OK Energy FC Frontier Pre
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Frontier BU11 · 11 teams · Oklahoma Energy FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 11:00 AM
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 5–2 (expected goals 5.3 for, 2.9 against · 2.31 expected points)
| Season so far | OK Energy FC Frontier Pre | Arkansas Rising Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 6-2-1 | 3-0-7 |
| Points per game | 2.22 | 0.90 |
| Goals for / game | 3.9 | 3.5 |
| Goals against / game | 2.9 | 4.9 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W L D D W | L L L W W |
| Biggest win | 12–1 vs Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II | 12–0 vs Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White |
| Worst loss | 0–11 at FC Tulsa Academy Pre | 2–14 vs Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.70 | -1.05 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.05 | +0.24 |
Common opponents: Tulsa SC Frontier Pre — we 4–3; they 5–2. Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre — we 3–2; they 3–6. West Side Alliance Pre — we 4–2; they 3–1. Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II — we 12–1; they 2–3, 4–6. Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I — we 5–5; they 3–6, 2–14. FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II — we 2–2; they 1–2. FC Tulsa Academy Pre — we 0–11; they 0–9. Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White — we 3–0; they 12–0.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–11 at FC Tulsa Academy Pre.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 73% chance; likely score 5–2.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
Arkansas Rising Pre have lost 3 straight (form: WWLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Arkansas Rising Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (OK Energy FC Frontier Pre – Arkansas Rising Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.30 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.30 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 2.10 PPG |
3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 5–2 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 2%
- 3rd 34%
- 4th 39%
- 5th 21%
- 6th 4%
- 7th <1%
- 8th <1%
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.65 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Tulsa Academy Pre | 3.00 (+0.78) | 1st (2.91) | 40 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I | 2.50 (+0.28) | 2nd (2.44) | 30 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
How the results connect
82 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link OK Energy FC Frontier Pre to Arkansas Rising Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
16 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.09 · 8th hardest of 11
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM |
Arkansas Rising Pre 8th · 3-0-7 · GD -14 |
Home Edmond Soccer Club |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
5–2 | 2.31 | 2.23 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 01:00 PM |
FC Tulsa Academy Pre 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +58 |
Home Edmond Soccer Club |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–5 | 0.15 | 2.04 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 05:00 PM |
FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II 6th · 3-1-2 · GD +0 |
Home Edmond Soccer Club |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–2 | 1.85 | 2.03 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 01:00 PM |
West Side Alliance Pre 10th · 2-0-7 · GD -33 |
Home Edmond Soccer Club |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
5–1 | 2.74 | 2.08 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 21 11:00 AM |
OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White 4th · 5-0-3 · GD +16 |
Away far trip
North Oklahoma City FC |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
2–3 | 0.93 | 2.00 | Upside |
| Wed Dec 9 06:00 PM |
Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White 11th · 0-0-10 · GD -73 |
Home Edmond Soccer Club |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
7–0 | 2.97 | 2.06 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 30 03:00 PM |
Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre 5th · 6-1-4 · GD +12 |
Away far trip
Indian Springs Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
2–3 | 1.17 | 2.01 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 12:00 PM |
Arkansas Rising Pre 8th · 3-0-7 · GD -14 |
Away far trip
Burns Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
4–3 | 1.96 | 2.01 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 21 02:00 PM |
Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II 7th · 5-1-5 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
4–3 | 1.74 | 1.99 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 21 11:00 AM |
Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I 2nd · 8-1-1 · GD +45 |
Away far trip
Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
2–5 | 0.43 | 1.91 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 09:00 AM |
Tulsa SC Frontier Pre 9th · 3-0-8 · GD -15 |
Away far trip
Jenks Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
3–2 | 2.05 | 1.92 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | FC Tulsa Academy Pre | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 2 | +58 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | +0.17 | -0.85 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II · Sat Oct 24 at FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II · Fri Oct 30 vs Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 66 | 21 | +45 | 25 | 2.50 | WDWWW | -0.39 | -0.15 | 100% | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs West Side Alliance Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | OK Energy FC Frontier Pre | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 35 | 26 | +9 | 20 | 2.22 | WDDLW | +0.05 | -0.09 | 75% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Rising Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 36 | 20 | +16 | 15 | 1.88 | LWWLW | +0.40 | -0.38 | 85% | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at West Side Alliance Pre · Wed Oct 28 at Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White · Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Rising Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 40 | 28 | +12 | 19 | 1.73 | WLDWW | +0.06 | +0.05 | 34% | 4.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Tulsa SC Frontier Pre · Sat Oct 10 at Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I · Fri Oct 30 at FC Tulsa Academy Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 11 | +0 | 10 | 1.67 | WLWDL | +0.09 | +0.09 | 5% | 6.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at FC Tulsa Academy Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre · Sat Oct 31 at West Side Alliance Pre See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 16 | 1.45 | LDLWW | -0.44 | +0.79 | 0% | 6.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs West Side Alliance Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White · Sun Nov 1 at Tulsa SC Frontier Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Arkansas Rising Pre | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 35 | 49 | -14 | 9 | 0.90 | WWLLL | +0.24 | +0.11 | 0% | 8.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs West Side Alliance Pre · Sat Oct 31 at OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White · Sat Oct 31 at OK Energy FC Frontier Pre See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Tulsa SC Frontier Pre | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 41 | -15 | 9 | 0.82 | LLLLL | -0.27 | +0.83 | 0% | 8.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II · Sun Nov 1 vs Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | West Side Alliance Pre | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 48 | -33 | 6 | 0.67 | LLLWW | -0.55 | +0.95 | 0% | 9.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White · Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Rising Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 77 | -73 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | -0.32 | +1.58 | 0% | 11.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Wed Oct 28 vs OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White · Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I · Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.52 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.