TableChase Clubs

FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX

ECNL Regional League Girls · North Texas GU18/19 · 22 teams · FC Dallas Youth (all teams)

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3rd
5-1-1 record · 7 played
2.29 points per game
+7 goal diff · 14–7
WLWWWlast 5
28% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.0
-0.37 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:30 PM

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FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX
3rd · 2.29 PPG
at
Sting Black NTX
14th · 1.38 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 7 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.9 against · 1.47 expected points)

Season so farFC Dallas Youth Blue NTXSting Black NTX
Position3rd14th
Record (W-D-L)5-1-13-2-3
Points per game2.291.38
Goals for / game2.03.1
Goals against / game1.02.3
Clean sheets32
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W W W L WD W L W L
Biggest win4–0 at NTX Celtic FC Green NTX7–0 at NTX Celtic FC Green NTX
Worst loss2–3 at DKSC WHITE NTX2–5 vs SOLAR NTX Hernandez
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.56+0.34
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.37-0.73

Common opponents: Kernow Storm FC NTX Bertlesen — we 2–2; they 1–3. NTX Celtic FC Green NTX — we 4–0; they 7–0. DKSC WHITE NTX — we 2–3; they 4–1. SOLAR BLUE NTX — we 2–1; they 1–2. Fever United FC NTX — we 1–0; they 3–3.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Sting Black NTX score 3.1/game — well above the league's 2.2.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 42% / draw 21% / loss 37%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:30 PM at Dallas Soccer Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sting Black NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX – Sting Black NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.13 PPG
6th▼ down 3 7th▼ down 4 7th▼ down 4
Win
2.38 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.13 PPG
6th▼ down 3 7th▼ down 4 7th▼ down 4
Loss
2.00 PPG
8th▼ down 5 8th▼ down 5 8th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we fall to at least 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
28% top 4
72% below the top 4
6.0 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 3%
  3. 3rd 8%
  4. 4th 16%
  5. 5th 17%
  6. 6th 17%
  7. 7th 13%
  8. 8th 10%
  9. 9th 7%
  10. 10th 4%
  11. 11th 2%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th <1%
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 SOLAR RED NTX 2.63 (+0.34) 1st (2.53) 24 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
2 NTX Celtic FC NTX 2.50 (+0.21) 3rd (2.31) 22 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection

How the results connect

23 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX to Sting Black NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us
3 even
11 favour them
-0.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–0 3–3 2–1 2–1 2–2 3–1 4–0 0–7 2–3 1–4 4–2 4–7 1–0 1–0 1–2 2–5 1–5 0–5 FC Dallas Youth Blu… 3rd Fever United FC NTX 10th SOLAR BLUE NTX 18th Kernow Storm FC NTX… 5th NTX Celtic FC Green… 22nd DKSC WHITE NTX 12th Sting Royal NTX 19th Kernow Storm FC NTX… 20th Sting Black NTX 14th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

1st 11th 22nd Aug 22 Sep 5 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 11 Oct 22 Oct 24

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.15 · 16th hardest of 22

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
01:30 PM
Sting Black NTX
14th · 3-2-3 · GD +7
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
1–1 1.47 2.18 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
11:40 AM
NTX Celtic FC NTX
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +20
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.83 2.03 Upside
Sat Nov 7
05:10 PM
Sting WTX NTX
21st · 0-1-7 · GD -18
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
2–0 2.45 2.07 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
11:40 AM
SOLAR NTX Hedges
13th · 3-1-3 · GD -1
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–1 1.83 2.05 Swing game
Thu Apr 8
06:30 PM
Kernow Storm FC NTX Penna
20th · 0-1-6 · GD -24
Away
Railroad Park
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
3–1 2.44 2.08 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
08:00 AM
DKSC NTX
17th · 2-1-5 · GD -11
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–1 2.10 2.09 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
09:50 AM
SOLAR WHITE NTX
7th · 4-2-1 · GD +10
Home
Railroad Park
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.32 2.03 Upside
Sun Apr 25
09:50 AM
SOLAR NTX Hernandez
16th · 3-0-5 · GD -2
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
1–1 1.58 2.00 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 SOLAR RED NTX 8701 296+23 212.63 WWWWL -0.09 -0.57 98% 1.6
2 NTX Celtic FC NTX 6501 3111+20 152.50 WWWLW -0.36 -0.02 84% 3.0
3 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 7511 147+7 162.29 WLWWW -0.37 -0.15 28% 6.0
4 SOLAR NTX Naizer 8602 308+22 182.25 LWWWW -0.11 -0.59 93% 2.6
5 Kernow Storm FC NTX Bertlesen 9621 3717+20 202.22 WWWDW -0.42 +0.57 38% 5.3
6 FC Dallas Youth NTX 7502 169+7 152.14 WWLLW +0.46 +0.10 27% 6.0
7 SOLAR WHITE NTX 7421 144+10 142.00 WWDDW -1.08 +0.31 16% 7.2
8 Dallas Texans NTX 6402 158+7 122.00 LWWWL -0.41 -0.19 13% 7.2
9 Falls Town FC NTX 10523 1715+2 171.70 WWLDW +0.15 -0.86 1% 8.7
10 Fever United FC NTX 9423 2816+12 141.56 LWLDD -0.75 +0.20 1% 10.1
11 DKSC NTX Quintana 6303 59-4 91.50 WLWLL +0.07 -0.28 0% 13.0
12 DKSC WHITE NTX 8404 1419-5 121.50 WWLWW +0.13 +0.30 0% 13.4
13 SOLAR NTX Hedges 7313 1516-1 101.43 WLWWD +0.56 +0.09 0% 12.2
14 Sting Black NTX 8323 2518+7 111.38 LWLWD -0.73 +0.27 0% 12.2
15 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 8314 1829-11 101.25 LWLLW +0.14 +0.12 0% 15.7
16 SOLAR NTX Hernandez 8305 1315-2 91.13 LWLWL +0.45 +0.25 0% 14.6
17 DKSC NTX 8215 1425-11 70.88 LLWLL -0.27 -0.15 0% 17.2
18 SOLAR BLUE NTX 7205 1216-4 60.86 WLLLL +0.29 -0.04 0% 16.0
19 Sting Royal NTX 6024 514-9 20.33 LDLDL +0.74 -0.16 0% 18.2
20 Kernow Storm FC NTX Penna 7016 832-24 10.14 DLLLL +0.76 +0.23 0% 20.5
21 Sting WTX NTX 8017 422-18 10.13 LLDLL +0.78 +0.08 0% 20.4
22 NTX Celtic FC Green NTX 8008 048-48 00.00 LLLLL +0.12 +0.46 0% 21.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.16 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.