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Sting WTX NTX

ECNL Regional League Girls · North Texas GU18/19 · 22 teams · Sting Soccer Club (all teams)

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21st
0-1-7 record · 8 played
0.13 points per game
-18 goal diff · 4–22
LLDLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 20.4
+0.79 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:30 PM

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Sting WTX NTX
21st · 0.13 PPG
at
Kernow Storm FC NTX Penna
20th · 0.14 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 15 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.8 for, 2.0 against · 1.25 expected points)

Season so farSting WTX NTXKernow Storm FC NTX Penna
Position21st20th
Record (W-D-L)0-1-70-1-6
Points per game0.130.14
Goals for / game0.51.1
Goals against / game2.84.6
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless53
Form (recent first)L L D L LL L L L D
Biggest win——
Worst loss0–5 at SOLAR NTX Naizer0–8 at SOLAR NTX Naizer
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.39-2.02
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.79+0.76

Common opponents: Falls Town FC NTX — we 0–4; they 1–1. SOLAR RED NTX — we 0–3; they 0–5. DKSC NTX Quintana — we 0–2; they 0–1. SOLAR NTX Naizer — we 0–5; they 0–8. Dallas Texans NTX — we 2–3; they 1–6.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Kernow Storm FC NTX Penna concede 4.6/game; worst result 0–8 at SOLAR NTX Naizer.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–4 at Falls Town FC NTX, 0–3 vs SOLAR RED NTX, 0–2 at DKSC NTX Quintana, 0–5 at SOLAR NTX Naizer, 0–0 vs SOLAR WHITE NTX.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 34%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Kernow Storm FC NTX Penna have lost 4 straight (form: DLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:30 PM at Dallas Soccer Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Kernow Storm FC NTX Penna sit 20th on 0.14 PPG; we are on 0.13.

    A point moves us above Kernow Storm FC NTX Penna on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Kernow Storm FC NTX Penna game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sting WTX NTX – Kernow Storm FC NTX Penna) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.11 PPG		 21st— holds 21st— holds 22nd▼ down 1
Win
0.44 PPG		 19th▲ up 2 19th▲ up 2 20th▲ up 1
Draw
0.22 PPG		 21st— holds 20th▲ up 1 22nd▼ down 1
Loss
0.11 PPG		 21st— holds 21st— holds 22nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 21st even if every rival loses, and as low as 22nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
20.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th <1%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th <1%
  18. 18th 1%
  19. 19th 6%
  20. 20th 46%
  21. 21st 45%
  22. 22nd 2%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 1.47 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 SOLAR RED NTX 2.63 (+2.50) 1st (2.54) 39 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 NTX Celtic FC NTX 2.40 (+2.27) 3rd (2.15) 35 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 2.29 (+2.16) 5th (2.00) 34 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 SOLAR NTX Naizer 2.25 (+2.12) 2nd (2.36) 33 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Kernow Storm FC NTX Bertlesen 2.22 (+2.09) 4th (2.02) 33 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 FC Dallas Youth NTX 2.14 (+2.01) 6th (1.99) 32 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 SOLAR WHITE NTX 2.00 (+1.87) 7th (1.88) 29 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
8 Dallas Texans NTX 2.00 (+1.87) 8th (1.85) 29 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
9 Falls Town FC NTX 1.70 (+1.57) 9th (1.73) 25 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
10 Fever United FC NTX 1.56 (+1.43) 10th (1.56) 23 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
11 DKSC NTX Quintana 1.50 (+1.37) 13th (1.35) 22 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
12 DKSC WHITE NTX 1.50 (+1.37) 14th (1.32) 22 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
13 SOLAR NTX Hedges 1.43 (+1.30) 11th (1.43) 21 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
14 Sting Black NTX 1.38 (+1.25) 12th (1.39) 20 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
15 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 1.25 (+1.12) 16th (1.11) 18 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
16 SOLAR NTX Hernandez 1.13 (+1.00) 15th (1.19) 16 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
17 DKSC NTX 1.00 (+0.87) 17th (1.07) 14 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
18 SOLAR BLUE NTX 0.86 (+0.73) 18th (1.05) 12 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
19 Sting Royal NTX 0.33 (+0.20) 19th (0.77) A point next game
20 Kernow Storm FC NTX Penna 0.14 (+0.01) 20th (0.36) Already ahead

How the results connect

26 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Sting WTX NTX to Kernow Storm FC NTX Penna through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

16 favour us
1 even
9 favour them
+1.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–2 1–0 0–3 5–0 0–5 8–0 2–3 6–1 0–4 1–1 1–3 1–4 5–2 2–0 1–5 2–0 1–2 0–1 1–2 Sting WTX NTX 21st DKSC NTX Quintana 11th SOLAR RED NTX 1st SOLAR NTX Naizer 4th Dallas Texans NTX 8th Falls Town FC NTX 9th FC Dallas Youth NTX 6th SOLAR NTX Hernandez 16th Kernow Storm FC NTX… 20th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

1st 11th 22nd Aug 22 Sep 5 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 11 Oct 22

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.08 · 11th hardest of 22

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:30 PM		 Kernow Storm FC NTX Penna
20th · 0-1-6 · GD -24		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
34%		 1–2 1.25 0.25 Upside
Sun Oct 25
08:00 AM		 Fever United FC NTX
10th · 4-2-3 · GD +12		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
12%		 1–2 0.49 0.27 Upside
Sat Nov 7
05:10 PM		 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX
3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +7		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
8%		 0–2 0.40 0.29 Upside
Sun Nov 8
11:40 AM		 Sting Black NTX
14th · 3-2-3 · GD +7		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–2 0.57 0.31 Upside
Sat Apr 10
11:40 AM		 NTX Celtic FC NTX
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +13		 Away
Railroad Park 		●●●●● Very tough
4%		 1–4 0.17 0.30 Upside
Sun Apr 11
08:00 AM		 SOLAR NTX Hedges
13th · 3-1-3 · GD -1		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
16%		 1–2 0.66 0.32 Upside
Sun Apr 25
09:50 AM		 DKSC NTX
17th · 2-1-4 · GD -4		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
18%		 1–2 0.72 0.35 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 SOLAR RED NTX 8701 296+23 212.63 WWWWL -0.09 -0.57 99% 1.5
2 NTX Celtic FC NTX 5401 2310+13 122.40 WWWWL -0.18 -0.07 63% 4.3
3 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 7511 147+7 162.29 WLWWW -0.37 -0.15 32% 5.9
4 SOLAR NTX Naizer 8602 308+22 182.25 LWWWW -0.10 -0.59 95% 2.4
5 Kernow Storm FC NTX Bertlesen 9621 3717+20 202.22 WWWDW -0.43 +0.57 43% 5.1
6 FC Dallas Youth NTX 7502 169+7 152.14 WWLLW +0.46 +0.10 32% 5.9
7 SOLAR WHITE NTX 7421 144+10 142.00 WWDDW -0.99 +0.24 19% 6.9
8 Dallas Texans NTX 6402 158+7 122.00 LWWWL -0.41 -0.19 14% 7.1
9 Falls Town FC NTX 10523 1715+2 171.70 WWLDW +0.16 -0.86 2% 8.6
10 Fever United FC NTX 9423 2816+12 141.56 LWLDD -0.75 +0.19 1% 10.2
11 DKSC NTX Quintana 6303 59-4 91.50 WLWLL +0.07 -0.28 0% 13.1
12 DKSC WHITE NTX 8404 1419-5 121.50 WWLWW +0.06 +0.30 0% 13.6
13 SOLAR NTX Hedges 7313 1516-1 101.43 WLWWD +0.64 +0.02 0% 12.1
14 Sting Black NTX 8323 2518+7 111.38 LWLWD -0.74 +0.27 0% 12.2
15 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 8314 1829-11 101.25 LWLLW +0.14 +0.12 0% 16.0
16 SOLAR NTX Hernandez 8305 1315-2 91.13 LWLWL +0.46 +0.24 0% 14.7
17 DKSC NTX 7214 1317-4 71.00 WLLWL -0.66 +0.05 0% 16.0
18 SOLAR BLUE NTX 7205 1216-4 60.86 WLLLL +0.29 -0.04 0% 16.2
19 Sting Royal NTX 6024 514-9 20.33 LDLDL +0.75 -0.17 0% 18.4
20 Kernow Storm FC NTX Penna 7016 832-24 10.14 DLLLL +0.76 +0.23 0% 20.5
21 Sting WTX NTX 8017 422-18 10.13 LLDLL +0.79 +0.08 0% 20.4
22 NTX Celtic FC Green NTX 8008 048-48 00.00 LLLLL +0.19 +0.46 0% 21.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.13 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.