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Kernow Storm FC NTX

ECNL Regional League Girls · North Texas GU17 · 20 teams · Kernow Storm FC (all teams)

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6th
6-2-1 record · 9 played
2.22 points per game
+20 goal diff · 30–10
LDDWWlast 5
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.2
-1.56 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 01:30 PM

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Kernow Storm FC NTX
6th · 2.22 PPG
at
FRISCO FUSION NTX
16th · 0.75 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 8 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–0 (expected goals 4.1 for, 1.0 against · 2.74 expected points)

Season so farKernow Storm FC NTXFRISCO FUSION NTX
Position6th16th
Record (W-D-L)6-2-12-0-6
Points per game2.220.75
Goals for / game3.30.9
Goals against / game1.14.1
Clean sheets41
Held scoreless05
Form (recent first)W W D D LL L L L W
Biggest win8–0 vs Kernow Storm FC NTX Black3–0 at SOLAR NTX
Worst loss2–3 at SOLAR RED NTX0–10 at DKSC WHITE NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.07-2.44
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.56+0.70

Common opponents: SOLAR NTX — we 3–0; they 3–0. SOLAR RED NTX — we 2–3; they 0–2. Kernow Storm FC NTX Black — we 8–0; they 2–1.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    FRISCO FUSION NTX average 0.9 goals/game (league avg 2.3); blanked in 5 of 8.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    FRISCO FUSION NTX concede 4.1/game; worst result 0–10 at DKSC WHITE NTX.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 89% chance; likely score 4–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    FRISCO FUSION NTX have lost 4 straight (form: WLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:30 PM at Dallas Soccer Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FRISCO FUSION NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Kernow Storm FC NTX – FRISCO FUSION NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.30 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Win
2.30 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Draw
2.10 PPG		 7th▼ down 1 6th— holds 7th▼ down 1
Loss
2.00 PPG		 7th▼ down 1 6th— holds 7th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–0 win we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
99% below the top 4
7.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 3%
  6. 6th 20%
  7. 7th 41%
  8. 8th 22%
  9. 9th 9%
  10. 10th 3%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.53 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 DKSC NTX 3.00 (+0.78) 1st (2.75) 25 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 DKSC WHITE NTX 3.00 (+0.78) 2nd (2.55) 25 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 SOLAR BLUE NTX 2.78 (+0.56) 4th (2.44) 22 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
4 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 2.67 (+0.45) 3rd (2.47) 21 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
5 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 2.63 (+0.41) 5th (2.39) 20 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection

How the results connect

39 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Kernow Storm FC NTX to FRISCO FUSION NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

30 favour us
4 even
5 favour them
+3.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–0 0–3 2–3 2–0 8–0 1–2 1–1 3–0 1–1 3–0 3–0 0–8 5–0 4–2 0–7 4–0 0–6 3–0 2–4 3–0 3–0 Kernow Storm FC NTX 6th SOLAR NTX 20th SOLAR RED NTX 11th Kernow Storm FC NTX… 19th FC Dallas Youth Whi… 12th Sting Black NTX 13th Kernow Storm FC NTX… 18th Nido Dallas NTX 15th FC Dallas Youth Blu… 5th SOLAR WHITE NTX 8th FRISCO FUSION NTX 16th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 10th 20th Jan 1 Aug 30 Sep 13 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.86 · 1st hardest of 19

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 1
01:30 PM		 FRISCO FUSION NTX
16th · 2-0-6 · GD -26		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
89%		 4–0 2.74 2.27 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
05:10 PM		 DKSC WHITE NTX
2nd · 7-0-0 · GD +28		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
13%		 1–2 0.55 2.12 Upside
Sun Apr 4
03:20 PM		 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX
4th · 8-0-1 · GD +28		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
19%		 1–2 0.73 2.00 Upside
Sun Apr 11
05:10 PM		 SOLAR BLUE NTX
3rd · 8-1-0 · GD +28		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
31%		 1–2 1.14 1.93 Upside
Sun Apr 18
11:40 AM		 Nido Dallas NTX Blue
10th · 4-1-4 · GD +3		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 1–1 1.52 1.91 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
01:30 PM		 Dallas Texans NTX
9th · 4-0-4 · GD +7		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 2–1 1.50 1.88 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 DKSC NTX 6600 421+41 183.00 WWWWW -1.15 -0.08 99% 1.5
2 DKSC WHITE NTX 7700 302+28 213.00 WWWWW -0.92 +0.48 85% 2.8
3 SOLAR BLUE NTX 9810 368+28 252.78 WWDWW -0.94 +0.63 69% 3.6
4 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 9801 346+28 242.67 WWWLW -0.35 +0.10 76% 3.4
5 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 8701 347+27 212.63 WWLWW -0.88 +0.15 65% 3.9
6 Kernow Storm FC NTX 9621 3010+20 202.22 LDDWW -1.56 +0.86 1% 7.2
7 NTX Celtic FC NTX 8521 236+17 172.13 WWDWL -0.76 -0.22 5% 6.3
8 SOLAR WHITE NTX 8422 199+10 141.75 DWDWL -0.34 -0.23 0% 7.8
9 Dallas Texans NTX 8404 2013+7 121.50 LLWLW +0.41 +0.13 0% 9.4
10 Nido Dallas NTX Blue 9414 1310+3 131.44 LWDWL +1.08 -0.13 0% 9.7
11 SOLAR RED NTX 8305 1018-8 91.13 LWWLL +0.97 -0.43 0% 12.3
12 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 9243 1325-12 101.11 DLDDL +1.05 +0.14 0% 13.6
13 Sting Black NTX 8224 1014-4 81.00 LDDLW +1.53 -0.63 0% 11.8
14 Sting Brave NTX 8215 1721-4 70.88 LLDWL +1.00 -0.29 0% 12.9
15 Nido Dallas NTX 8215 1332-19 70.88 WLLDL +0.69 +0.61 0% 15.8
16 FRISCO FUSION NTX 8206 733-26 60.75 WLLLL +0.70 +0.80 0% 16.8
17 Dallas Cosmos SC NTX 7124 1119-8 50.71 LLLDD +1.13 -0.28 0% 14.0
18 Kernow Storm FC NTX Red 7106 354-51 30.43 LLLLL +2.04 -0.07 0% 18.4
19 Kernow Storm FC NTX Black 7007 436-32 00.00 LLLLL -0.41 +0.25 0% 18.7
20 SOLAR NTX 150015 045-45 00.00 LLLLL +0.00 — 0% 19.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.32 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.