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LA Breakers

ECNL Regional League Girls · Southwest GU17 · 17 teams · LA Breakers FC (all teams)

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4th
3-0-1 record · 4 played
2.25 points per game
+6 goal diff · 9–3
WWWLlast 4
59% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.1
+0.21 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM

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LA Breakers
4th · 2.25 PPG
at
LAFC
2nd · 2.60 PPG

Alemany High School , Softball 11v11 Grass ↗ · grass far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.4 for, 2.0 against · 1.02 expected points)

Season so farLA BreakersLAFC
Position4th2nd
Record (W-D-L)3-0-14-1-0
Points per game2.252.60
Goals for / game2.33.4
Goals against / game0.80.8
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)L W W WW W W W D
Biggest win3–0 vs Arizona Arsenal5–1 at Rebels SC
Worst loss1–2 vs Slammers FC HB Koge—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.92+1.48
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.21-0.47

Common opponents: Beach Futbol Club Gold — we 2–0; they 1–1. Pateadores Soccer Club — we 3–1; they 2–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    LAFC score 3.4/game — well above the league's 1.8.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    LAFC concede only 0.8/game with 1 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 27%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    LAFC have won 4 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Grass field
    Venue listed as "Softball 11v11 Grass" at Alemany High School .

    If the team trains on turf: the ball will be slower and bounce less true. Weight passes harder, favour early crosses in the final third, and bring FG/SG cleats. Warm up on the field, not the track.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Alemany High School .

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Blues sit 3rd on 2.33 PPG; we are on 2.25.

    A point moves us above Blues on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LAFC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LA Breakers – LAFC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.00 PPG
5th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 2
Win
2.40 PPG
2nd▲ up 2 3rd▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 1
Draw
2.00 PPG
5th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 2
Loss
1.80 PPG
6th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

4% finish 1st
59% top 4
41% below the top 4
4.1 average finish
  1. 1st 4%
  2. 2nd 12%
  3. 3rd 18%
  4. 4th 24%
  5. 5th 26%
  6. 6th 11%
  7. 7th 3%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.81 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Slammers FC HB Koge 3.00 (+0.75) 1st (2.47) 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
2 LAFC 2.60 (+0.35) 2nd (2.24) 33 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
3 Blues 2.33 (+0.08) 5th (2.04) A point next game

How the results connect

6 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link LA Breakers to LAFC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
1 even
2 favour them
+0.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–1 1–2 2–0 1–1 2–0 0–4 1–2 4–1 4–0 1–5 3–0 3–3 1–5 LA Breakers 4th Pateadores Soccer C… 9th Beach Futbol Club G… 10th Slammers FC HB Koge 1st Arizona Arsenal 15th Eagles SC 16th Rebels SC 7th Phoenix Rising FC 12th LAFC 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.17 · 15th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
LAFC
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +13
Away far trip
Alemany High School · grass
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–1 1.02 2.00 Upside
Sun Nov 1
04:00 PM
SLAMMERS FC
6th · 3-1-1 · GD +4
Away far trip
Saddleback College · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
1–1 1.55 1.93 Swing game
Sun Nov 22
11:00 AM
Legends FC
5th · 4-1-1 · GD +19
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–2 1.11 1.81 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Legends FC - Del Mar
13th · 0-3-3 · GD -6
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–0 2.24 1.86 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
09:00 AM
Blues
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +7
Home
Silverlakes
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–1 1.37 1.81 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD
LV Heat Surf
11th · 1-0-2 · GD -3
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
1–0 2.02 1.83 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
TBD
Eagles SC
16th · 0-1-3 · GD -10
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
2–0 2.42 1.88 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
01:00 PM
Rebels SC
7th · 2-0-2 · GD -3
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
2–1 2.27 1.92 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
09:00 AM
Phoenix Rising FC
12th · 1-3-2 · GD -5
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
75%
3–1 2.37 1.95 Bank it
Sat May 1
01:00 PM
Sporting California USA
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -18
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
4–0 2.84 2.01 Bank it
Sun May 2
01:00 PM
Utah Royals FC-AZ RL
14th · 0-2-3 · GD -5
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
2–0 2.37 2.04 Bank it
Sun May 9
01:00 PM
San Diego Surf
8th · 2-1-2 · GD -5
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
3–1 2.28 2.05 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Slammers FC HB Koge 6600 193+16 183.00 WWWWW -0.47 +0.11 97% 1.8
2 LAFC 5410 174+13 132.60 DWWWW -0.47 +0.05 86% 2.9
3 Blues 3210 81+7 72.33 WDW -0.34 -0.03 58% 4.2
4 LA Breakers 4301 93+6 92.25 WWWL +0.21 -0.17 59% 4.1
5 Legends FC 6411 245+19 132.17 DLWWW -0.61 +0.11 88% 2.8
6 SLAMMERS FC 5311 95+4 102.00 DWWLW -0.45 +0.13 11% 6.2
7 Rebels SC 4202 69-3 61.50 WLLW +0.38 -0.13 1% 9.0
8 San Diego Surf 5212 1419-5 71.40 LWWDL -0.18 +0.12 0% 11.0
9 Pateadores Soccer Club 5203 710-3 61.20 LWLWL +0.66 -0.31 1% 9.1
10 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4112 36-3 41.00 DLWL +1.16 -0.42 0% 9.0
11 LV Heat Surf 3102 14-3 31.00 WLL +0.60 -0.13 0% 10.8
12 Phoenix Rising FC 6132 1318-5 61.00 WDDLL +0.17 -0.07 0% 10.6
13 Legends FC - Del Mar 6033 612-6 30.50 LLDDD -0.52 +0.34 0% 14.9
14 Utah Royals FC-AZ RL 5023 49-5 20.40 DLLLD -0.34 +0.17 0% 14.0
15 Arizona Arsenal 3012 37-4 10.33 DLL +0.71 -0.15 0% 11.3
16 Eagles SC 4013 212-10 10.25 LLLD +0.54 -0.14 0% 14.7
17 Sporting California USA 4004 220-18 00.00 LLLL +0.96 -0.16 0% 16.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.77 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.