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Utah Royals FC-AZ RL

ECNL Regional League Girls · Southwest GU17 · 17 teams · Utah Royals FC - AZ (all teams)

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14th
0-2-3 record · 5 played
0.40 points per game
-5 goal diff · 4–9
DLLLDlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 14.0
-0.34 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 22, 01:00 PM

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Utah Royals FC-AZ RL
14th · 0.40 PPG
vs
Arizona Arsenal
15th · 0.33 PPG

Bell Road Sports Complex, Field 16 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.3 for, 1.4 against · 1.31 expected points)

Season so farUtah Royals FC-AZ RLArizona Arsenal
Position14th15th
Record (W-D-L)0-2-30-1-2
Points per game0.400.33
Goals for / game0.81.0
Goals against / game1.82.3
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless32
Form (recent first)D L L L DL L D
Biggest win——
Worst loss0–3 at Rebels SC0–3 at LA Breakers
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.68-0.45
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.34+0.71

Common opponents: Phoenix Rising FC — we 2–3; they 3–3.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–1 at LV Heat Surf, 0–3 at Rebels SC, 0–0 at Legends FC - Del Mar.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 35%; a draw (25%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Legends FC - Del Mar sit 13th on 0.50 PPG; we are on 0.40.

    A point moves us above Legends FC - Del Mar on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Arizona Arsenal game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Utah Royals FC-AZ RL – Arizona Arsenal) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Nov 16 – Sun Nov 22); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.50 PPG		 14th— holds 14th— holds 15th▼ down 1
Win
0.83 PPG		 13th▲ up 1 13th▲ up 1 13th▲ up 1
Draw
0.50 PPG		 14th— holds 14th— holds 15th▼ down 1
Loss
0.33 PPG		 15th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 1 16th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 13th if every rival drops points, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
14.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th 3%
  11. 11th 5%
  12. 12th 8%
  13. 13th 15%
  14. 14th 24%
  15. 15th 22%
  16. 16th 16%
  17. 17th 5%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.19 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Slammers FC HB Koge 3.00 (+2.60) 1st (2.47) 46 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 LAFC 2.60 (+2.20) 2nd (2.24) 40 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Blues 2.33 (+1.93) 5th (2.04) 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
4 LA Breakers 2.25 (+1.85) 4th (2.05) 34 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
5 Legends FC 2.17 (+1.77) 3rd (2.22) 33 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 SLAMMERS FC 2.00 (+1.60) 6th (1.70) 30 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
7 Rebels SC 1.50 (+1.10) 7th (1.35) 22 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
8 San Diego Surf 1.40 (+1.00) 11th (1.15) 21 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
9 Pateadores Soccer Club 1.20 (+0.80) 8th (1.34) 18 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
10 Beach Futbol Club Gold 1.00 (+0.60) 9th (1.34) 14 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
11 LV Heat Surf 1.00 (+0.60) 12th (1.15) 14 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
12 Phoenix Rising FC 1.00 (+0.60) 10th (1.16) 14 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
13 Legends FC - Del Mar 0.50 (+0.10) 16th (0.67) A point next game

How the results connect

3 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Utah Royals FC-AZ RL to Arizona Arsenal through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 even
2 favour them
-2.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–3 3–3 0–0 1–1 0–3 0–4 1–0 Utah Royals FC-AZ RL 14th Phoenix Rising FC 12th Legends FC - Del Mar 13th Rebels SC 7th Slammers FC HB Koge 1st Arizona Arsenal 15th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.17 · 2nd hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 22
01:00 PM		 Arizona Arsenal
15th · 0-1-2 · GD -4		 Home
Bell Road Sports Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
35%		 1–1 1.31 0.55 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD		 Slammers FC HB Koge
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +16		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
8%		 0–2 0.40 0.53 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 Sporting California USA
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -18		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
66%		 2–1 2.15 0.73 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
TBD		 LAFC
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +13		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
10%		 0–2 0.44 0.70 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 San Diego Surf
8th · 2-1-2 · GD -5		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
38%		 2–2 1.34 0.76 Upside
Sat Apr 24
01:00 PM		 Eagles SC
16th · 0-1-3 · GD -10		 Home
Bell Road Sports Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 1–1 1.73 0.85 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
01:00 PM		 Blues
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +7		 Home
Bell Road Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
12%		 0–2 0.57 0.83 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD		 Beach Futbol Club Gold
10th · 1-1-2 · GD -3		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
24%		 0–1 0.99 0.84 Upside
Sun May 2
01:00 PM		 LA Breakers
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +6		 Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
10%		 0–2 0.46 0.81 Upside
Sat May 15
TBD		 Legends FC
5th · 4-1-1 · GD +19		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
4%		 0–3 0.21 0.77 Upside
Sun May 16
TBD		 Pateadores Soccer Club
9th · 2-0-3 · GD -3		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
24%		 1–1 0.95 0.78 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Slammers FC HB Koge 6600 193+16 183.00 WWWWW -0.47 +0.11 98% 1.7
2 LAFC 5410 174+13 132.60 DWWWW -0.47 +0.05 87% 2.9
3 Blues 3210 81+7 72.33 WDW -0.34 -0.03 57% 4.2
4 LA Breakers 4301 93+6 92.25 WWWL +0.21 -0.17 58% 4.1
5 Legends FC 6411 245+19 132.17 DLWWW -0.61 +0.11 88% 2.8
6 SLAMMERS FC 5311 95+4 102.00 DWWLW -0.45 +0.13 9% 6.3
7 Rebels SC 4202 69-3 61.50 WLLW +0.38 -0.13 1% 9.1
8 San Diego Surf 5212 1419-5 71.40 LWWDL -0.18 +0.12 0% 11.0
9 Pateadores Soccer Club 5203 710-3 61.20 LWLWL +0.66 -0.31 1% 9.1
10 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4112 36-3 41.00 DLWL +1.16 -0.42 0% 9.1
11 LV Heat Surf 3102 14-3 31.00 WLL +0.60 -0.13 0% 10.7
12 Phoenix Rising FC 6132 1318-5 61.00 WDDLL +0.17 -0.07 0% 10.7
13 Legends FC - Del Mar 6033 612-6 30.50 LLDDD -0.52 +0.34 0% 14.9
14 Utah Royals FC-AZ RL 5023 49-5 20.40 DLLLD -0.34 +0.17 0% 14.0
15 Arizona Arsenal 3012 37-4 10.33 DLL +0.71 -0.15 0% 11.1
16 Eagles SC 4013 212-10 10.25 LLLD +0.54 -0.14 0% 14.8
17 Sporting California USA 4004 220-18 00.00 LLLL +0.96 -0.16 0% 16.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.77 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.