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San Francisco Elite Academy

ECNL Regional League Girls · NorCal GU16 · 29 teams · San Francisco Elite Academy (all teams)

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2nd
5-0-0 record · 5 played
3.00 points per game
+24 goal diff · 26–2
WWWWWlast 5
81% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.9
-0.78 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:40 AM

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San Francisco Elite Academy
2nd · 3.00 PPG
at
Cal Magic
5th · 2.57 PPG

Wilder Sports Complex, Field #1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.5 for, 2.5 against · 1.40 expected points)

Season so farSan Francisco Elite AcademyCal Magic
Position2nd5th
Record (W-D-L)5-0-06-0-1
Points per game3.002.57
Goals for / game5.26.0
Goals against / game0.41.0
Clean sheets33
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W W W WW W L W W
Biggest win10–0 vs Alameda Soccer Club Islanders10–0 at Napa United
Worst loss—2–3 vs Burlingame SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.60+2.77
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.78-1.39

Common opponents: Napa United — we 8–1; they 10–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Cal Magic score 6.0/game — well above the league's 2.2.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Cal Magic concede only 1.0/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 40%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:40 AM at Wilder Sports Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:40 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    South Valley Chivas Navy sit 1st on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.

    A win moves us above South Valley Chivas Navy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Cal Magic game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Francisco Elite Academy – Cal Magic) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.67 PPG		 4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2
Win
3.00 PPG		 1st▲ up 1 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.67 PPG		 4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2
Loss
2.50 PPG		 5th▼ down 3 5th▼ down 3 5th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

25% finish 1st
81% top 4
19% below the top 4
2.9 average finish
  1. 1st 25%
  2. 2nd 21%
  3. 3rd 18%
  4. 4th 18%
  5. 5th 12%
  6. 6th 4%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd
  23. 23rd
  24. 24th
  25. 25th
  26. 26th
  27. 27th
  28. 28th
  29. 29th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 South Valley Chivas Navy 3.00 (+0.00) 4th (2.56) Win next game

How the results connect

12 chains · 13 teams

Paths of results that link San Francisco Elite Academy to Cal Magic through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us
4 favour them
+1.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
8–1 0–10 2–0 5–0 0–6 2–1 2–6 5–1 0–4 3–2 10–0 3–3 0–8 2–1 1–4 0–4 1–6 1–2 1–0 3–0 1–1 1–1 13–1 San Francisco Elite… 2nd Napa United 29th Folsom Lake Surf 7th South Valley United… 18th Alameda Soccer Club… 24th West Coast Soccer -… 15th Santa Clara Sporting 25th Reno APEX Soccer Cl… 28th Burlingame SC 8th Livermore Fusion SC 21st Eastshore Alliance … 23rd San Ramon FC -RL 17th Cal Magic 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 15th 29th Aug 15 Aug 23 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.01 · 12th hardest of 27

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:40 AM		 Cal Magic
5th · 6-0-1 · GD +35		 Away far trip
Wilder Sports Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
40%		 2–2 1.40 2.73 Upside
Sun Oct 25
12:45 PM		 Elk Grove Soccer
20th · 1-0-4 · GD -15		 Home
Pollicita Middle School		 ●○○○○ Favorable
97%		 5–0 2.93 2.76 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
02:00 PM		 Association FC
9th · 5-0-2 · GD +3		 Away far trip
Alden E. Oliver Sports Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
82%		 4–1 2.56 2.74 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
12:30 PM		 SF Aftershocks FC
13th · 3-1-2 · GD +0		 Away far trip
Kimbell		 ●●○○○ Lean win
74%		 2–1 2.36 2.69 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 SF United FC
19th · 1-0-4 · GD -12		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
96%		 5–0 2.91 2.72 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Eastshore Alliance FC
23rd · 1-0-6 · GD -14		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
93%		 4–0 2.83 2.73 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
02:00 PM		 South Valley Chivas Navy
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +24		 Away far trip
Riverway Sports Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
41%		 2–2 1.43 2.62 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Reno APEX Soccer Club
28th · 0-0-6 · GD -11		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
94%		 5–0 2.86 2.64 Bank it
Sun May 2
TBD		 North Coast FC BLUE
11th · 3-0-2 · GD +2		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
74%		 3–1 2.37 2.62 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 South Valley Chivas Navy 7700 306+24 213.00 WWWWW -0.34 +0.34 76% 3.3
2 San Francisco Elite Academy 5500 262+24 153.00 WWWWW -0.78 +0.01 81% 2.9
3 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 5500 173+14 153.00 WWWWW +0.22 -0.65 85% 2.7
4 Walnut Creek Surf 7610 351+34 192.71 WWWDW -1.05 +0.26 87% 2.7
5 Cal Magic 7601 427+35 182.57 WWLWW -1.39 -0.17 55% 4.2
6 Santa Cruz United FC 7502 255+20 152.14 WLWWW +0.47 +0.38 4% 7.4
7 Folsom Lake Surf 7502 136+7 152.14 LWLWW +0.41 -0.62 5% 7.5
8 Burlingame SC 7502 2216+6 152.14 WWWWL +0.46 -0.89 7% 6.8
9 Association FC 7502 2118+3 152.14 LWWLW -0.69 -0.08 0% 10.8
10 East Bay United 6321 1210+2 111.83 DWDLW +0.32 -0.34 0% 10.8
11 North Coast FC BLUE 5302 108+2 91.80 WLWLW -0.50 -0.07 0% 12.5
12 South Tahoe FC 6312 98+1 101.67 DLWWW +0.10 +0.09 0% 13.2
13 SF Aftershocks FC 6312 1010+0 101.67 WWLDW +0.38 +0.12 0% 13.1
14 East County Revolution FC 6303 106+4 91.50 WWLWL -0.56 +0.00 0% 13.2
15 West Coast Soccer -RL 7313 207+13 101.43 WDLLW +0.19 -0.09 0% 10.9
16 Roseville SC -RL 6213 1415-1 71.17 LLDWL +0.26 -0.13 0% 14.9
17 San Ramon FC -RL 6213 1117-6 71.17 DWLLW -0.32 +0.13 0% 17.0
18 South Valley United Soccer Club 6114 718-11 40.67 LDLWL +0.32 -0.11 0% 19.6
19 SF United FC 5104 416-12 30.60 LWLLL -0.08 +0.44 0% 21.5
20 Elk Grove Soccer 5104 419-15 30.60 LLLWL +0.83 +0.72 0% 22.3
21 Livermore Fusion SC 7115 827-19 40.57 LLWDL -0.27 -0.53 0% 21.2
22 Solano Surf 6105 521-16 30.50 LLLWL +0.49 +0.65 0% 23.0
23 Eastshore Alliance FC 7106 519-14 30.43 LLLLW -0.36 +0.16 0% 22.5
24 Alameda Soccer Club Islanders 7034 530-25 30.43 LLLDL +0.14 +0.30 0% 23.7
25 Santa Clara Sporting 6015 333-30 10.17 LLLLL +0.17 -0.02 0% 26.2
26 Stanford Strikers 0000 00+0 00.00 — — ——
27 Valley Surf 0000 00+0 00.00 — — ——
28 Reno APEX Soccer Club 6006 819-11 00.00 LLLLL +1.10 -0.65 0% 19.4
29 Napa United 6006 332-29 00.00 LLLLL +0.90 -0.53 0% 25.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.19 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.