TableChase Clubs

Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Frontier BU11 · 11 teams · Broken Arrow Soccer Club (all teams)

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5th
6-1-4 record · 11 played
1.73 points per game
+12 goal diff · 40–28
WLDWWlast 5
32% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.8
+0.06 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Fri Oct 30, 06:00 PM

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Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre
5th · 1.73 PPG
at
FC Tulsa Academy Pre
1st · 3.00 PPG

Indian Springs Soccer Complex, field 37N ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–5 (expected goals 1.3 for, 5.9 against · 0.10 expected points)

Season so farBroken Arrow Soccer Club PreFC Tulsa Academy Pre
Position5th1st
Record (W-D-L)6-1-47-0-0
Points per game1.733.00
Goals for / game3.68.6
Goals against / game2.50.3
Clean sheets25
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W W D L WW W W W W
Biggest win9–0 vs West Side Alliance Pre14–0 vs West Side Alliance Pre
Worst loss1–6 at OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.78+5.60
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.06+0.17

Already played this season: Fri Sep 25 0–5 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre (L)

Common opponents: Tulsa SC Frontier Pre — we 3–0; they 6–1. West Side Alliance Pre — we 9–0; they 14–0. OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White — we 1–6; they 9–0. OK Energy FC Frontier Pre — we 2–3; they 11–0. Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I — we 1–3; they 6–1. Arkansas Rising Pre — we 6–3; they 9–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    FC Tulsa Academy Pre score 8.6/game — well above the league's 3.5.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    FC Tulsa Academy Pre concede only 0.3/game with 5 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–5 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 2%; a draw (4%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    FC Tulsa Academy Pre have won 7 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 06:00 PM at Indian Springs Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Friday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Tulsa Academy Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre – FC Tulsa Academy Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.58 PPG		 6th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 2
Win
1.83 PPG		 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 1
Draw
1.67 PPG		 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 2
Loss
1.58 PPG		 6th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–5 loss we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
32% top 4
68% below the top 4
4.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 7%
  4. 4th 25%
  5. 5th 53%
  6. 6th 13%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.30 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC Tulsa Academy Pre 3.00 (+1.27) 1st (2.91) 41 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I 2.50 (+0.77) 2nd (2.44) 31 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre 2.22 (+0.49) 4th (1.92) 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
4 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White 1.88 (+0.15) 3rd (1.95) 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection

How the results connect

59 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre to FC Tulsa Academy Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
1 even
54 favour them
-8.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–5 3–0 1–6 9–0 0–14 6–3 0–9 1–3 1–6 2–3 0–11 1–6 0–9 2–6 5–2 6–0 14–2 1–1 6–0 Broken Arrow Soccer… 5th Tulsa SC Frontier P… 9th West Side Alliance … 10th Arkansas Rising Pre 8th Arkansas Comets FC … 2nd OK Energy FC Fronti… 3rd OK Energy FC Fronti… 4th Arkansas Comets FC … 7th FC Tulsa Academy Pre 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

1st 6th 11th Aug 22 Aug 30 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 10 Oct 21

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.05 · 7th hardest of 11

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Sep 12
11:00 AM
no score posted		 Tulsa SC Frontier Pre
9th · 3-0-8 · GD -15		 Home
Indian Springs Soccer Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
75%		 4–1 2.36 1.78 Bank it
Sat Oct 10
11:00 AM
no score posted		 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I
2nd · 8-1-1 · GD +45		 Away far trip
Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
13%		 2–4 0.49 1.68 Upside
Fri Oct 30
06:00 PM		 FC Tulsa Academy Pre
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +58		 Away
Indian Springs Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 1–5 0.10 1.57 Upside
Sun Nov 1
02:00 PM		 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +0		 Away
Scheels Sports Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
46%		 2–2 1.57 1.57 Swing game
Thu Nov 5
06:00 PM		 West Side Alliance Pre
10th · 2-0-7 · GD -33		 Away
RiverCity Parks		 ●○○○○ Favorable
82%		 4–1 2.56 1.63 Bank it
Sun Dec 6
12:00 PM		 Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White
11th · 0-0-10 · GD -73		 Home
Indian Springs Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
99%		 7–0 2.97 1.71 Bank it
Sat Dec 12
11:00 AM		 Arkansas Rising Pre
8th · 3-0-7 · GD -14		 Home
Indian Springs Soccer Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
74%		 4–2 2.33 1.74 Bank it
Sat Jan 30
03:00 PM		 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre
3rd · 6-2-1 · GD +9		 Home
Indian Springs Soccer Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
50%		 3–2 1.66 1.74 Swing game
Sat Jan 30
11:00 AM		 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White
4th · 5-0-3 · GD +16		 Home
Indian Springs Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
40%		 3–3 1.36 1.72 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC Tulsa Academy Pre 7700 602+58 213.00 WWWWW +0.17 -0.85 100% 1.0
2 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I 10811 6621+45 252.50 WDWWW -0.39 -0.15 100% 2.0
3 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre 9621 3526+9 202.22 WDDLW +0.05 -0.09 77% 3.9
4 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White 8503 3620+16 151.88 LWWLW +0.40 -0.38 86% 3.6
5 Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre 11614 4028+12 191.73 WLDWW +0.06 +0.05 32% 4.8
6 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II 6312 1111+0 101.67 WLWDL +0.09 +0.09 5% 6.1
7 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II 11515 3944-5 161.45 LDLWW -0.44 +0.79 0% 6.7
8 Arkansas Rising Pre 10307 3549-14 90.90 WWLLL +0.24 +0.11 0% 8.1
9 Tulsa SC Frontier Pre 11308 2641-15 90.82 LLLLL -0.27 +0.83 0% 8.8
10 West Side Alliance Pre 9207 1548-33 60.67 LLLWW -0.55 +0.95 0% 9.9
11 Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White 100010 477-73 00.00 LLLLL -0.32 +1.58 0% 11.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.52 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.