Kernow Storm FC NTX Black
ECNL Regional League Girls · North Texas GU17 · 20 teams · Kernow Storm FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 07:00 PM
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.3 for, 3.5 against · 0.41 expected points)
| Season so far | Kernow Storm FC NTX Black | Dallas Cosmos SC NTX |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 19th | 17th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-7 | 1-2-4 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Goals for / game | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals against / game | 5.1 | 2.7 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 4 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L L | D D L L L |
| Biggest win | — | 3–0 vs SOLAR NTX |
| Worst loss | 0–9 vs Sting Brave NTX | 0–5 vs DKSC WHITE NTX |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -3.47 | -0.66 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.41 | +1.13 |
Common opponents: Nido Dallas NTX — we 1–5; they 2–2. Kernow Storm FC NTX — we 0–8; they 3–5.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–3 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX, 0–5 vs Nido Dallas NTX Blue, 0–9 vs Sting Brave NTX, 0–8 at Kernow Storm FC NTX.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 10%; a draw (12%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Dallas Cosmos SC NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Kernow Storm FC NTX Black – Dallas Cosmos SC NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
19th— holds | 19th— holds | 19th— holds |
| Win 0.38 PPG |
19th— holds | 18th▲ up 1 | 19th— holds |
| Draw 0.13 PPG |
19th— holds | 19th— holds | 19th— holds |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
19th— holds | 19th— holds | 19th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 19th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th
- 14th
- 15th <1%
- 16th
- 17th 2%
- 18th 41%
- 19th 41%
- 20th 15%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 1.60 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DKSC NTX | 3.00 (+3.00) | 1st (2.75) | 45 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | DKSC WHITE NTX | 3.00 (+3.00) | 2nd (2.55) | 45 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | SOLAR BLUE NTX | 2.78 (+2.78) | 4th (2.44) | 42 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | FC Dallas Youth Red NTX | 2.67 (+2.67) | 3rd (2.47) | 41 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 2.63 (+2.63) | 5th (2.39) | 40 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | Kernow Storm FC NTX | 2.22 (+2.22) | 7th (1.88) | 34 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 7 | NTX Celtic FC NTX | 2.13 (+2.13) | 6th (2.03) | 32 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 8 | SOLAR WHITE NTX | 1.75 (+1.75) | 8th (1.77) | 27 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 9 | Dallas Texans NTX | 1.50 (+1.50) | 9th (1.55) | 23 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 10 | Nido Dallas NTX Blue | 1.44 (+1.44) | 10th (1.52) | 22 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 11 | SOLAR RED NTX | 1.13 (+1.13) | 12th (1.21) | 17 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 12 | FC Dallas Youth White NTX | 1.11 (+1.11) | 14th (1.07) | 17 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 13 | Sting Black NTX | 1.00 (+1.00) | 11th (1.26) | 15 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 14 | Sting Brave NTX | 0.88 (+0.88) | 13th (1.12) | 14 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 15 | Nido Dallas NTX | 0.88 (+0.88) | 16th (0.76) | 14 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection |
| 16 | FRISCO FUSION NTX | 0.75 (+0.75) | 17th (0.56) | 12 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection |
| 17 | Dallas Cosmos SC NTX | 0.71 (+0.71) | 15th (0.99) | 11 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 18 | Kernow Storm FC NTX Red | 0.43 (+0.43) | 18th (0.32) | 7 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 5 for their projection |
How the results connect
27 chains · 13 teams
Paths of results that link Kernow Storm FC NTX Black to Dallas Cosmos SC NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.25 · 6th hardest of 19
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 07:00 PM |
Dallas Cosmos SC NTX 17th · 1-2-4 · GD -8 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
1–3 | 0.41 | 0.05 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 11:40 AM |
NTX Celtic FC NTX 7th · 5-2-1 · GD +17 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–4 | 0.08 | 0.05 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 01:30 PM |
SOLAR RED NTX 11th · 3-0-5 · GD -8 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–3 | 0.33 | 0.08 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 09:50 AM |
DKSC NTX 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +41 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–9 | 0.00 | 0.07 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 09:50 AM |
FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 5th · 7-0-1 · GD +27 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–7 | 0.01 | 0.07 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 11:40 AM |
SOLAR WHITE NTX 8th · 4-2-2 · GD +10 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–4 | 0.13 | 0.07 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 08:00 AM |
Sting Black NTX 13th · 2-2-4 · GD -4 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
0–3 | 0.23 | 0.08 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 05:10 PM |
Kernow Storm FC NTX Red 18th · 1-0-6 · GD -51 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 0.18 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | DKSC NTX | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 1 | +41 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.15 | -0.08 | 99% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs FRISCO FUSION NTX · Sun Nov 1 at NTX Celtic FC NTX · Sat Nov 7 at DKSC WHITE NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | DKSC WHITE NTX | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 2 | +28 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.92 | +0.48 | 85% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs DKSC NTX · Sun Nov 8 vs Kernow Storm FC NTX · Sat Apr 10 vs Nido Dallas NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | SOLAR BLUE NTX | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 8 | +28 | 25 | 2.78 | WWDWW | -0.94 | +0.63 | 68% | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Sun Nov 1 at Dallas Texans NTX · Sun Nov 8 vs Nido Dallas NTX See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Dallas Youth Red NTX | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 34 | 6 | +28 | 24 | 2.67 | WWWLW | -0.35 | +0.10 | 76% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Nido Dallas NTX · Sun Nov 1 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Sun Apr 4 vs Kernow Storm FC NTX See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 34 | 7 | +27 | 21 | 2.63 | WWLWW | -0.88 | +0.15 | 65% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Dallas Cosmos SC NTX · Sun Nov 8 vs NTX Celtic FC NTX · Sun Apr 4 vs Kernow Storm FC NTX Black See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Kernow Storm FC NTX | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 10 | +20 | 20 | 2.22 | LDDWW | -1.56 | +0.86 | 1% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at FRISCO FUSION NTX · Sun Nov 8 at DKSC WHITE NTX · Sun Apr 4 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | NTX Celtic FC NTX | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 6 | +17 | 17 | 2.13 | WWDWL | -0.76 | -0.22 | 5% | 6.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Kernow Storm FC NTX Black · Sun Nov 1 vs DKSC NTX · Sun Nov 8 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | SOLAR WHITE NTX | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 14 | 1.75 | DWDWL | -0.34 | -0.23 | 0% | 7.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Sting Brave NTX · Sun Nov 1 at Kernow Storm FC NTX Red · Sun Nov 8 vs Dallas Cosmos SC NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Dallas Texans NTX | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 12 | 1.50 | LLWLW | +0.41 | +0.13 | 0% | 9.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Nido Dallas NTX Blue · Sun Nov 1 vs SOLAR BLUE NTX · Sun Nov 8 at FRISCO FUSION NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Nido Dallas NTX Blue | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 13 | 1.44 | LWDWL | +1.08 | -0.13 | 0% | 9.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Dallas Texans NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs Nido Dallas NTX · Sun Nov 8 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | SOLAR RED NTX | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 9 | 1.13 | LWWLL | +0.97 | -0.43 | 0% | 12.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Kernow Storm FC NTX Black · Sun Nov 8 vs Kernow Storm FC NTX Red · Sun Apr 4 vs Sting Black NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | FC Dallas Youth White NTX | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 10 | 1.11 | DLDDL | +1.05 | +0.14 | 0% | 13.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at SOLAR BLUE NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Dallas Youth Red NTX · Sun Nov 8 vs Nido Dallas NTX Blue See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Sting Black NTX | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 8 | 1.00 | LDDLW | +1.53 | -0.63 | 0% | 11.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Kernow Storm FC NTX Red · Sun Nov 1 vs Dallas Cosmos SC NTX · Sun Nov 8 at Sting Brave NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Sting Brave NTX | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 7 | 0.88 | LLDWL | +1.00 | -0.29 | 0% | 12.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at SOLAR WHITE NTX · Sun Nov 8 vs Sting Black NTX · Sun Apr 4 at Kernow Storm FC NTX Red See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Nido Dallas NTX | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 32 | -19 | 7 | 0.88 | WLLDL | +0.69 | +0.61 | 0% | 15.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Dallas Youth Red NTX · Sun Nov 1 at Nido Dallas NTX Blue · Sun Nov 8 at SOLAR BLUE NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | FRISCO FUSION NTX | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 33 | -26 | 6 | 0.75 | WLLLL | +0.70 | +0.80 | 0% | 16.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at DKSC NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs Kernow Storm FC NTX · Sun Nov 8 vs Dallas Texans NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Dallas Cosmos SC NTX | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 5 | 0.71 | LLLDD | +1.13 | -0.28 | 0% | 14.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Kernow Storm FC NTX Black · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sun Nov 1 at Sting Black NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Kernow Storm FC NTX Red | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 54 | -51 | 3 | 0.43 | LLLLL | +2.04 | -0.07 | 0% | 18.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Sting Black NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs SOLAR WHITE NTX · Sun Nov 8 at SOLAR RED NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | Kernow Storm FC NTX Black | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 36 | -32 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | -0.41 | +0.25 | 0% | 18.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dallas Cosmos SC NTX · Sun Oct 25 vs NTX Celtic FC NTX · Sun Nov 1 at SOLAR RED NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 20 | SOLAR NTX | 15 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 45 | -45 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.00 | — | 0% | 19.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.32 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.