NTX Celtic FC NTX

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Dallas Soccer Park, Field 7 ↗

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–0 (expected goals 4.8 for, 0.7 against · 2.89 expected points)

Common opponents: Nido Dallas NTX Blue — we 2–0; they 0–5. FC Dallas Youth White NTX — we 2–2; they 0–3. Nido Dallas NTX — we 5–0; they 1–5. FRISCO FUSION NTX — we 6–0; they 1–2. Dallas Texans NTX — we 1–2; they 2–4.

• They struggle to score
  Kernow Storm FC NTX Black average 0.6 goals/game (league avg 2.3); blanked in 4 of 7.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Kernow Storm FC NTX Black concede 5.1/game; worst result 0–9 vs Sting Brave NTX.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Expected win — the trap is complacency
  Model gives a 95% chance; likely score 4–0.

  Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

• Confidence is low on their side
  Kernow Storm FC NTX Black have lost 7 straight (form: LLLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• Away game
  Kickoff 11:40 AM at Dallas Soccer Park.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• What a win does
  Kernow Storm FC NTX sit 6th on 2.22 PPG; we are on 2.13.

  A point moves us above Kernow Storm FC NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Kernow Storm FC NTX Black game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (NTX Celtic FC NTX – Kernow Storm FC NTX Black) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–0 win we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.

1. 1st
2. 2nd <1%
3. 3rd 1%
4. 4th 4%
5. 5th 12%
6. 6th 51%
7. 7th 21%
8. 8th 9%
9. 9th 2%
10. 10th <1%
11. 11th
12. 12th
13. 13th
14. 14th
15. 15th
16. 16th
17. 17th
18. 18th
19. 19th
20. 20th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.53 PPG if we win out).