Folsom Lake Surf
ECNL Regional League Girls · NorCal GU15 · 28 teams · Folsom Lake Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 04:00 PM
Neighborhood Church, Field 2 ↗ far trip
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.3 for, 1.2 against · 2.03 expected points)
| Season so far | Folsom Lake Surf | South Valley United Soccer Club |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 13th | 15th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-2-2 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per game | 1.57 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / game | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W D D | L L W L W |
| Biggest win | 9–0 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club | 5–0 vs San Francisco Elite Academy |
| Worst loss | 1–3 vs El Dorado Hills SC | 1–4 vs San Juan South |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.40 | -0.01 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.63 | -0.09 |
Common opponents: San Francisco Elite Academy — we 0–0; they 5–0.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 at San Francisco Elite Academy, 0–0 vs Reno APEX Soccer Club.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 61% / draw 19% / loss 19%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Away game
Kickoff 04:00 PM at Neighborhood Church.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
East County Revolution FC sit 12th on 1.60 PPG; we are on 1.57.A point moves us above East County Revolution FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the South Valley United Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Folsom Lake Surf – South Valley United Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.75 PPG |
11th▲ up 2 | 12th▲ up 1 | 13th— holds |
| Win 1.75 PPG |
11th▲ up 2 | 12th▲ up 1 | 13th— holds |
| Draw 1.50 PPG |
14th▼ down 1 | 13th— holds | 15th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.38 PPG |
15th▼ down 2 | 15th▼ down 2 | 19th▼ down 6 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 1%
- 5th 4%
- 6th 8%
- 7th 11%
- 8th 12%
- 9th 12%
- 10th 12%
- 11th 10%
- 12th 9%
- 13th 7%
- 14th 4%
- 15th 4%
- 16th 2%
- 17th 2%
- 18th 1%
- 19th <1%
- 20th <1%
- 21st
- 22nd <1%
- 23rd
- 24th
- 25th
- 26th
- 27th
- 28th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.33 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Napa United | 3.00 (+1.43) | 1st (2.52) | 34 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Burlingame SC | 3.00 (+1.43) | 3rd (2.43) | 34 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Livermore Fusion SC | 2.67 (+1.10) | 2nd (2.49) | 30 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | El Dorado Hills SC | 2.50 (+0.93) | 4th (2.38) | 27 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Madera United FC | 2.29 (+0.72) | 8th (1.93) | 24 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 6 | Alameda Soccer Club Islanders | 2.00 (+0.43) | 7th (1.95) | 19 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 7 | Los Gatos United Soccer Club | 2.00 (+0.43) | 11th (1.70) | 19 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 8 | San Juan South | 1.86 (+0.29) | 12th (1.69) | 17 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 9 | SF United FC | 1.86 (+0.29) | 13th (1.69) | 17 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 10 | Walnut Creek Surf | 1.83 (+0.26) | 6th (1.96) | 17 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 11 | Santa Cruz United FC | 1.71 (+0.14) | 14th (1.56) | A point next game |
| 12 | East County Revolution FC | 1.60 (+0.03) | 5th (1.97) | A point next game |
How the results connect
7 chains · 13 teams
Paths of results that link Folsom Lake Surf to South Valley United Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.38 · 8th hardest of 27
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 04:00 PM |
South Valley United Soccer Club 15th · 3-0-3 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Neighborhood Church |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
2–1 | 2.03 | 1.63 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 12:15 PM |
Elk Grove Soccer 18th · 2-0-3 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Hal Bartholomew Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
2–1 | 1.99 | 1.67 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 02:00 PM |
Livermore Fusion SC 3rd · 5-1-0 · GD +38 |
Home Econome Family Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.86 | 1.59 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 10:00 AM |
Santa Cruz United FC 11th · 4-0-3 · GD +2 |
Home Folsom Lake College · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 75% |
3–1 | 2.38 | 1.66 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 03:45 PM |
North Coast FC BLUE 19th · 2-1-3 · GD -2 |
Home Econome Family Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
2–1 | 2.34 | 1.72 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 12:00 PM |
East County Revolution FC 12th · 2-2-1 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Sunset Sports Complex (SSC) |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.34 | 1.69 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 10:00 AM |
Solano Surf 23rd · 0-1-5 · GD -11 |
Away far trip
Octo Inn Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
3–1 | 2.45 | 1.74 | Bank it |
| Sun May 2 10:00 AM |
Eastshore Alliance FC 21st · 1-2-3 · GD -7 |
Home Folsom Lake College · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
2–0 | 2.44 | 1.79 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Napa United | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 4 | +33 | 24 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.64 | +0.99 | 92% | 2.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 vs Solano Surf · Sun Mar 14 vs Livermore Fusion SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Burlingame SC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.22 | -0.55 | 81% | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Oct 18 vs South Valley Chivas · Sun Oct 25 at Alameda Soccer Club Islanders See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Livermore Fusion SC | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 41 | 3 | +38 | 16 | 2.67 | WWWWW | -1.26 | +0.33 | 91% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Mar 14 at Napa United See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | El Dorado Hills SC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 3 | +20 | 15 | 2.50 | WLWWW | -0.54 | -0.40 | 80% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sun Oct 25 at South Valley Chivas · Sun Nov 1 vs Solano Surf See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Madera United FC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 16 | 2.29 | WWDWL | -0.07 | +1.16 | 10% | 8.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Santa Cruz United FC · Sun Nov 8 at El Dorado Hills SC · Sun Mar 14 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Alameda Soccer Club Islanders | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 10 | 2.00 | WDWLW | +0.32 | -0.07 | 14% | 7.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Burlingame SC · Sun Nov 1 at South Valley Chivas · Sun Nov 8 vs SF United FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Los Gatos United Soccer Club | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 10 | 2.00 | DWWLW | -0.71 | +0.67 | 2% | 11.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Solano Surf · Sun Nov 1 at SF United FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Burlingame SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | San Juan South | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 13 | 1.86 | LWDWW | -0.87 | +0.41 | 2% | 11.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs West Coast Soccer -RL · Sun Nov 8 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sun Mar 14 at Elk Grove Soccer See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | SF United FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 13 | 1.86 | WWLWW | -0.97 | +0.04 | 1% | 11.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs North Coast FC BLUE · Sun Nov 1 vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Alameda Soccer Club Islanders See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Walnut Creek Surf | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 11 | 1.83 | DWWDL | +0.53 | -1.27 | 8% | 7.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Association FC · Sun Nov 1 at San Ramon FC · Sun Mar 14 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Santa Cruz United FC | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 12 | 1.71 | WWWLL | -0.62 | -0.59 | 0% | 13.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Madera United FC · Sun Nov 1 at Stanford Strikers · Sun Nov 8 at South Valley United Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | East County Revolution FC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 8 | 1.60 | LWDDW | +0.13 | -1.16 | 12% | 7.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sun Nov 1 vs South Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at West Coast Soccer -RL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Folsom Lake Surf | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 5 | +16 | 11 | 1.57 | DDWWL | -0.63 | +0.38 | 2% | 9.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at South Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Nov 8 vs Livermore Fusion SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Reno APEX Soccer Club | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 11 | 1.57 | LDWLW | +0.10 | +1.22 | 0% | 14.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Napa United · Sun Nov 1 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sun Nov 8 vs San Juan South See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 9 | 1.50 | WLWLL | -0.09 | +1.04 | 0% | 18.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 1 at East County Revolution FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Cruz United FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | San Francisco Elite Academy | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 6 | +16 | 8 | 1.33 | LDDWW | -1.18 | -0.35 | 4% | 8.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Nov 1 at Association FC · Sat Nov 7 at Cal Magic See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Association FC | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 9 | 1.29 | WWLWL | +0.39 | -0.11 | 0% | 18.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Mar 14 at Stanford Strikers See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Elk Grove Soccer | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 6 | 1.20 | LWLLW | +0.02 | -0.29 | 0% | 17.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at Burlingame SC · Sun Oct 25 at San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Folsom Lake Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | North Coast FC BLUE | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 7 | 1.17 | LWLLD | +0.36 | -0.47 | 0% | 17.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at SF United FC · Sun Nov 1 vs West Coast Soccer -RL · Sun Nov 8 at Eastshore Alliance FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 20 | Cal Magic | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 6 | 1.00 | LLLWL | +0.63 | +0.03 | 0% | 17.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 8 vs Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Apr 4 at Walnut Creek Surf See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 21 | Eastshore Alliance FC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 5 | 0.83 | DDLWL | +1.05 | -0.63 | 0% | 19.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Ramon FC · Sun Nov 1 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sun Nov 8 vs North Coast FC BLUE See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 22 | South Valley Chivas | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3 | 0.60 | WLLLL | +0.95 | -0.25 | 0% | 20.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 at Burlingame SC · Sun Oct 25 vs El Dorado Hills SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Alameda Soccer Club Islanders See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 23 | Solano Surf | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 1 | 0.17 | LLLLD | +0.50 | +0.78 | 0% | 23.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at El Dorado Hills SC · Sat Nov 7 at Napa United See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 24 | Santa Clara Sporting | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. |
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| 25 | Stanford Strikers | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 33 | -31 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.83 | +0.21 | 0% | 25.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Santa Cruz United FC · Sun Nov 8 vs San Ramon FC · Sun Mar 14 vs Association FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 26 | San Ramon FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 50 | -48 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.43 | -1.23 | 0% | 24.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Eastshore Alliance FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sun Nov 8 at Stanford Strikers See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 27 | West Coast Soccer -RL | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 48 | -48 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.55 | -0.97 | 0% | 25.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at San Juan South · Sun Nov 1 at North Coast FC BLUE · Sun Nov 8 vs East County Revolution FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 28 | Diablo Valley Futbol Club | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 55 | -54 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.19 | -0.48 | 0% | 25.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at El Dorado Hills SC · Sun Oct 25 vs East County Revolution FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Eastshore Alliance FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.