Lonestar SAT STXCL

ECNL Regional League Girls · STXCL GU17 · 15 teams · Lonestar SAT (all teams)

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7th

2-0-2 record · 4 played

1.50 points per game

-6 goal diff · 2–8

WLWLlast 4

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.5

-0.12 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM

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Lonestar SAT STXCL
7th · 1.50 PPG

FIERCE United STXCL
8th · 1.43 PPG

ASP / CC, Field 1 ↗

27% 25% 49%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.1 for, 1.6 against · 1.05 expected points)

Season so far	Lonestar SAT STXCL	FIERCE United STXCL
Position	7th	8th
Record (W-D-L)	2-0-2	3-1-3
Points per game	1.50	1.43
Goals for / game	0.5	1.7
Goals against / game	2.0	1.9
Clean sheets	2	1
Held scoreless	2	2
Form (recent first)	L W L W	L W W D W
Biggest win	1–0 at AHFC NW STXCL	4–1 vs 210 FC STXCL
Worst loss	0–5 at Sting CC STXCL Hennessy	2–5 vs Sting CC STXCL Hennessy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.81	-0.15
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.12	-0.15

Common opponents: AHFC NW STXCL — we 1–0; they 3–2. AHFC CENTRAL STXCL — we 0–3; they 0–0. Sting CC STXCL Hennessy — we 0–5; they 2–5.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL, 0–5 at Sting CC STXCL Hennessy.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 27%; a draw (25%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
What a win does
Imperial SC STXCL sit 6th on 1.80 PPG; we are on 1.50.
A win moves us above Imperial SC STXCL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FIERCE United STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lonestar SAT STXCL – FIERCE United STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.40 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	8th▼ down 1
Win 1.80 PPG	7th— holds	6th▲ up 1	7th— holds
Draw 1.40 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	8th▼ down 1
Loss 1.20 PPG	9th▼ down 2	8th▼ down 1	9th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

10.5 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th <1%
5th <1%
6th 3%
7th 6%
8th 8%
9th 10%
10th 15%
11th 19%
12th 21%
13th 12%
14th 4%
15th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.57 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Dynamos STXCL	3.00 (+1.50)	1st (2.65)	36 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Lonestar RGV STXCL	2.60 (+1.10)	4th (1.97)	31 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
3	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy	2.50 (+1.00)	2nd (2.42)	29 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
4	Challenge Aggieland STXCL	2.40 (+0.90)	3rd (2.24)	28 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
5	RISE SC STXCL	2.17 (+0.67)	5th (1.86)	25 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
6	Imperial SC STXCL	1.80 (+0.30)	6th (1.43)	Win next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Lonestar SAT STXCL to FIERCE United STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us

1 even

6 favour them

-2.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.15 · 6th hardest of 15

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 02:00 PM	FIERCE United STXCL 8th · 3-1-3 · GD -1	Home ASP / CC	●●●●○ Tough	27%	1–1	1.05	1.41	Upside
Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold 9th · 2-0-3 · GD -5	Away far trip Town & Country	●●●●○ Tough	27%	0–1	1.07	1.35	Upside
Sat Nov 7 04:00 PM	Lonestar ATX STXCL White 13th · 1-0-4 · GD -5	Home ASP / CC	●●●●○ Tough	32%	1–1	1.22	1.33	Upside
Sat Nov 14 08:00 AM	Imperial SC STXCL 6th · 3-0-2 · GD +0	Away far trip Dyess Park	●●●●● Very tough	19%	0–1	0.80	1.27	Upside
Sun Nov 15 08:00 AM	Dynamos STXCL 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +18	Away far trip Dyess Park	●●●●● Very tough	2%	0–3	0.15	1.14	Upside
Sat Nov 21 12:00 PM	Houstonians FC STXCL 11th · 1-1-3 · GD -8	Home Classics Elite Soccer Complex	●●●●○ Tough	36%	1–1	1.33	1.16	Upside
Sun Nov 22 08:00 AM	Challenge Aggieland STXCL 4th · 4-0-1 · GD +14	Home Classics Elite Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	8%	0–3	0.36	1.09	Upside
Sat Apr 17 02:00 PM	Lonestar RGV STXCL 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +7	Home ASP / CC	●●●●● Very tough	15%	0–1	0.67	1.06	Upside
Sun Apr 18 04:00 PM	LTFC STXCL 10th · 2-1-3 · GD +6	Home ASP / CC	●●●●● Very tough	17%	0–1	0.74	1.03	Upside
Sat Apr 24 10:00 AM	210 FC STXCL 14th · 1-0-5 · GD -14	Away ASP / CC	●●●●○ Tough	39%	1–1	1.41	1.06	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Dynamos STXCL

+18

3.00

WWWWW

-0.29

-0.07

100%

1.4

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (13th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (3rd)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	210 FC STXCL (14th)	6–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at RISE SC STXCL · Sun Nov 8 vs Challenge Aggieland STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (12th)	4–0	95%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	1–0	56%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (4th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar RGV STXCL (2nd)	2–0	70%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (7th)	3–0	90%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	LTFC STXCL (10th)	2–0	67%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	FIERCE United STXCL (8th)	2–0	79%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	AHFC NW STXCL (15th)	3–0	92%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (6th)	2–0	84%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar RGV STXCL

2.60

WWDWW

-0.86

+0.40

59%

4.3

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	210 FC STXCL (14th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (13th)	4–1
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	AHFC NW STXCL (15th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (12th)	1–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sat Nov 14 at Dynamos STXCL · Sun Nov 15 at Imperial SC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	2–0	66%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Dynamos STXCL (1st)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Imperial SC STXCL (6th)	1–1	50%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (4th)	1–2	31%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	2–1	73%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	LTFC STXCL (10th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (7th)	1–0	63%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	FIERCE United STXCL (8th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (3rd)	1–2	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting CC STXCL Hennessy

+15

2.50

LWWWW

+0.29

-0.45

99%

2.2

W	Sat Oct 17	at	FIERCE United STXCL (8th)	5–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (7th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (4th)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	6–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Dynamos STXCL (1st)	0–4
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Imperial SC STXCL (6th)	5–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs 210 FC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at LTFC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC NW STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	210 FC STXCL (14th)	5–1	94%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	LTFC STXCL (10th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	AHFC NW STXCL (15th)	4–1	89%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (12th)	5–1	94%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (13th)	4–1	85%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	3–1	76%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Lonestar RGV STXCL (2nd)	2–1	57%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Challenge Aggieland STXCL

+14

2.40

WWWLW

-0.26

-0.06

94%

3.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (12th)	11–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (3rd)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 19	at	210 FC STXCL (14th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	FIERCE United STXCL (8th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	LTFC STXCL (10th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Imperial SC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sun Nov 8 at Dynamos STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Imperial SC STXCL (6th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Dynamos STXCL (1st)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (13th)	3–1	83%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	3–0	82%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (2nd)	2–1	47%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (7th)	3–0	80%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	4–1	88%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	AHFC NW STXCL (15th)	4–1	88%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

RISE SC STXCL

2.17

WDLWW

-0.75

+0.46

40%

4.7

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (15th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (12th)	2–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (7th)	0–1
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (2nd)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (13th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Dynamos STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at Challenge Aggieland STXCL · Sun Nov 15 vs FIERCE United STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Dynamos STXCL (1st)	0–1	18%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (4th)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	FIERCE United STXCL (8th)	1–0	61%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	210 FC STXCL (14th)	2–0	73%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (3rd)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (6th)	1–0	60%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	2–0	65%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	LTFC STXCL (10th)	1–1	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Imperial SC STXCL

1.80

LWLWW

-0.40

+0.23

7.4

W	Sat Sep 26	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (15th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (13th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	210 FC STXCL (14th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (3rd)	1–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Challenge Aggieland STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar SAT STXCL · Sun Nov 15 vs Lonestar RGV STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (4th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (7th)	1–0	59%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lonestar RGV STXCL (2nd)	1–1	27%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	FIERCE United STXCL (8th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	LTFC STXCL (10th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	2–1	48%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	0–1	18%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (12th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Dynamos STXCL (1st)	0–2	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar SAT STXCL

-6

1.50

WLWL

-0.12

+0.15

10.5

L	Sat Sep 26	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (3rd)	0–5
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 13	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (12th)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 12	at	AHFC NW STXCL (15th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FIERCE United STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sat Nov 7 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL White See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FIERCE United STXCL (8th)	1–1	27%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	0–1	27%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (13th)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Imperial SC STXCL (6th)	0–1	19%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Dynamos STXCL (1st)	0–3	2%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (4th)	0–3	8%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Lonestar RGV STXCL (2nd)	0–1	15%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	LTFC STXCL (10th)	0–1	17%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	210 FC STXCL (14th)	1–1	39%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FIERCE United STXCL

-1

1.43

WDWWL

-0.15

+0.22

8.1

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (3rd)	2–5
W	Sat Oct 3	at	LTFC STXCL (10th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	210 FC STXCL (14th)	4–1
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (12th)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (15th)	3–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (4th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar SAT STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL White · Sun Nov 15 at RISE SC STXCL See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (7th)	1–1	49%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (13th)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	0–1	17%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (6th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Dynamos STXCL (1st)	0–2	7%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (2nd)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–1	51%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold

-5

1.20

LWLWL

+0.50

-0.23

9.1

L	Fri Oct 16	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (13th)	0–3
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	LTFC STXCL (10th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Dynamos STXCL (1st)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (6th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	0–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Lonestar RGV STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar SAT STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Houstonians FC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (2nd)	0–2	14%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (7th)	1–0	46%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (4th)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (15th)	1–1	55%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (12th)	2–0	65%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	210 FC STXCL (14th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (3rd)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	FIERCE United STXCL (8th)	1–1	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

LTFC STXCL

1.17

DWWLL

-0.50

+0.31

7.6

L	Sat Oct 3	vs	FIERCE United STXCL (8th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (15th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (12th)	6–0
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (4th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Sting CC STXCL Hennessy · Sat Nov 7 at 210 FC STXCL · Sat Nov 21 vs Dynamos STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (3rd)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	210 FC STXCL (14th)	2–1	71%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Dynamos STXCL (1st)	0–2	13%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (6th)	2–1	56%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (2nd)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (7th)	1–0	61%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (13th)	2–1	64%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Houstonians FC STXCL

-8

0.80

WDLLL

+0.63

-0.23

10.4

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Dynamos STXCL (1st)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 20	at	210 FC STXCL (14th)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (3rd)	1–6
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	LTFC STXCL (10th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	FIERCE United STXCL (8th)	2–0

Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 15 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL White · Sat Nov 21 at Lonestar SAT STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (13th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (7th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (2nd)	1–2	12%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (6th)	1–2	32%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	AHFC NW STXCL (15th)	2–1	48%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (4th)	1–4	5%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	0–2	16%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (12th)	2–1	68%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC CENTRAL STXCL

-17

0.67

WLDLL

+0.47

-0.09

13.6

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (4th)	0–11
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	0–2
D	Sun Sep 20	at	FIERCE United STXCL (8th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	LTFC STXCL (10th)	0–6
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (7th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lonestar RGV STXCL (2nd)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dynamos STXCL · Wed Oct 28 vs AHFC NW STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs 210 FC STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Dynamos STXCL (1st)	0–4	1%
·	Wed Oct 28	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (15th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	210 FC STXCL (14th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (3rd)	1–5	2%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (13th)	1–2	13%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	0–2	16%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Imperial SC STXCL (6th)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	1–2	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STXCL White

-5

0.60

LLLLW

+0.53

-0.25

10.4

W	Fri Oct 16	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar RGV STXCL (2nd)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (6th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Dynamos STXCL (1st)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	1–2

Next: Sun Nov 1 at FIERCE United STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at Lonestar SAT STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Challenge Aggieland STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FIERCE United STXCL (8th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (7th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (4th)	1–3	7%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (12th)	2–1	70%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (15th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (3rd)	1–4	7%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	210 FC STXCL (14th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	LTFC STXCL (10th)	1–2	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

210 FC STXCL

-14

0.50

LLWLL

+0.55

-0.25

12.9

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	FIERCE United STXCL (8th)	1–4
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (4th)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Imperial SC STXCL (6th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Dynamos STXCL (1st)	0–6

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Sting CC STXCL Hennessy · Sat Nov 7 vs LTFC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (3rd)	1–5	2%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	LTFC STXCL (10th)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (12th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	AHFC NW STXCL (15th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (13th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (7th)	1–1	36%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC NW STXCL

-12

0.00

LLLLL

+0.16

+0.07

14.2

L	Sat Oct 17	at	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Imperial SC STXCL (6th)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	LTFC STXCL (10th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	FIERCE United STXCL (8th)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar RGV STXCL (2nd)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (7th)	0–1

Next: Wed Oct 28 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Sting CC STXCL Hennessy · Sun Nov 15 vs 210 FC STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Wed Oct 28	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (12th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (3rd)	1–4	4%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	210 FC STXCL (14th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–1	23%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (13th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	1–2	32%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Dynamos STXCL (1st)	0–3	2%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (4th)	1–4	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.79 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.