Lonestar RGV STXCL
ECNL Regional League Girls · STXCL GU17 · 15 teams · Lonestar SAT (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:00 PM
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.1 for, 0.8 against · 2.18 expected points)
| Season so far | Lonestar RGV STXCL | Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-1-0 | 2-0-3 |
| Points per game | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals for / game | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals against / game | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | W W D W W | L W L W L |
| Biggest win | 4–1 at Lonestar ATX STXCL White | 2–1 vs Imperial SC STXCL |
| Worst loss | — | 0–3 at Lonestar ATX STXCL White |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.66 | -0.53 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.86 | +0.50 |
Common opponents: RISE SC STXCL — we 1–1; they 0–2. Lonestar ATX STXCL White — we 4–1; they 0–3.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 3 of 5.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 66% / draw 20% / loss 14%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lonestar RGV STXCL – Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.67 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.67 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.33 PPG |
4th▼ down 2 | 4th▼ down 2 | 4th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 2.17 PPG |
5th▼ down 3 | 5th▼ down 3 | 5th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 5%
- 3rd 14%
- 4th 40%
- 5th 29%
- 6th 7%
- 7th 2%
- 8th 2%
- 9th 1%
- 10th <1%
- 11th <1%
- 12th
- 13th
- 14th
- 15th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.86 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dynamos STXCL | 3.00 (+0.40) | 1st (2.65) | 29 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
How the results connect
13 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Lonestar RGV STXCL to Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.40 · 2nd hardest of 15
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 02:00 PM |
Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold 9th · 2-0-3 · GD -5 |
Home ASP / CC |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–0 | 2.18 | 2.53 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 08:00 AM |
Dynamos STXCL 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +18 |
Away far trip
Dyess Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
0–2 | 0.53 | 2.24 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 08:00 AM |
Imperial SC STXCL 6th · 3-0-2 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Dyess Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
1–1 | 1.73 | 2.18 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 21 12:00 PM |
Challenge Aggieland STXCL 4th · 4-0-1 · GD +14 |
Home Classics Elite Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–2 | 1.15 | 2.07 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 08:00 AM |
Houstonians FC STXCL 11th · 1-1-3 · GD -8 |
Home Classics Elite Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
2–1 | 2.33 | 2.09 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 02:00 PM |
LTFC STXCL 10th · 2-1-3 · GD +6 |
Home ASP / CC |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.62 | 2.05 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 02:00 PM |
Lonestar SAT STXCL 7th · 2-0-2 · GD -6 |
Away ASP / CC |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
1–0 | 2.11 | 2.05 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 04:00 PM |
FIERCE United STXCL 8th · 3-1-3 · GD -1 |
Home ASP / CC |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 2.00 | 2.05 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 02:00 PM |
Sting CC STXCL Hennessy 3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +15 |
Away ASP / CC |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–2 | 0.92 | 1.97 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dynamos STXCL | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | +18 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.29 | -0.07 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at RISE SC STXCL · Sun Nov 8 vs Challenge Aggieland STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Lonestar RGV STXCL | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 13 | 2.60 | WWDWW | -0.86 | +0.40 | 59% | 4.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sat Nov 14 at Dynamos STXCL · Sun Nov 15 at Imperial SC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Sting CC STXCL Hennessy | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 10 | +15 | 15 | 2.50 | LWWWW | +0.29 | -0.45 | 99% | 2.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs 210 FC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at LTFC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC NW STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Challenge Aggieland STXCL | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 6 | +14 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWLW | -0.26 | -0.06 | 94% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Imperial SC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sun Nov 8 at Dynamos STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | RISE SC STXCL | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 13 | 2.17 | WDLWW | -0.75 | +0.46 | 40% | 4.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Dynamos STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at Challenge Aggieland STXCL · Sun Nov 15 vs FIERCE United STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Imperial SC STXCL | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 9 | +0 | 9 | 1.80 | LWLWW | -0.40 | +0.23 | 3% | 7.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Challenge Aggieland STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar SAT STXCL · Sun Nov 15 vs Lonestar RGV STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Lonestar SAT STXCL | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 6 | 1.50 | WLWL | -0.12 | +0.15 | 0% | 10.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FIERCE United STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sat Nov 7 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL White See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | FIERCE United STXCL | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 10 | 1.43 | WDWWL | -0.15 | +0.22 | 1% | 8.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar SAT STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL White · Sun Nov 15 at RISE SC STXCL See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 6 | 1.20 | LWLWL | +0.50 | -0.23 | 0% | 9.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Lonestar RGV STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar SAT STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Houstonians FC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | LTFC STXCL | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 7 | 1.17 | DWWLL | -0.50 | +0.31 | 3% | 7.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Sting CC STXCL Hennessy · Sat Nov 7 at 210 FC STXCL · Sat Nov 21 vs Dynamos STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Houstonians FC STXCL | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 4 | 0.80 | WDLLL | +0.63 | -0.23 | 0% | 10.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 15 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL White · Sat Nov 21 at Lonestar SAT STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | AHFC CENTRAL STXCL | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 20 | -17 | 4 | 0.67 | WLDLL | +0.47 | -0.09 | 0% | 13.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dynamos STXCL · Wed Oct 28 vs AHFC NW STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs 210 FC STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 13 | Lonestar ATX STXCL White | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3 | 0.60 | LLLLW | +0.53 | -0.25 | 0% | 10.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at FIERCE United STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at Lonestar SAT STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Challenge Aggieland STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 14 | 210 FC STXCL | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 3 | 0.50 | LLWLL | +0.55 | -0.25 | 0% | 12.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Sting CC STXCL Hennessy · Sat Nov 7 vs LTFC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 15 | AHFC NW STXCL | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.16 | +0.07 | 0% | 14.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Wed Oct 28 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Sting CC STXCL Hennessy · Sun Nov 15 vs 210 FC STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.79 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.