 11 teams · Arkansas Comets FC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:30 PM
Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex, field 3 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 8–1 (expected goals 8.4 for, 1.4 against · 2.96 expected points)
| Season so far | Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I | West Side Alliance Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 10th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 8-1-1 | 2-0-7 |
| Points per game | 2.50 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / game | 6.6 | 1.7 |
| Goals against / game | 2.1 | 5.3 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W D W | W W L L L |
| Biggest win | 14–2 at Arkansas Rising Pre | 7–0 vs Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White |
| Worst loss | 1–6 at FC Tulsa Academy Pre | 0–14 at FC Tulsa Academy Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +3.25 | -2.74 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.39 | -0.55 |
Already played this season: Sun Aug 30 5–0 at West Side Alliance Pre (W)
Common opponents: Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II — we 10–3; they 0–6. FC Tulsa Academy Pre — we 1–6; they 0–14. Arkansas Rising Pre — we 6–3, 14–2; they 1–3. Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White — we 9–0; they 7–0, 3–1. OK Energy FC Frontier Pre — we 5–5; they 2–4. Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre — we 3–1; they 0–9. Tulsa SC Frontier Pre — we 6–0; they 2–6.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
West Side Alliance Pre average 1.7 goals/game (league avg 3.5); blanked in 4 of 9.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
West Side Alliance Pre concede 5.3/game; worst result 0–14 at FC Tulsa Academy Pre.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 98% chance; likely score 8–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the West Side Alliance Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I – West Side Alliance Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.55 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.55 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.36 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Loss 2.27 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 8–1 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 96%
- 3rd 3%
- 4th <1%
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Tulsa Academy Pre | 3.00 (+0.50) | 1st (2.91) | 35 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
How the results connect
72 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I to West Side Alliance Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
16 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.15 · 9th hardest of 11
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 10 11:00 AM no score posted |
Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre 5th · 6-1-4 · GD +12 |
Home Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
4–2 | 2.41 | 2.49 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 12:30 PM |
West Side Alliance Pre 10th · 2-0-7 · GD -33 |
Home Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
8–1 | 2.96 | 2.53 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 02:00 PM |
Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White 11th · 0-0-10 · GD -73 |
Away far trip
Oklahoma Celtic |
●○○○○ Favorable | 100% |
9–0 | 2.99 | 2.57 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 10:00 AM |
Tulsa SC Frontier Pre 9th · 3-0-8 · GD -15 |
Away far trip
Jenks Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
5–1 | 2.71 | 2.58 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 01:00 PM |
Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II 7th · 5-1-5 · GD -5 |
Away Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
6–2 | 2.58 | 2.58 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 21 10:00 AM |
FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II 6th · 3-1-2 · GD +0 |
Home Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
4–1 | 2.56 | 2.57 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 21 TBD |
FC Tulsa Academy Pre 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +58 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
2–4 | 0.55 | 2.46 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 21 02:00 PM |
OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White 4th · 5-0-3 · GD +16 |
Home Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
4–2 | 2.25 | 2.44 | Bank it |
| Sun Feb 21 11:00 AM |
OK Energy FC Frontier Pre 3rd · 6-2-1 · GD +9 |
Home Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
5–2 | 2.48 | 2.45 | Bank it |
| Sun Feb 28 02:00 PM |
FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II 6th · 3-1-2 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Scheels Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
3–1 | 2.32 | 2.44 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | FC Tulsa Academy Pre | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 2 | +58 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | +0.17 | -0.85 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II · Sat Oct 24 at FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II · Fri Oct 30 vs Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 66 | 21 | +45 | 25 | 2.50 | WDWWW | -0.39 | -0.15 | 100% | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs West Side Alliance Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | OK Energy FC Frontier Pre | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 35 | 26 | +9 | 20 | 2.22 | WDDLW | +0.05 | -0.09 | 78% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Rising Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 36 | 20 | +16 | 15 | 1.88 | LWWLW | +0.40 | -0.38 | 85% | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at West Side Alliance Pre · Wed Oct 28 at Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White · Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Rising Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 40 | 28 | +12 | 19 | 1.73 | WLDWW | +0.06 | +0.05 | 32% | 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Tulsa SC Frontier Pre · Sat Oct 10 at Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I · Fri Oct 30 at FC Tulsa Academy Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 11 | +0 | 10 | 1.67 | WLWDL | +0.09 | +0.09 | 5% | 6.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at FC Tulsa Academy Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre · Sat Oct 31 at West Side Alliance Pre See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 16 | 1.45 | LDLWW | -0.44 | +0.79 | 0% | 6.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs West Side Alliance Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White · Sun Nov 1 at Tulsa SC Frontier Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Arkansas Rising Pre | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 35 | 49 | -14 | 9 | 0.90 | WWLLL | +0.24 | +0.11 | 0% | 8.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs West Side Alliance Pre · Sat Oct 31 at OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White · Sat Oct 31 at OK Energy FC Frontier Pre See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Tulsa SC Frontier Pre | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 41 | -15 | 9 | 0.82 | LLLLL | -0.27 | +0.83 | 0% | 8.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II · Sun Nov 1 vs Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | West Side Alliance Pre | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 48 | -33 | 6 | 0.67 | LLLWW | -0.55 | +0.95 | 0% | 9.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White · Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Rising Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 77 | -73 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | -0.32 | +1.58 | 0% | 11.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Wed Oct 28 vs OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White · Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I · Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.52 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.