East County Revolution FC
ECNL Regional League Girls · NorCal GU16 · 29 teams · Revolution FC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 01:00 PM
Sunset Sports Complex (SSC), Comp Field ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.3 for, 1.0 against · 2.20 expected points)
| Season so far | East County Revolution FC | South Valley United Soccer Club |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 14th | 18th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-3 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 3.0 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L W W | L W L D L |
| Biggest win | 5–0 vs Santa Clara Sporting | 2–1 at Eastshore Alliance FC |
| Worst loss | 0–3 at South Tahoe FC | 1–5 vs San Francisco Elite Academy |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.30 | -1.11 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.56 | +0.32 |
Common opponents: East Bay United — we 0–1; they 2–2. Eastshore Alliance FC — we 3–0; they 2–1.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–1 at East Bay United, 0–3 at South Tahoe FC, 0–2 at Santa Cruz United FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 67% / draw 18% / loss 15%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
SF Aftershocks FC sit 13th on 1.67 PPG; we are on 1.50.A point moves us above SF Aftershocks FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the South Valley United Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (East County Revolution FC – South Valley United Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.71 PPG |
12th▲ up 2 | 10th▲ up 4 | 13th▲ up 1 |
| Win 1.71 PPG |
12th▲ up 2 | 10th▲ up 4 | 13th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.43 PPG |
15th▼ down 1 | 15th▼ down 1 | 15th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.29 PPG |
15th▼ down 1 | 16th▼ down 2 | 17th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 10th if every rival drops points, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th <1%
- 6th <1%
- 7th 1%
- 8th 2%
- 9th 3%
- 10th 6%
- 11th 8%
- 12th 13%
- 13th 15%
- 14th 18%
- 15th 18%
- 16th 11%
- 17th 4%
- 18th 1%
- 19th <1%
- 20th <1%
- 21st
- 22nd
- 23rd
- 24th
- 25th
- 26th
- 27th
- 28th
- 29th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.36 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Valley Chivas Navy | 3.00 (+1.50) | 4th (2.56) | 33 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | San Francisco Elite Academy | 3.00 (+1.50) | 3rd (2.62) | 33 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Los Gatos United Soccer Club | 3.00 (+1.50) | 1st (2.65) | 33 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Walnut Creek Surf | 2.71 (+1.21) | 2nd (2.63) | 29 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Cal Magic | 2.57 (+1.07) | 5th (2.44) | 27 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | Santa Cruz United FC | 2.14 (+0.64) | 8th (2.09) | 21 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 7 | Folsom Lake Surf | 2.14 (+0.64) | 7th (2.10) | 21 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 8 | Burlingame SC | 2.14 (+0.64) | 6th (2.16) | 21 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 9 | Association FC | 2.14 (+0.64) | 9th (1.77) | 21 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 10 | East Bay United | 1.83 (+0.33) | 10th (1.75) | 17 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 11 | North Coast FC BLUE | 1.80 (+0.30) | 12th (1.61) | 17 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 12 | South Tahoe FC | 1.67 (+0.17) | 13th (1.55) | A point next game |
| 13 | SF Aftershocks FC | 1.67 (+0.17) | 14th (1.55) | A point next game |
How the results connect
8 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link East County Revolution FC to South Valley United Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 13th hardest of 27
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 01:00 PM |
South Valley United Soccer Club 18th · 1-1-4 · GD -11 |
Home Sunset Sports Complex (SSC) |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–0 | 2.20 | 1.60 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM |
West Coast Soccer -RL 15th · 3-1-3 · GD +13 |
Away Cayetano Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–1 | 0.80 | 1.50 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 02:00 PM |
South Valley Chivas Navy 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +24 |
Home Sunset Sports Complex (SSC) |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.73 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 02:00 PM |
Los Gatos United Soccer Club 3rd · 5-0-0 · GD +14 |
Home Sunset Sports Complex (SSC) |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–1 | 0.85 | 1.36 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 02:00 PM |
San Ramon FC -RL 17th · 2-1-3 · GD -6 |
Away San Ramon Sports Park - Tiffany Roberts |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
1–1 | 1.77 | 1.39 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 02:00 PM |
Folsom Lake Surf 7th · 5-0-2 · GD +7 |
Home Sunset Sports Complex (SSC) |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.21 | 1.38 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 02:00 PM |
Napa United 29th · 0-0-6 · GD -29 |
Home Sunset Sports Complex (SSC) |
●○○○○ Favorable | 87% |
3–0 | 2.70 | 1.48 | Bank it |
| Sun May 2 10:00 AM |
Elk Grove Soccer 20th · 1-0-4 · GD -15 |
Away far trip
Hal Bartholomew Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
2–1 | 2.15 | 1.53 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | South Valley Chivas Navy | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 6 | +24 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.34 | +0.34 | 77% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Roseville SC -RL · Sun Nov 1 vs Alameda Soccer Club Islanders · Sun Mar 14 at East County Revolution FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | San Francisco Elite Academy | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 2 | +24 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.78 | +0.01 | 79% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Cal Magic · Sun Oct 25 vs Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Nov 1 at Association FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Los Gatos United Soccer Club | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 3 | +14 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | +0.22 | -0.65 | 85% | 2.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Solano Surf · Sun Nov 1 at SF United FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Burlingame SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Walnut Creek Surf | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 1 | +34 | 19 | 2.71 | WWWDW | -1.05 | +0.26 | 86% | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Association FC · Sun Nov 1 at San Ramon FC -RL · Sun Apr 4 vs Cal Magic See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Cal Magic | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 42 | 7 | +35 | 18 | 2.57 | WWLWW | -1.39 | -0.17 | 55% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 8 vs Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Mar 14 at SF Aftershocks FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Santa Cruz United FC | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 5 | +20 | 15 | 2.14 | WLWWW | +0.47 | +0.38 | 4% | 7.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at South Tahoe FC · Sun Nov 8 at South Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Mar 14 at Folsom Lake Surf See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Folsom Lake Surf | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 15 | 2.14 | LWLWW | +0.41 | -0.62 | 5% | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at South Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Nov 8 vs Livermore Fusion SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Burlingame SC | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 16 | +6 | 15 | 2.14 | WWWWL | +0.46 | -0.89 | 8% | 6.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Alameda Soccer Club Islanders · Sun Nov 1 at Santa Clara Sporting · Sun Nov 8 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Association FC | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 18 | +3 | 15 | 2.14 | LWWLW | -0.69 | -0.08 | 0% | 10.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Clara Sporting See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | East Bay United | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 11 | 1.83 | DWDLW | +0.32 | -0.34 | 1% | 10.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs West Coast Soccer -RL · Sun Nov 1 vs SF Aftershocks FC · Sun Nov 8 at Reno APEX Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | North Coast FC BLUE | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 9 | 1.80 | WLWLW | -0.50 | -0.07 | 0% | 12.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at SF United FC · Sun Nov 1 vs West Coast Soccer -RL · Sun Nov 8 at Eastshore Alliance FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | South Tahoe FC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 10 | 1.67 | DLWWW | +0.10 | +0.09 | 0% | 13.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Santa Cruz United FC · Sun Nov 8 at Roseville SC -RL · Sun Mar 14 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | SF Aftershocks FC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 10 | 1.67 | WWLDW | +0.38 | +0.12 | 0% | 13.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sun Nov 1 at East Bay United · Sun Nov 8 vs San Francisco Elite Academy See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | East County Revolution FC | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 9 | 1.50 | WWLWL | -0.56 | +0.00 | 0% | 13.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs South Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at West Coast Soccer -RL · Sun Mar 14 vs South Valley Chivas Navy See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | West Coast Soccer -RL | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 7 | +13 | 10 | 1.43 | WDLLW | +0.19 | -0.09 | 0% | 10.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at East Bay United · Sun Nov 1 at North Coast FC BLUE · Sun Nov 8 vs East County Revolution FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Roseville SC -RL | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 7 | 1.17 | LLDWL | +0.26 | -0.13 | 0% | 14.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at South Valley Chivas Navy · Sun Nov 1 vs Solano Surf · Sun Nov 8 vs South Tahoe FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | San Ramon FC -RL | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 7 | 1.17 | DWLLW | -0.32 | +0.13 | 0% | 16.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Eastshore Alliance FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Nov 7 at Santa Clara Sporting See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4 | 0.67 | LDLWL | +0.32 | -0.11 | 0% | 19.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 1 at East County Revolution FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Cruz United FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | SF United FC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 3 | 0.60 | LWLLL | -0.08 | +0.44 | 0% | 21.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs North Coast FC BLUE · Sun Nov 1 vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Alameda Soccer Club Islanders See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 20 | Elk Grove Soccer | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 19 | -15 | 3 | 0.60 | LLLWL | +0.83 | +0.72 | 0% | 22.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 8 at Cal Magic See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 21 | Livermore Fusion SC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 27 | -19 | 4 | 0.57 | LLWDL | -0.27 | -0.53 | 0% | 21.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at SF Aftershocks FC · Sun Nov 1 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Folsom Lake Surf See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 22 | Solano Surf | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 21 | -16 | 3 | 0.50 | LLLWL | +0.49 | +0.65 | 0% | 23.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at Roseville SC -RL · Sat Nov 7 at Napa United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 23 | Eastshore Alliance FC | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 3 | 0.43 | LLLLW | -0.36 | +0.16 | 0% | 22.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Ramon FC -RL · Sun Nov 8 vs North Coast FC BLUE · Sun Mar 14 at Burlingame SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 24 | Alameda Soccer Club Islanders | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 30 | -25 | 3 | 0.43 | LLLDL | +0.14 | +0.30 | 0% | 23.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Burlingame SC · Sun Nov 1 at South Valley Chivas Navy · Sun Nov 8 vs SF United FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 25 | Santa Clara Sporting | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 33 | -30 | 1 | 0.17 | LLLLL | +0.17 | -0.02 | 0% | 26.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Burlingame SC · Sat Nov 7 vs San Ramon FC -RL · Sun Nov 8 at Association FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 26 | Stanford Strikers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. |
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| 27 | Valley Surf | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. |
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| 28 | Reno APEX Soccer Club | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.10 | -0.65 | 0% | 19.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Napa United · Sun Nov 1 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sun Nov 8 vs East Bay United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 29 | Napa United | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 32 | -29 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.90 | -0.53 | 0% | 24.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 vs Solano Surf · Sun Mar 14 vs Livermore Fusion SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.19 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.