TableChase Clubs

North Coast FC BLUE

ECNL Regional League Girls · NorCal GU16 · 29 teams · North Coast Futbol Club (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 17 minutes ago.
Add schedule to calendar
11th
3-0-2 record · 5 played
1.80 points per game
+2 goal diff · 10–8
WLWLWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.5
-0.50 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 08:45 AM

Open the match preview →

North Coast FC BLUE
11th · 1.80 PPG
at
SF United FC
19th · 0.60 PPG

Crocker Amazon soccer fields, Field 3 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.4 for, 1.2 against · 2.11 expected points)

Season so farNorth Coast FC BLUESF United FC
Position11th19th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-21-0-4
Points per game1.800.60
Goals for / game2.00.8
Goals against / game1.63.2
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless13
Form (recent first)W L W L WL L L W L
Biggest win4–1 at Livermore Fusion SC2–1 vs Eastshore Alliance FC
Worst loss0–3 vs East Bay United0–4 at Walnut Creek Surf
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.17-1.46
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.50-0.08

Common opponents: Roseville SC -RL — we 3–1; they 2–5.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    SF United FC average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 3 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs East Bay United.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 64% / draw 18% / loss 17%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    SF United FC have lost 3 straight (form: LWLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 08:45 AM at Crocker Amazon soccer fields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 08:45 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    East Bay United sit 10th on 1.83 PPG; we are on 1.80.

    A point moves us above East Bay United on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SF United FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (North Coast FC BLUE – SF United FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 12 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.00 PPG		 10th▲ up 1 9th▲ up 2 11th— holds
Win
2.00 PPG		 10th▲ up 1 9th▲ up 2 11th— holds
Draw
1.67 PPG		 11th— holds 11th— holds 13th▼ down 2
Loss
1.50 PPG		 14th▼ down 3 14th▼ down 3 15th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
12.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th 4%
  9. 9th 7%
  10. 10th 9%
  11. 11th 13%
  12. 12th 14%
  13. 13th 15%
  14. 14th 14%
  15. 15th 11%
  16. 16th 8%
  17. 17th 3%
  18. 18th 1%
  19. 19th
  20. 20th <1%
  21. 21st <1%
  22. 22nd
  23. 23rd
  24. 24th
  25. 25th
  26. 26th
  27. 27th
  28. 28th
  29. 29th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.57 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 South Valley Chivas Navy 3.00 (+1.20) 4th (2.56) 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
2 San Francisco Elite Academy 3.00 (+1.20) 3rd (2.62) 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 3.00 (+1.20) 1st (2.65) 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Walnut Creek Surf 2.71 (+0.91) 2nd (2.63) 29 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Cal Magic 2.57 (+0.77) 5th (2.44) 27 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
6 Santa Cruz United FC 2.14 (+0.34) 8th (2.09) 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
7 Folsom Lake Surf 2.14 (+0.34) 7th (2.10) 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
8 Burlingame SC 2.14 (+0.34) 6th (2.16) 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
9 Association FC 2.14 (+0.34) 9th (1.77) 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
10 East Bay United 1.83 (+0.03) 10th (1.75) A point next game

How the results connect

6 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link North Coast FC BLUE to SF United FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
2 favour them
+2.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–1 5–2 2–1 1–3 3–0 0–3 1–5 4–0 0–10 4–0 1–2 1–2 8–0 3–0 North Coast FC BLUE 11th Roseville SC -RL 16th Solano Surf 22nd East Bay United 10th Burlingame SC 8th Association FC 9th Walnut Creek Surf 4th Eastshore Alliance … 23rd Elk Grove Soccer 20th SF United FC 19th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 15th 29th Aug 15 Aug 23 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.07 · 15th hardest of 27

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
08:45 AM		 SF United FC
19th · 1-0-4 · GD -12		 Away far trip
Crocker Amazon soccer fields		 ●●○○○ Lean win
64%		 2–1 2.11 1.85 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
02:00 PM		 West Coast Soccer -RL
15th · 3-1-3 · GD +13		 Home
Petaluma Community Sports Fields		 ●●●●● Very tough
23%		 1–2 0.91 1.72 Upside
Sun Nov 8
02:30 PM		 Eastshore Alliance FC
23rd · 1-0-6 · GD -14		 Away far trip
El Cerrito High School · turf?		 ●●○○○ Lean win
64%		 2–1 2.12 1.77 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
12:00 PM		 Folsom Lake Surf
7th · 5-0-2 · GD +7		 Away far trip
Folsom Lake College · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–1 0.90 1.67 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 Los Gatos United Soccer Club
3rd · 5-0-0 · GD +14		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
12%		 1–2 0.53 1.56 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 South Valley United Soccer Club
18th · 1-1-4 · GD -11		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
67%		 2–1 2.19 1.61 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
10:00 AM		 San Ramon FC -RL
17th · 2-1-3 · GD -6		 Away far trip
San Ramon Sports Park - Tiffany Roberts		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
50%		 2–1 1.70 1.62 Swing game
Sat May 1
10:00 AM		 Alameda Soccer Club Islanders
24th · 0-3-4 · GD -25		 Home
Petaluma Community Sports Fields		 ●○○○○ Favorable
85%		 3–0 2.63 1.70 Bank it
Sun May 2
TBD		 San Francisco Elite Academy
2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +24		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
12%		 1–3 0.49 1.61 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 South Valley Chivas Navy 7700 306+24 213.00 WWWWW -0.34 +0.34 79% 3.2
2 San Francisco Elite Academy 5500 262+24 153.00 WWWWW -0.78 +0.01 79% 3.0
3 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 5500 173+14 153.00 WWWWW +0.22 -0.65 84% 2.8
4 Walnut Creek Surf 7610 351+34 192.71 WWWDW -1.05 +0.26 87% 2.8
5 Cal Magic 7601 427+35 182.57 WWLWW -1.39 -0.17 54% 4.2
6 Santa Cruz United FC 7502 255+20 152.14 WLWWW +0.47 +0.38 4% 7.4
7 Folsom Lake Surf 7502 136+7 152.14 LWLWW +0.41 -0.62 4% 7.5
8 Burlingame SC 7502 2216+6 152.14 WWWWL +0.46 -0.89 8% 6.8
9 Association FC 7502 2118+3 152.14 LWWLW -0.69 -0.08 0% 10.7
10 East Bay United 6321 1210+2 111.83 DWDLW +0.32 -0.34 0% 10.8
11 North Coast FC BLUE 5302 108+2 91.80 WLWLW -0.50 -0.07 0% 12.5
12 South Tahoe FC 6312 98+1 101.67 DLWWW +0.10 +0.09 0% 13.3
13 SF Aftershocks FC 6312 1010+0 101.67 WWLDW +0.38 +0.12 0% 13.0
14 East County Revolution FC 6303 106+4 91.50 WWLWL -0.56 +0.00 0% 13.3
15 West Coast Soccer -RL 7313 207+13 101.43 WDLLW +0.19 -0.09 0% 10.9
16 Roseville SC -RL 6213 1415-1 71.17 LLDWL +0.26 -0.13 0% 14.8
17 San Ramon FC -RL 6213 1117-6 71.17 DWLLW -0.32 +0.13 0% 17.0
18 South Valley United Soccer Club 6114 718-11 40.67 LDLWL +0.32 -0.11 0% 19.5
19 SF United FC 5104 416-12 30.60 LWLLL -0.08 +0.44 0% 21.4
20 Elk Grove Soccer 5104 419-15 30.60 LLLWL +0.83 +0.72 0% 22.3
21 Livermore Fusion SC 7115 827-19 40.57 LLWDL -0.27 -0.53 0% 21.2
22 Solano Surf 6105 521-16 30.50 LLLWL +0.49 +0.65 0% 23.1
23 Eastshore Alliance FC 7106 519-14 30.43 LLLLW -0.36 +0.16 0% 22.5
24 Alameda Soccer Club Islanders 7034 530-25 30.43 LLLDL +0.14 +0.30 0% 23.6
25 Santa Clara Sporting 6015 333-30 10.17 LLLLL +0.17 -0.02 0% 26.2
26 Stanford Strikers 0000 00+0 00.00 — — ——
27 Valley Surf 0000 00+0 00.00 — — ——
28 Reno APEX Soccer Club 6006 819-11 00.00 LLLLL +1.10 -0.65 0% 19.4
29 Napa United 6006 332-29 00.00 LLLLL +0.90 -0.53 0% 25.1

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.19 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.