TableChase Clubs

West Coast Soccer -RL

ECNL Regional League Girls · NorCal GU16 · 29 teams · West Coast Soccer (all teams)

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15th
3-1-3 record · 7 played
1.43 points per game
+13 goal diff · 20–7
WDLLWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.9
+0.19 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:15 PM

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West Coast Soccer -RL
15th · 1.43 PPG
at
East Bay United
10th · 1.83 PPG

Emeryville Center for Community Life, field 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.2 for, 1.5 against · 1.85 expected points)

Season so farWest Coast Soccer -RLEast Bay United
Position15th10th
Record (W-D-L)3-1-33-2-1
Points per game1.431.83
Goals for / game2.92.0
Goals against / game1.01.7
Clean sheets22
Held scoreless30
Form (recent first)W L L D WW L D W D
Biggest win13–1 vs Santa Clara Sporting3–0 at North Coast FC BLUE
Worst loss0–1 vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club1–5 at Walnut Creek Surf
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.36+0.30
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.19+0.32

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–1 vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club, 0–1 at San Francisco Elite Academy, 0–1 vs Folsom Lake Surf.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 55% / draw 20% / loss 25%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 02:15 PM at Emeryville Center for Community Life.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    East County Revolution FC sit 14th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.43.

    A point moves us above East County Revolution FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the East Bay United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (West Coast Soccer -RL – East Bay United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 12 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.63 PPG
13th▲ up 2 12th▲ up 3 13th▲ up 2
Win
1.63 PPG
13th▲ up 2 12th▲ up 3 13th▲ up 2
Draw
1.38 PPG
15th— holds 16th▼ down 1 17th▼ down 2
Loss
1.25 PPG
15th— holds 16th▼ down 1 17th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 10th if every rival drops points, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
10.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 2%
  7. 7th 5%
  8. 8th 8%
  9. 9th 15%
  10. 10th 17%
  11. 11th 16%
  12. 12th 13%
  13. 13th 10%
  14. 14th 6%
  15. 15th 5%
  16. 16th 2%
  17. 17th 1%
  18. 18th <1%
  19. 19th
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd
  23. 23rd
  24. 24th
  25. 25th
  26. 26th
  27. 27th
  28. 28th
  29. 29th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.21 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 South Valley Chivas Navy 3.00 (+1.57) 4th (2.56) 32 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 San Francisco Elite Academy 3.00 (+1.57) 3rd (2.62) 32 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 3.00 (+1.57) 1st (2.65) 32 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Walnut Creek Surf 2.71 (+1.28) 2nd (2.63) 28 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Cal Magic 2.57 (+1.14) 5th (2.44) 26 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Santa Cruz United FC 2.14 (+0.71) 8th (2.09) 20 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
7 Folsom Lake Surf 2.14 (+0.71) 7th (2.10) 20 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
8 Burlingame SC 2.14 (+0.71) 6th (2.16) 20 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
9 Association FC 2.14 (+0.71) 9th (1.77) 20 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
10 East Bay United 1.83 (+0.40) 10th (1.75) 16 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
11 North Coast FC BLUE 1.80 (+0.37) 12th (1.61) 16 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
12 South Tahoe FC 1.67 (+0.24) 13th (1.55) 14 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
13 SF Aftershocks FC 1.67 (+0.24) 14th (1.55) 14 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
14 East County Revolution FC 1.50 (+0.07) 15th (1.53) A point next game

How the results connect

8 chains · 13 teams

Paths of results that link West Coast Soccer -RL to East Bay United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
3 favour them
+0.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–1 2–0 1–1 3–0 1–3 2–4 1–0 2–0 0–1 0–1 5–1 2–2 1–4 0–3 5–0 3–3 1–3 13–1 0–5 West Coast Soccer -… 15th Folsom Lake Surf 7th Livermore Fusion SC 21st Santa Cruz United FC 6th San Francisco Elite… 2nd Roseville SC -RL 16th Santa Clara Sporting 25th South Tahoe FC 12th San Ramon FC -RL 17th East County Revolut… 14th South Valley United… 18th North Coast FC BLUE 11th East Bay United 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 15th 29th Aug 15 Aug 23 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.09 · 17th hardest of 27

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
02:15 PM
East Bay United
10th · 3-2-1 · GD +2
Away far trip
Emeryville Center for Community Life
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
2–1 1.85 1.48 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
02:00 PM
North Coast FC BLUE
11th · 3-0-2 · GD +2
Away far trip
Petaluma Community Sports Fields
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–1 1.89 1.53 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM
East County Revolution FC
14th · 3-0-3 · GD +4
Home
Cayetano Park
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
1–1 1.99 1.57 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 PM
San Ramon FC -RL
17th · 2-1-3 · GD -6
Away far trip
Rancho San Ramon Community Park
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
3–1 2.33 1.64 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
TBD
Elk Grove Soccer
20th · 1-0-4 · GD -15
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
3–0 2.75 1.73 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
03:00 PM
South Valley Chivas Navy
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +24
Away far trip
Riverway Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.92 1.67 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
SF United FC
19th · 1-0-4 · GD -12
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
3–0 2.73 1.75 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 South Valley Chivas Navy 7700 306+24 213.00 WWWWW -0.34 +0.34 78% 3.3
2 San Francisco Elite Academy 5500 262+24 153.00 WWWWW -0.78 +0.01 82% 2.9
3 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 5500 173+14 153.00 WWWWW +0.22 -0.65 85% 2.8
4 Walnut Creek Surf 7610 351+34 192.71 WWWDW -1.05 +0.26 86% 2.7
5 Cal Magic 7601 427+35 182.57 WWLWW -1.39 -0.17 53% 4.2
6 Santa Cruz United FC 7502 255+20 152.14 WLWWW +0.47 +0.38 5% 7.3
7 Folsom Lake Surf 7502 136+7 152.14 LWLWW +0.41 -0.62 4% 7.5
8 Burlingame SC 7502 2216+6 152.14 WWWWL +0.46 -0.89 7% 6.8
9 Association FC 7502 2118+3 152.14 LWWLW -0.69 -0.08 0% 10.8
10 East Bay United 6321 1210+2 111.83 DWDLW +0.32 -0.34 0% 10.8
11 North Coast FC BLUE 5302 108+2 91.80 WLWLW -0.50 -0.07 0% 12.4
12 South Tahoe FC 6312 98+1 101.67 DLWWW +0.10 +0.09 0% 13.2
13 SF Aftershocks FC 6312 1010+0 101.67 WWLDW +0.38 +0.12 0% 13.1
14 East County Revolution FC 6303 106+4 91.50 WWLWL -0.56 +0.00 0% 13.4
15 West Coast Soccer -RL 7313 207+13 101.43 WDLLW +0.19 -0.09 0% 10.9
16 Roseville SC -RL 6213 1415-1 71.17 LLDWL +0.26 -0.13 0% 14.9
17 San Ramon FC -RL 6213 1117-6 71.17 DWLLW -0.32 +0.13 0% 16.9
18 South Valley United Soccer Club 6114 718-11 40.67 LDLWL +0.32 -0.11 0% 19.5
19 SF United FC 5104 416-12 30.60 LWLLL -0.08 +0.44 0% 21.6
20 Elk Grove Soccer 5104 419-15 30.60 LLLWL +0.83 +0.72 0% 22.3
21 Livermore Fusion SC 7115 827-19 40.57 LLWDL -0.27 -0.53 0% 21.2
22 Solano Surf 6105 521-16 30.50 LLLWL +0.49 +0.65 0% 23.0
23 Eastshore Alliance FC 7106 519-14 30.43 LLLLW -0.36 +0.16 0% 22.5
24 Alameda Soccer Club Islanders 7034 530-25 30.43 LLLDL +0.14 +0.30 0% 23.7
25 Santa Clara Sporting 6015 333-30 10.17 LLLLL +0.17 -0.02 0% 26.2
26 Stanford Strikers 0000 00+0 00.00 — — ——
27 Valley Surf 0000 00+0 00.00 — — ——
28 Reno APEX Soccer Club 6006 819-11 00.00 LLLLL +1.10 -0.65 0% 19.4
29 Napa United 6006 332-29 00.00 LLLLL +0.90 -0.53 0% 25.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.19 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.