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NTX Celtic FC NTX

ECNL Regional League Girls · North Texas GU18/19 · 22 teams · NTX Celtic FC (all teams)

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2nd
4-0-1 record · 5 played
2.40 points per game
+13 goal diff · 23–10
WWWWLlast 5
64% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.1
-0.18 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 08:00 AM

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NTX Celtic FC NTX
2nd · 2.40 PPG
at
DKSC NTX
17th · 1.00 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 13 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.7 for, 1.9 against · 2.26 expected points)

Season so farNTX Celtic FC NTXDKSC NTX
Position2nd17th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-12-1-4
Points per game2.401.00
Goals for / game4.61.9
Goals against / game2.02.4
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)L W W W WL W L L W
Biggest win6–0 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX6–0 vs NTX Celtic FC Green NTX
Worst loss5–6 at Kernow Storm FC NTX Bertlesen0–4 at SOLAR NTX Hedges
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.46-0.54
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.18-0.66

Common opponents: Sting Royal NTX — we 4–1; they 1–1. SOLAR BLUE NTX — we 4–2; they 2–1. FC Dallas Youth Red NTX — we 6–0; they 3–5. Kernow Storm FC NTX Bertlesen — we 5–6; they 1–2.

Game plan

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 71% chance; likely score 3–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 08:00 AM at Dallas Soccer Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 08:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the DKSC NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (NTX Celtic FC NTX – DKSC NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.50 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.50 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.17 PPG
5th▼ down 3 5th▼ down 3 6th▼ down 4
Loss
2.00 PPG
6th▼ down 4 7th▼ down 5 7th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

7% finish 1st
64% top 4
36% below the top 4
4.1 average finish
  1. 1st 7%
  2. 2nd 15%
  3. 3rd 26%
  4. 4th 16%
  5. 5th 12%
  6. 6th 9%
  7. 7th 7%
  8. 8th 3%
  9. 9th 3%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.80 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 SOLAR RED NTX 2.63 (+0.23) 1st (2.54) 28 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection

How the results connect

16 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link NTX Celtic FC NTX to DKSC NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

12 favour us
2 even
2 favour them
+3.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
5–6 2–1 4–2 1–2 4–1 1–1 6–0 5–3 1–5 4–1 4–0 0–6 2–10 1–2 4–0 5–0 0–2 4–1 NTX Celtic FC NTX 2nd Kernow Storm FC NTX… 5th SOLAR BLUE NTX 18th Sting Royal NTX 19th FC Dallas Youth Red… 15th DKSC WHITE NTX 12th NTX Celtic FC Green… 22nd SOLAR WHITE NTX 7th DKSC NTX 17th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

1st 11th 22nd Aug 22 Sep 5 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 11 Oct 22

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.07 · 15th hardest of 22

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
08:00 AM
DKSC NTX
17th · 2-1-4 · GD -4
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
3–1 2.26 2.38 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
11:40 AM
FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX
3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +7
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
2–1 1.79 2.29 Swing game
Thu Nov 5
08:15 PM
Sting Black NTX
14th · 3-2-3 · GD +7
Away
Railroad Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
3–2 1.81 2.23 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
09:50 AM
SOLAR WHITE NTX
7th · 4-2-1 · GD +10
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
1–1 1.55 2.16 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
11:40 AM
SOLAR NTX Hernandez
16th · 3-0-5 · GD -2
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
2–1 1.92 2.13 Swing game
Thu Apr 8
06:30 PM
Fever United FC NTX
10th · 4-2-3 · GD +12
Away
Railroad Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
3–2 1.61 2.09 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
11:40 AM
Sting WTX NTX
21st · 0-1-7 · GD -18
Home
Railroad Park
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
4–1 2.77 2.14 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
08:00 AM
FC Dallas Youth NTX
6th · 5-0-2 · GD +7
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–2 1.70 2.11 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
09:50 AM
SOLAR NTX Hedges
13th · 3-1-3 · GD -1
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
58%
3–2 1.89 2.09 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
09:50 AM
Kernow Storm FC NTX Penna
20th · 0-1-6 · GD -24
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
95%
6–1 2.87 2.15 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 SOLAR RED NTX 8701 296+23 212.63 WWWWL -0.09 -0.57 99% 1.5
2 NTX Celtic FC NTX 5401 2310+13 122.40 WWWWL -0.18 -0.07 64% 4.1
3 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 7511 147+7 162.29 WLWWW -0.37 -0.15 31% 5.9
4 SOLAR NTX Naizer 8602 308+22 182.25 LWWWW -0.10 -0.59 94% 2.4
5 Kernow Storm FC NTX Bertlesen 9621 3717+20 202.22 WWWDW -0.43 +0.57 41% 5.1
6 FC Dallas Youth NTX 7502 169+7 152.14 WWLLW +0.46 +0.10 32% 5.9
7 SOLAR WHITE NTX 7421 144+10 142.00 WWDDW -0.99 +0.24 19% 6.9
8 Dallas Texans NTX 6402 158+7 122.00 LWWWL -0.41 -0.19 16% 7.0
9 Falls Town FC NTX 10523 1715+2 171.70 WWLDW +0.16 -0.86 1% 8.7
10 Fever United FC NTX 9423 2816+12 141.56 LWLDD -0.75 +0.19 1% 10.3
11 DKSC NTX Quintana 6303 59-4 91.50 WLWLL +0.07 -0.28 0% 13.2
12 DKSC WHITE NTX 8404 1419-5 121.50 WWLWW +0.06 +0.30 0% 13.7
13 SOLAR NTX Hedges 7313 1516-1 101.43 WLWWD +0.64 +0.02 0% 12.0
14 Sting Black NTX 8323 2518+7 111.38 LWLWD -0.74 +0.27 0% 12.3
15 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 8314 1829-11 101.25 LWLLW +0.14 +0.12 0% 15.9
16 SOLAR NTX Hernandez 8305 1315-2 91.13 LWLWL +0.46 +0.24 0% 14.6
17 DKSC NTX 7214 1317-4 71.00 WLLWL -0.66 +0.05 0% 15.9
18 SOLAR BLUE NTX 7205 1216-4 60.86 WLLLL +0.29 -0.04 0% 16.3
19 Sting Royal NTX 6024 514-9 20.33 LDLDL +0.75 -0.17 0% 18.4
20 Kernow Storm FC NTX Penna 7016 832-24 10.14 DLLLL +0.76 +0.23 0% 20.5
21 Sting WTX NTX 8017 422-18 10.13 LLDLL +0.79 +0.08 0% 20.4
22 NTX Celtic FC Green NTX 8008 048-48 00.00 LLLLL +0.19 +0.46 0% 21.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.13 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.