Walnut Creek Surf

ECNL Regional League Girls · NorCal GU16 · 29 teams · Walnut Creek Surf Soccer Club (all teams)

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4th

6-1-0 record · 7 played

2.71 points per game

+34 goal diff · 35–1

WWWDWlast 5

87% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.7

-1.05 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:00 PM

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Walnut Creek Surf
4th · 2.71 PPG

Association FC
9th · 2.14 PPG

Witter Sports Complex, Stadium ↗ · turf? far trip

88%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.3 for, 1.1 against · 2.72 expected points)

Season so far	Walnut Creek Surf	Association FC
Position	4th	9th
Record (W-D-L)	6-1-0	5-0-2
Points per game	2.71	2.14
Goals for / game	5.0	3.0
Goals against / game	0.1	2.6
Clean sheets	6	2
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	W D W W W	W L W W L
Biggest win	10–0 at Solano Surf	6–0 vs Alameda Soccer Club Islanders
Worst loss	—	2–9 at South Valley Chivas Navy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+3.01	+0.02
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-1.05	-0.69

Common opponents: SF United FC — we 4–0; they 3–0. Solano Surf — we 10–0; they 3–1. Alameda Soccer Club Islanders — we 7–0; they 6–0.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs SF Aftershocks FC.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 88% chance; likely score 4–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Witter Sports Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Association FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Walnut Creek Surf – Association FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 12 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.75 PPG	4th— holds	3rd▲ up 1	4th— holds
Win 2.75 PPG	4th— holds	3rd▲ up 1	4th— holds
Draw 2.50 PPG	5th▼ down 1	4th— holds	5th▼ down 1
Loss 2.38 PPG	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

23% finish 1st

87% top 4

13% below the top 4

2.7 average finish

1st 23%
2nd 28%
3rd 22%
4th 14%
5th 8%
6th 3%
7th 1%
8th <1%
9th <1%
10th
11th
12th
13th
14th
15th
16th
17th
18th
19th
20th
21st
22nd
23rd
24th
25th
26th
27th
28th
29th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.85 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	South Valley Chivas Navy	3.00 (+0.29)	4th (2.56)	20 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
2	San Francisco Elite Academy	3.00 (+0.29)	3rd (2.62)	20 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
3	Los Gatos United Soccer Club	3.00 (+0.29)	1st (2.65)	20 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection

How the results connect

10 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Walnut Creek Surf to Association FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us

1 even

1 favour them

+3.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.26 · 7th hardest of 27

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM	Association FC 9th · 5-0-2 · GD +3	Away far trip Witter Sports Complex · turf?	●○○○○ Favorable	88%	4–1	2.72	2.71	Bank it
Sun Nov 1 10:00 AM	San Ramon FC -RL 17th · 2-1-3 · GD -6	Away San Ramon Sports Park - Tiffany Roberts	●○○○○ Favorable	92%	4–0	2.81	2.73	Bank it
Sun Apr 4 TBD	Cal Magic 5th · 6-0-1 · GD +35	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	2–1	2.09	2.66	Swing game
Sat Apr 10 TBD	Santa Cruz United FC 6th · 5-0-2 · GD +20	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	60%	2–1	1.99	2.60	Swing game
Sun Apr 18 11:00 AM	Napa United 29th · 0-0-6 · GD -29	Away Silverado Middle School	●○○○○ Favorable	99%	6–0	2.98	2.63	Bank it
Sat Apr 24 TBD	South Tahoe FC 12th · 3-1-2 · GD +1	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	85%	3–0	2.64	2.63	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

South Valley Chivas Navy

+24

3.00

WWWWW

-0.34

+0.34

76%

3.3

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Burlingame SC (8th)	4–2
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Napa United (29th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (7th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	South Tahoe FC (12th)	3–1
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Association FC (9th)	9–2
W	Sun Aug 16	at	SF Aftershocks FC (13th)	5–1
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	Elk Grove Soccer (20th)	3–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Roseville SC -RL · Sun Nov 1 vs Alameda Soccer Club Islanders · Sun Mar 14 at East County Revolution FC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Roseville SC -RL (16th)	4–1	84%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Alameda Soccer Club Islanders (24th)	6–0	98%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	East County Revolution FC (14th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Solano Surf (22nd)	4–0	92%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (2nd)	2–2	39%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	West Coast Soccer -RL (15th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Santa Cruz United FC (6th)	2–1	43%
·	Sun May 2	at	East Bay United (10th)	2–1	68%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Francisco Elite Academy

+24

3.00

WWWWW

-0.78

+0.01

81%

2.9

W	Sun Sep 27	vs	West Coast Soccer -RL (15th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Alameda Soccer Club Islanders (24th)	10–0
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (7th)	2–0
W	Sun Aug 16	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (18th)	5–1
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	Napa United (29th)	8–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Cal Magic · Sun Oct 25 vs Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Nov 1 at Association FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Cal Magic (5th)	2–2	40%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Elk Grove Soccer (20th)	5–0	97%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Association FC (9th)	4–1	82%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	SF Aftershocks FC (13th)	2–1	74%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	SF United FC (19th)	5–0	96%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Eastshore Alliance FC (23rd)	4–0	93%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	South Valley Chivas Navy (1st)	2–2	41%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Reno APEX Soccer Club (28th)	5–0	94%
·	Sun May 2	at	North Coast FC BLUE (11th)	3–1	74%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Los Gatos United Soccer Club

+14

3.00

WWWWW

+0.22

-0.65

85%

2.7

W	Sun Sep 27	vs	SF Aftershocks FC (13th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Santa Cruz United FC (6th)	3–0
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Reno APEX Soccer Club (28th)	4–3
W	Sun Aug 16	at	West Coast Soccer -RL (15th)	1–0
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (21st)	5–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Solano Surf · Sun Nov 1 at SF United FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Burlingame SC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Solano Surf (22nd)	4–0	93%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	SF United FC (19th)	3–0	87%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Burlingame SC (8th)	3–1	68%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	South Tahoe FC (12th)	2–0	69%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	East County Revolution FC (14th)	1–1	57%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	North Coast FC BLUE (11th)	2–1	72%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Roseville SC -RL (16th)	3–1	70%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (18th)	3–0	89%
·	Sun May 2	at	Santa Clara Sporting (25th)	5–0	97%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Walnut Creek Surf

+34

2.71

WWWDW

-1.05

+0.26

87%

2.7

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Alameda Soccer Club Islanders (24th)	7–0
D	Sun Oct 11	vs	SF Aftershocks FC (13th)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	East Bay United (10th)	5–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Elk Grove Soccer (20th)	6–0
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Solano Surf (22nd)	10–0
W	Sun Aug 16	at	Reno APEX Soccer Club (28th)	3–0
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	SF United FC (19th)	4–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Association FC · Sun Nov 1 at San Ramon FC -RL · Sun Apr 4 vs Cal Magic See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Association FC (9th)	4–1	88%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	San Ramon FC -RL (17th)	4–0	92%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Cal Magic (5th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Santa Cruz United FC (6th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Napa United (29th)	6–0	99%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	South Tahoe FC (12th)	3–0	85%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cal Magic

+35

2.57

WWLWW

-1.39

-0.17

55%

4.2

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Reno APEX Soccer Club (28th)	6–2
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Eastshore Alliance FC (23rd)	4–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Burlingame SC (8th)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Napa United (29th)	10–0
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Santa Clara Sporting (25th)	6–0
W	Sun Aug 16	at	Livermore Fusion SC (21st)	8–0
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	San Ramon FC -RL (17th)	6–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 8 vs Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Mar 14 at SF Aftershocks FC See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (2nd)	2–2	41%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Elk Grove Soccer (20th)	6–0	97%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	SF Aftershocks FC (13th)	3–1	73%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Solano Surf (22nd)	5–1	95%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Alameda Soccer Club Islanders (24th)	7–0	99%
·	Sun May 2	vs	SF United FC (19th)	5–0	97%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Santa Cruz United FC

+20

2.14

WLWWW

+0.47

+0.38

7.4

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	East County Revolution FC (14th)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Association FC (9th)	6–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	San Ramon FC -RL (17th)	5–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (3rd)	0–3
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Roseville SC -RL (16th)	4–1
W	Sun Aug 16	at	Burlingame SC (8th)	8–0
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	West Coast Soccer -RL (15th)	0–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at South Tahoe FC · Sun Nov 8 at South Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Mar 14 at Folsom Lake Surf See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	South Tahoe FC (12th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (18th)	3–0	87%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Folsom Lake Surf (7th)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Reno APEX Soccer Club (28th)	4–0	91%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	South Valley Chivas Navy (1st)	1–2	36%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Solano Surf (22nd)	4–0	94%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Folsom Lake Surf

2.14

LWLWW

+0.41

-0.62

7.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Roseville SC -RL (16th)	3–0
W	Sun Oct 11	at	West Coast Soccer -RL (15th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	South Valley Chivas Navy (1st)	0–3
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Reno APEX Soccer Club (28th)	2–1
L	Sun Aug 23	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (2nd)	0–2
W	Sun Aug 16	at	Santa Clara Sporting (25th)	5–0
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	South Tahoe FC (12th)	2–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at South Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Nov 8 vs Livermore Fusion SC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (18th)	2–0	68%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Elk Grove Soccer (20th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (21st)	3–0	85%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Santa Cruz United FC (6th)	1–1	25%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	North Coast FC BLUE (11th)	1–1	54%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	East County Revolution FC (14th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Solano Surf (22nd)	2–0	74%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Eastshore Alliance FC (23rd)	2–0	79%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Burlingame SC

2.14

WWWWL

+0.46

-0.89

6.8

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	South Valley Chivas Navy (1st)	2–4
W	Sun Oct 11	at	North Coast FC BLUE (11th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (18th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Elk Grove Soccer (20th)	8–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Cal Magic (5th)	3–2
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	Santa Cruz United FC (6th)	0–8
W	Sat Aug 15	at	Solano Surf (22nd)	3–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Alameda Soccer Club Islanders · Sun Nov 1 at Santa Clara Sporting · Sun Nov 8 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Alameda Soccer Club Islanders (24th)	4–1	89%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Santa Clara Sporting (25th)	5–1	94%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (3rd)	1–3	16%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Eastshore Alliance FC (23rd)	3–1	84%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Association FC (9th)	3–2	63%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	SF United FC (19th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	East Bay United (10th)	2–2	54%
·	Sun May 2	vs	San Ramon FC -RL (17th)	3–1	74%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Association FC

2.14

LWWLW

-0.69

-0.08

10.8

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	SF United FC (19th)	3–0
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Santa Cruz United FC (6th)	0–6
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Alameda Soccer Club Islanders (24th)	6–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Solano Surf (22nd)	3–1
L	Sun Aug 23	at	South Valley Chivas Navy (1st)	2–9
W	Sun Aug 16	at	Napa United (29th)	5–1
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (18th)	2–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Clara Sporting See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	1–4	5%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (2nd)	1–4	8%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Santa Clara Sporting (25th)	5–1	93%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Burlingame SC (8th)	2–3	23%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Eastshore Alliance FC (23rd)	2–1	66%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	San Ramon FC -RL (17th)	2–2	50%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Livermore Fusion SC (21st)	3–1	72%
·	Sun May 2	at	SF Aftershocks FC (13th)	1–2	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

East Bay United

1.83

DWDLW

+0.32

-0.34

10.8

W	Sun Oct 11	vs	San Ramon FC -RL (17th)	4–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	1–5
D	Sun Sep 20	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (18th)	2–2
W	Sun Aug 23	at	North Coast FC BLUE (11th)	3–0
D	Sun Aug 16	at	South Tahoe FC (12th)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	East County Revolution FC (14th)	1–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs West Coast Soccer -RL · Sun Nov 1 vs SF Aftershocks FC · Sun Nov 8 at Reno APEX Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	West Coast Soccer -RL (15th)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	SF Aftershocks FC (13th)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Reno APEX Soccer Club (28th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Elk Grove Soccer (20th)	2–1	68%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Napa United (29th)	4–0	90%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Roseville SC -RL (16th)	2–2	51%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Alameda Soccer Club Islanders (24th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Burlingame SC (8th)	2–2	28%
·	Sun May 2	vs	South Valley Chivas Navy (1st)	1–2	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

North Coast FC BLUE

1.80

WLWLW

-0.50

-0.07

12.5

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Solano Surf (22nd)	2–1
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Burlingame SC (8th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Livermore Fusion SC (21st)	4–1
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	East Bay United (10th)	0–3
W	Sun Aug 16	at	Roseville SC -RL (16th)	3–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at SF United FC · Sun Nov 1 vs West Coast Soccer -RL · Sun Nov 8 at Eastshore Alliance FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	SF United FC (19th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	West Coast Soccer -RL (15th)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Eastshore Alliance FC (23rd)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Folsom Lake Surf (7th)	1–1	22%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (3rd)	1–2	12%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (18th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	San Ramon FC -RL (17th)	2–1	50%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Alameda Soccer Club Islanders (24th)	3–0	85%
·	Sun May 2	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (2nd)	1–3	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

South Tahoe FC

1.67

DLWWW

+0.10

+0.09

13.2

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Elk Grove Soccer (20th)	2–1
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Reno APEX Soccer Club (28th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	East County Revolution FC (14th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	South Valley Chivas Navy (1st)	1–3
D	Sun Aug 16	vs	East Bay United (10th)	1–1
L	Sat Aug 15	at	Folsom Lake Surf (7th)	0–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Santa Cruz United FC · Sun Nov 8 at Roseville SC -RL · Sun Mar 14 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Santa Cruz United FC (6th)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Roseville SC -RL (16th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (3rd)	0–2	14%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (18th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	SF Aftershocks FC (13th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Santa Clara Sporting (25th)	3–0	84%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	0–3	5%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (21st)	3–1	77%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SF Aftershocks FC

1.67

WWLDW

+0.38

+0.12

13.1

W	Sun Oct 18	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (18th)	4–1
D	Sun Oct 11	at	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	0–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (3rd)	0–4
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Eastshore Alliance FC (23rd)	3–0
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Alameda Soccer Club Islanders (24th)	2–0
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	South Valley Chivas Navy (1st)	1–5

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sun Nov 1 at East Bay United · Sun Nov 8 vs San Francisco Elite Academy See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (21st)	3–1	77%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	East Bay United (10th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (2nd)	1–2	12%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Cal Magic (5th)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	SF United FC (19th)	2–0	71%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	South Tahoe FC (12th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Solano Surf (22nd)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Roseville SC -RL (16th)	1–2	37%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Association FC (9th)	2–1	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

East County Revolution FC

1.50

WWLWL

-0.56

+0.00

13.2

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Santa Cruz United FC (6th)	0–2
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Santa Clara Sporting (25th)	5–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	South Tahoe FC (12th)	0–3
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Eastshore Alliance FC (23rd)	3–0
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	Solano Surf (22nd)	2–0
L	Sat Aug 15	at	East Bay United (10th)	0–1

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs South Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at West Coast Soccer -RL · Sun Mar 14 vs South Valley Chivas Navy See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (18th)	2–0	67%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	West Coast Soccer -RL (15th)	1–1	19%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	South Valley Chivas Navy (1st)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (3rd)	1–1	21%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	San Ramon FC -RL (17th)	1–1	52%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (7th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Napa United (29th)	3–0	87%
·	Sun May 2	at	Elk Grove Soccer (20th)	2–1	65%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

West Coast Soccer -RL

+13

1.43

WDLLW

+0.19

-0.09

10.9

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Santa Clara Sporting (25th)	13–1
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (7th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (2nd)	0–1
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Roseville SC -RL (16th)	3–3
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Livermore Fusion SC (21st)	3–0
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (3rd)	0–1
W	Sat Aug 15	at	Santa Cruz United FC (6th)	1–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at East Bay United · Sun Nov 1 at North Coast FC BLUE · Sun Nov 8 vs East County Revolution FC See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	East Bay United (10th)	2–1	55%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	North Coast FC BLUE (11th)	2–1	56%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	East County Revolution FC (14th)	1–1	59%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	San Ramon FC -RL (17th)	3–1	73%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Elk Grove Soccer (20th)	3–0	89%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	South Valley Chivas Navy (1st)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	SF United FC (19th)	3–0	88%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Roseville SC -RL

-1

1.17

LLDWL

+0.26

-0.13

14.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Folsom Lake Surf (7th)	0–3
W	Sun Sep 27	at	SF United FC (19th)	5–2
D	Sun Sep 20	at	West Coast Soccer -RL (15th)	3–3
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Santa Cruz United FC (6th)	1–4
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	North Coast FC BLUE (11th)	1–3
W	Sat Aug 15	at	Eastshore Alliance FC (23rd)	4–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at South Valley Chivas Navy · Sun Nov 1 vs Solano Surf · Sun Nov 8 vs South Tahoe FC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	South Valley Chivas Navy (1st)	1–4	7%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Solano Surf (22nd)	3–1	76%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	South Tahoe FC (12th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Santa Clara Sporting (25th)	4–1	88%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	East Bay United (10th)	2–2	30%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (3rd)	1–3	15%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	SF Aftershocks FC (13th)	2–1	43%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Reno APEX Soccer Club (28th)	3–1	65%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Ramon FC -RL

-6

1.17

DWLLW

-0.32

+0.13

17.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Livermore Fusion SC (21st)	3–1
L	Sun Oct 11	at	East Bay United (10th)	2–4
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Santa Cruz United FC (6th)	0–5
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Napa United (29th)	4–0
D	Sun Aug 16	vs	Alameda Soccer Club Islanders (24th)	1–1
L	Sat Aug 15	at	Cal Magic (5th)	1–6

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Eastshore Alliance FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Nov 7 at Santa Clara Sporting See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Eastshore Alliance FC (23rd)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	0–4	3%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Santa Clara Sporting (25th)	3–1	77%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	West Coast Soccer -RL (15th)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	East County Revolution FC (14th)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Association FC (9th)	2–2	33%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	North Coast FC BLUE (11th)	1–2	30%
·	Sun May 2	at	Burlingame SC (8th)	1–3	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

South Valley United Soccer Club

-11

0.67

LDLWL

+0.32

-0.11

19.6

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	SF Aftershocks FC (13th)	1–4
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Eastshore Alliance FC (23rd)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Burlingame SC (8th)	0–4
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	East Bay United (10th)	2–2
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (2nd)	1–5
L	Sat Aug 15	at	Association FC (9th)	1–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 1 at East County Revolution FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Cruz United FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (7th)	0–2	14%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	East County Revolution FC (14th)	0–2	15%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Santa Cruz United FC (6th)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	South Tahoe FC (12th)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Livermore Fusion SC (21st)	2–1	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Solano Surf (22nd)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	North Coast FC BLUE (11th)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (3rd)	0–3	4%
·	Sun May 2	at	Napa United (29th)	2–1	63%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SF United FC

-12

0.60

LWLLL

-0.08

+0.44

21.5

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Association FC (9th)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Elk Grove Soccer (20th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Roseville SC -RL (16th)	2–5
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	Eastshore Alliance FC (23rd)	2–1
L	Sat Aug 15	at	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	0–4

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs North Coast FC BLUE · Sun Nov 1 vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Alameda Soccer Club Islanders See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	North Coast FC BLUE (11th)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (3rd)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Alameda Soccer Club Islanders (24th)	2–1	48%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (2nd)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	SF Aftershocks FC (13th)	0–2	12%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Santa Clara Sporting (25th)	2–1	68%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Burlingame SC (8th)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	West Coast Soccer -RL (15th)	0–3	4%
·	Sun May 2	at	Cal Magic (5th)	0–5	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Elk Grove Soccer

-15

0.60

LLLWL

+0.83

+0.72

22.3

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	South Tahoe FC (12th)	1–2
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	SF United FC (19th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Burlingame SC (8th)	0–8
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	0–6
L	Sat Aug 15	at	South Valley Chivas Navy (1st)	0–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 at San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 8 at Cal Magic See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (2nd)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (7th)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Cal Magic (5th)	0–6	1%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	East Bay United (10th)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	West Coast Soccer -RL (15th)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Reno APEX Soccer Club (28th)	1–2	32%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Eastshore Alliance FC (23rd)	1–1	36%
·	Sun May 2	vs	East County Revolution FC (14th)	1–2	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Livermore Fusion SC

-19

0.57

LLWDL

-0.27

-0.53

21.2

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	San Ramon FC -RL (17th)	1–3
D	Sun Oct 11	vs	Alameda Soccer Club Islanders (24th)	3–3
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Santa Clara Sporting (25th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	North Coast FC BLUE (11th)	1–4
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	West Coast Soccer -RL (15th)	0–3
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	Cal Magic (5th)	0–8
L	Sat Aug 15	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (3rd)	0–5

Next: Sun Oct 25 at SF Aftershocks FC · Sun Nov 1 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Folsom Lake Surf See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	SF Aftershocks FC (13th)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Reno APEX Soccer Club (28th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Folsom Lake Surf (7th)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Napa United (29th)	2–1	51%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (18th)	1–2	33%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Association FC (9th)	1–3	15%
·	Sun May 2	at	South Tahoe FC (12th)	1–3	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Solano Surf

-16

0.50

LLLWL

+0.49

+0.65

23.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	North Coast FC BLUE (11th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Reno APEX Soccer Club (28th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Association FC (9th)	1–3
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	0–10
L	Sun Aug 16	at	East County Revolution FC (14th)	0–2
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Burlingame SC (8th)	1–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at Roseville SC -RL · Sat Nov 7 at Napa United See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (3rd)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Roseville SC -RL (16th)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Napa United (29th)	2–1	54%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	South Valley Chivas Navy (1st)	0–4	3%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Cal Magic (5th)	1–5	2%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (18th)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	SF Aftershocks FC (13th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (7th)	0–2	10%
·	Sun May 2	at	Santa Cruz United FC (6th)	0–4	2%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Eastshore Alliance FC

-14

0.43

LLLLW

-0.36

+0.16

22.5

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Napa United (29th)	2–1
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (18th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Cal Magic (5th)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 20	at	SF Aftershocks FC (13th)	0–3
L	Sun Aug 23	at	East County Revolution FC (14th)	0–3
L	Sun Aug 16	at	SF United FC (19th)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Roseville SC -RL (16th)	0–4

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Ramon FC -RL · Sun Nov 8 vs North Coast FC BLUE · Sun Mar 14 at Burlingame SC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	San Ramon FC -RL (17th)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	North Coast FC BLUE (11th)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Burlingame SC (8th)	1–3	6%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (2nd)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Association FC (9th)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Elk Grove Soccer (20th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Reno APEX Soccer Club (28th)	1–2	22%
·	Sun May 2	at	Folsom Lake Surf (7th)	0–2	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Alameda Soccer Club Islanders

-25

0.43

LLLDL

+0.14

+0.30

23.7

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	0–7
D	Sun Oct 11	at	Livermore Fusion SC (21st)	3–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Association FC (9th)	0–6
L	Sun Sep 20	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (2nd)	0–10
L	Sun Aug 23	at	SF Aftershocks FC (13th)	0–2
D	Sun Aug 16	at	San Ramon FC -RL (17th)	1–1
D	Sat Aug 15	vs	Santa Clara Sporting (25th)	1–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Burlingame SC · Sun Nov 1 at South Valley Chivas Navy · Sun Nov 8 vs SF United FC See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Burlingame SC (8th)	1–4	5%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	South Valley Chivas Navy (1st)	0–6	0%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	SF United FC (19th)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Napa United (29th)	2–1	50%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	East Bay United (10th)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Cal Magic (5th)	0–7	0%
·	Sat May 1	at	North Coast FC BLUE (11th)	0–3	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Santa Clara Sporting

-30

0.17

LLLLL

+0.17

-0.02

26.2

L	Sun Oct 18	at	West Coast Soccer -RL (15th)	1–13
L	Sun Oct 11	at	East County Revolution FC (14th)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Livermore Fusion SC (21st)	1–3
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Cal Magic (5th)	0–6
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (7th)	0–5
D	Sat Aug 15	at	Alameda Soccer Club Islanders (24th)	1–1

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Burlingame SC · Sat Nov 7 vs San Ramon FC -RL · Sun Nov 8 at Association FC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Burlingame SC (8th)	1–5	2%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	San Ramon FC -RL (17th)	1–3	11%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Association FC (9th)	1–5	3%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Reno APEX Soccer Club (28th)	1–3	8%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Roseville SC -RL (16th)	1–4	5%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	SF United FC (19th)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	South Tahoe FC (12th)	0–3	6%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (3rd)	0–5	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Stanford Strikers

0.00

—

Valley Surf

0.00

—

Reno APEX Soccer Club

-11

0.00

LLLLL

+1.10

-0.65

19.4

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Cal Magic (5th)	2–6
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	South Tahoe FC (12th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Solano Surf (22nd)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Folsom Lake Surf (7th)	1–2
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (3rd)	3–4
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	0–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Napa United · Sun Nov 1 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sun Nov 8 vs East Bay United See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Napa United (29th)	3–1	78%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (21st)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	East Bay United (10th)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Santa Clara Sporting (25th)	3–1	82%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Santa Cruz United FC (6th)	0–4	3%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Elk Grove Soccer (20th)	2–1	48%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (2nd)	0–5	2%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Eastshore Alliance FC (23rd)	2–1	58%
·	Sun May 2	at	Roseville SC -RL (16th)	1–3	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Napa United

-29

0.00

LLLLL

+0.90

-0.53

25.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Eastshore Alliance FC (23rd)	1–2
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	South Valley Chivas Navy (1st)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Cal Magic (5th)	0–10
L	Sun Aug 23	at	San Ramon FC -RL (17th)	0–4
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	Association FC (9th)	1–5
L	Sat Aug 15	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (2nd)	1–8

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 vs Solano Surf · Sun Mar 14 vs Livermore Fusion SC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Reno APEX Soccer Club (28th)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Solano Surf (22nd)	1–2	26%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (21st)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	East Bay United (10th)	0–4	4%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Alameda Soccer Club Islanders (24th)	1–2	30%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	0–6	0%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	East County Revolution FC (14th)	0–3	4%
·	Sun May 2	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (18th)	1–2	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.19 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.