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Kernow Storm FC NTX Bertlesen

ECNL Regional League Girls · North Texas GU18/19 · 22 teams · Kernow Storm FC (all teams)

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5th
6-2-1 record · 9 played
2.22 points per game
+20 goal diff · 37–17
WWWDWlast 5
36% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.3
-0.42 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 05:10 PM

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Kernow Storm FC NTX Bertlesen
5th · 2.22 PPG
vs
SOLAR RED NTX
1st · 2.63 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 8 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.1 for, 2.9 against · 1.00 expected points)

Season so farKernow Storm FC NTX BertlesenSOLAR RED NTX
Position5th1st
Record (W-D-L)6-2-17-0-1
Points per game2.222.63
Goals for / game4.13.6
Goals against / game1.90.8
Clean sheets13
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W D W W WL W W W W
Biggest win10–2 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX6–0 vs DKSC WHITE NTX
Worst loss1–2 vs SOLAR WHITE NTX0–2 at SOLAR NTX Naizer
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.46+2.02
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.42-0.09

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    SOLAR RED NTX score 3.6/game — well above the league's 2.1.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    SOLAR RED NTX concede only 0.8/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 28%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    SOLAR NTX Naizer sit 4th on 2.25 PPG; we are on 2.22.

    A point moves us above SOLAR NTX Naizer on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SOLAR RED NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Kernow Storm FC NTX Bertlesen – SOLAR RED NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.10 PPG
7th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 3
Win
2.30 PPG
3rd▲ up 2 4th▲ up 1 5th— holds
Draw
2.10 PPG
7th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 3
Loss
2.00 PPG
7th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
36% top 4
64% below the top 4
5.3 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 5%
  3. 3rd 10%
  4. 4th 20%
  5. 5th 22%
  6. 6th 16%
  7. 7th 13%
  8. 8th 7%
  9. 9th 4%
  10. 10th 2%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.53 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 SOLAR RED NTX 2.63 (+0.41) 1st (2.53) 20 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
2 NTX Celtic FC NTX 2.50 (+0.28) 3rd (2.31) 18 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
3 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 2.29 (+0.07) 5th (2.00) A point next game
4 SOLAR NTX Naizer 2.25 (+0.03) 2nd (2.35) A point next game

How the results connect

18 chains · 15 teams

Paths of results that link Kernow Storm FC NTX Bertlesen to SOLAR RED NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
2 even
14 favour them
-2.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–3 1–3 2–0 3–1 7–4 0–5 4–0 0–3 1–0 1–3 4–1 0–6 2–0 1–5 6–5 4–1 2–2 2–1 1–4 2–5 0–2 1–3 1–2 0–0 1–1 Kernow Storm FC NTX… 5th Falls Town FC NTX 9th Sting Black NTX 14th NTX Celtic FC NTX 2nd FC Dallas Youth Blu… 3rd SOLAR WHITE NTX 8th SOLAR NTX Naizer 4th Kernow Storm FC NTX… 20th Sting WTX NTX 21st SOLAR NTX Hernandez 16th DKSC WHITE NTX 12th DKSC NTX Quintana 11th FC Dallas Youth NTX 7th SOLAR NTX Hedges 13th SOLAR RED NTX 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

1st 11th 22nd Aug 22 Sep 5 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 11 Oct 22 Oct 24

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.58 · 1st hardest of 22

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 1
05:10 PM
SOLAR RED NTX
1st · 7-0-1 · GD +23
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
28%
2–2 1.00 2.10 Upside
Sun Apr 4
05:10 PM
DKSC WHITE NTX
12th · 4-0-4 · GD -5
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
3–1 2.16 2.11 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
01:30 PM
SOLAR BLUE NTX
18th · 2-0-5 · GD -4
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
3–1 2.16 2.11 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
05:10 PM
DKSC NTX Quintana
11th · 3-0-3 · GD -4
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
75%
3–1 2.40 2.13 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
01:30 PM
Dallas Texans NTX
6th · 5-0-2 · GD +8
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
2–1 1.78 2.11 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
01:30 PM
SOLAR NTX Naizer
4th · 6-0-2 · GD +22
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
21%
2–3 0.79 2.02 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 SOLAR RED NTX 8701 296+23 212.63 WWWWL -0.09 -0.57 98% 1.6
2 NTX Celtic FC NTX 6501 3111+20 152.50 WWWLW -0.36 -0.02 83% 3.0
3 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 7511 147+7 162.29 WLWWW -0.37 -0.15 27% 6.0
4 SOLAR NTX Naizer 8602 308+22 182.25 LWWWW -0.11 -0.58 93% 2.6
5 Kernow Storm FC NTX Bertlesen 9621 3717+20 202.22 WWWDW -0.42 +0.58 36% 5.3
6 Dallas Texans NTX 7502 168+8 152.14 WWWLW -0.49 -0.11 18% 6.6
7 FC Dallas Youth NTX 7502 169+7 152.14 WWLLW +0.46 +0.10 28% 6.1
8 SOLAR WHITE NTX 7421 144+10 142.00 WWDDW -1.08 +0.31 15% 7.2
9 Falls Town FC NTX 10523 1715+2 171.70 WWLDW +0.15 -0.86 1% 8.8
10 Fever United FC NTX 9423 2816+12 141.56 LWLDD -0.75 +0.20 1% 10.3
11 DKSC NTX Quintana 6303 59-4 91.50 WLWLL +0.07 -0.28 0% 13.0
12 DKSC WHITE NTX 8404 1419-5 121.50 WWLWW +0.13 +0.30 0% 13.4
13 SOLAR NTX Hedges 7313 1516-1 101.43 WLWWD +0.56 +0.09 0% 12.2
14 Sting Black NTX 8323 2518+7 111.38 LWLWD -0.73 +0.27 0% 12.2
15 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 8314 1829-11 101.25 LWLLW +0.14 +0.12 0% 15.8
16 SOLAR NTX Hernandez 8305 1315-2 91.13 LWLWL +0.46 +0.25 0% 14.5
17 DKSC NTX 8215 1425-11 70.88 LLWLL -0.27 -0.15 0% 17.2
18 SOLAR BLUE NTX 7205 1216-4 60.86 WLLLL +0.29 -0.04 0% 16.0
19 Sting Royal NTX 7025 515-10 20.29 DLDLL +0.73 -0.27 0% 18.6
20 Kernow Storm FC NTX Penna 7016 832-24 10.14 DLLLL +0.76 +0.23 0% 20.4
21 Sting WTX NTX 8017 422-18 10.13 LLDLL +0.78 +0.08 0% 20.4
22 NTX Celtic FC Green NTX 8008 048-48 00.00 LLLLL +0.12 +0.46 0% 21.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.14 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.