Burlingame SC

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Hornet Soccer Field, Hornet Grass Field ↗ · grass far trip

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.6 for, 1.2 against · 2.73 expected points)

• They struggle to score
  Alameda Soccer Club Islanders average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 4 of 7.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Alameda Soccer Club Islanders concede 4.3/game; worst result 0–10 at San Francisco Elite Academy.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–8 vs Santa Cruz United FC.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Expected win — the trap is complacency
  Model gives a 89% chance; likely score 4–1.

  Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

• Grass field
  Venue listed as "Hornet Grass Field" at Hornet Soccer Field.

  If the team trains on turf: the ball will be slower and bounce less true. Weight passes harder, favour early crosses in the final third, and bring FG/SG cleats. Warm up on the field, not the track.

• Away game
  Kickoff 03:00 PM at Hornet Soccer Field.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• What a win does
  Folsom Lake Surf sit 7th on 2.14 PPG; we are on 2.14.

  A point moves us above Folsom Lake Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Alameda Soccer Club Islanders game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Burlingame SC – Alameda Soccer Club Islanders) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 12 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–1 win we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

1. 1st <1%
2. 2nd <1%
3. 3rd 2%
4. 4th 5%
5. 5th 12%
6. 6th 27%
7. 7th 25%
8. 8th 16%
9. 9th 8%
10. 10th 3%
11. 11th 2%
12. 12th 1%
13. 13th <1%
14. 14th <1%
15. 15th <1%
16. 16th
17. 17th
18. 18th
19. 19th
20. 20th
21. 21st
22. 22nd
23. 23rd
24. 24th
25. 25th
26. 26th
27. 27th
28. 28th
29. 29th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.60 PPG if we win out).