LV Heat Surf
ECNL Regional League Girls · Southwest GU17 · 17 teams · LV Heat Surf SC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM
Heritage Park Sports Complex, Field 6 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.2 for, 0.9 against · 2.21 expected points)
| Season so far | LV Heat Surf | Sporting California USA |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 11th | 17th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-2 | 0-0-4 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Goals against / game | 1.3 | 5.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W | L L L L |
| Biggest win | 1–0 vs Utah Royals FC-AZ RL | — |
| Worst loss | 0–3 vs Legends FC | 0–11 vs Legends FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.42 | -2.23 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.60 | +0.96 |
Common opponents: Legends FC — we 0–3; they 0–11.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Sporting California USA average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 3 of 4.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
Sporting California USA concede 5.0/game; worst result 0–11 vs Legends FC.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 at SLAMMERS FC, 0–3 vs Legends FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 68% / draw 19% / loss 14%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Confidence is low on their side
Sporting California USA have lost 4 straight (form: LLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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What a win does
Beach Futbol Club Gold sit 10th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.A point moves us above Beach Futbol Club Gold on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sporting California USA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LV Heat Surf – Sporting California USA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.50 PPG |
7th▲ up 4 | 7th▲ up 4 | 8th▲ up 3 |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
7th▲ up 4 | 7th▲ up 4 | 9th▲ up 2 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
11th— holds | 11th— holds | 12th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.75 PPG |
12th▼ down 1 | 12th▼ down 1 | 14th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th <1%
- 5th 1%
- 6th 2%
- 7th 6%
- 8th 10%
- 9th 13%
- 10th 15%
- 11th 14%
- 12th 12%
- 13th 12%
- 14th 8%
- 15th 4%
- 16th 1%
- 17th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slammers FC HB Koge | 3.00 (+2.00) | 1st (2.47) | 45 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection |
| 2 | LAFC | 2.60 (+1.60) | 2nd (2.24) | 39 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 3 | Blues | 2.33 (+1.33) | 5th (2.04) | 35 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 4 | LA Breakers | 2.25 (+1.25) | 4th (2.05) | 33 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 5 | Legends FC | 2.17 (+1.17) | 3rd (2.22) | 32 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 6 | SLAMMERS FC | 2.00 (+1.00) | 6th (1.70) | 29 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 7 | Rebels SC | 1.50 (+0.50) | 7th (1.35) | Win next game |
| 8 | San Diego Surf | 1.40 (+0.40) | 11th (1.15) | A point next game |
| 9 | Pateadores Soccer Club | 1.20 (+0.20) | 8th (1.34) | A point next game |
| 10 | Beach Futbol Club Gold | 1.00 (+0.00) | 9th (1.34) | A point next game |
How the results connect
2 chains · 4 teams
Paths of results that link LV Heat Surf to Sporting California USA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.13 · 10th hardest of 17
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
Sporting California USA 17th · 0-0-4 · GD -18 |
Home Heritage Park Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–0 | 2.21 | 1.30 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 TBD |
San Diego Surf 8th · 2-1-2 · GD -5 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
2–1 | 1.49 | 1.34 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 21 12:00 PM |
Arizona Arsenal 15th · 0-1-2 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Arizona Athletic Grounds |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.20 | 1.32 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 TBD |
Phoenix Rising FC 12th · 1-3-2 · GD -5 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–1 | 1.14 | 1.29 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Rebels SC 7th · 2-0-2 · GD -3 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.36 | 1.30 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Legends FC - Del Mar 13th · 0-3-3 · GD -6 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–0 | 1.63 | 1.34 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
LA Breakers 4th · 3-0-1 · GD +6 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
0–1 | 0.75 | 1.28 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Beach Futbol Club Gold 10th · 1-1-2 · GD -3 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
0–1 | 1.30 | 1.28 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Blues 3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +7 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
0–1 | 0.69 | 1.23 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Pateadores Soccer Club 9th · 2-0-3 · GD -3 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–1 | 1.08 | 1.22 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Slammers FC HB Koge 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +16 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
0–2 | 0.51 | 1.17 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Eagles SC 16th · 0-1-3 · GD -10 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
1–1 | 1.59 | 1.20 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
LAFC 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +13 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
0–2 | 0.41 | 1.15 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slammers FC HB Koge | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 3 | +16 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.47 | +0.11 | 98% | 1.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at SLAMMERS FC · Sat Oct 31 at LAFC · Sun Nov 1 vs Phoenix Rising FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | LAFC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 13 | 2.60 | DWWWW | -0.47 | +0.05 | 87% | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs LA Breakers · Sat Oct 31 vs Slammers FC HB Koge · Sun Nov 8 at Legends FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Blues | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 7 | 2.33 | WDW | -0.34 | -0.03 | 57% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Arizona Arsenal · Sun Nov 1 vs Pateadores Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Beach Futbol Club Gold See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | LA Breakers | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 9 | 2.25 | WWWL | +0.21 | -0.17 | 58% | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at LAFC · Sun Nov 1 at SLAMMERS FC · Sun Nov 22 vs Legends FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Legends FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 5 | +19 | 13 | 2.17 | DLWWW | -0.61 | +0.11 | 88% | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Rebels SC · Sun Nov 8 vs LAFC · Sun Nov 22 at LA Breakers See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | SLAMMERS FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 10 | 2.00 | DWWLW | -0.45 | +0.13 | 9% | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Slammers FC HB Koge · Sun Nov 1 vs LA Breakers · Sun Nov 22 at Eagles SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Rebels SC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 | 1.50 | WLLW | +0.38 | -0.13 | 1% | 9.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Pateadores Soccer Club · Sat Oct 24 vs Legends FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Arizona Arsenal See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | San Diego Surf | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 7 | 1.40 | LWWDL | -0.18 | +0.12 | 0% | 11.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Eagles SC · Sun Nov 1 at Rebels SC · Sun Nov 15 at LV Heat Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Pateadores Soccer Club | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 | 1.20 | LWLWL | +0.66 | -0.31 | 1% | 9.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Rebels SC · Sun Oct 25 vs Legends FC - Del Mar · Sun Nov 1 at Blues See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Beach Futbol Club Gold | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 | 1.00 | DLWL | +1.16 | -0.42 | 0% | 9.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Legends FC - Del Mar · Sun Nov 8 vs Blues · Sun Nov 22 at Rebels SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | LV Heat Surf | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 3 | 1.00 | WLL | +0.60 | -0.13 | 0% | 10.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting California USA · Sun Nov 15 vs San Diego Surf · Sat Nov 21 at Arizona Arsenal See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Phoenix Rising FC | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 6 | 1.00 | WDDLL | +0.17 | -0.07 | 0% | 10.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Eagles SC · Sun Nov 1 at Slammers FC HB Koge · Sun Nov 15 vs Rebels SC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Legends FC - Del Mar | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 3 | 0.50 | LLDDD | -0.52 | +0.34 | 0% | 14.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Pateadores Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 vs Beach Futbol Club Gold · Sat Mar 20 vs LA Breakers See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Utah Royals FC-AZ RL | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2 | 0.40 | DLLLD | -0.34 | +0.17 | 0% | 14.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 22 vs Arizona Arsenal · Sat Mar 20 vs Slammers FC HB Koge · Sun Mar 21 vs Sporting California USA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Arizona Arsenal | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 | 0.33 | DLL | +0.71 | -0.15 | 0% | 11.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Blues · Sun Oct 25 at Rebels SC · Sat Nov 21 vs LV Heat Surf See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Eagles SC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 1 | 0.25 | LLLD | +0.54 | -0.14 | 0% | 14.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at San Diego Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Phoenix Rising FC · Sat Nov 7 at Sporting California USA See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Sporting California USA | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 20 | -18 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.96 | -0.16 | 0% | 16.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at LV Heat Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Eagles SC · Sun Nov 8 vs Pateadores Soccer Club See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.77 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.