Santa Cruz United FC
ECNL Regional League Girls · NorCal GU15 · 28 teams · Santa Cruz United Football Club (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM
Madera South Highschool, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.3 for, 2.9 against · 0.57 expected points)
| Season so far | Santa Cruz United FC | Madera United FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 11th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-0-3 | 5-1-1 |
| Points per game | 1.71 | 2.29 |
| Goals for / game | 2.9 | 2.6 |
| Goals against / game | 2.6 | 0.7 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 4 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W W W | L W D W W |
| Biggest win | 8–1 vs San Ramon FC | 10–0 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club |
| Worst loss | 1–7 vs East County Revolution FC | 1–3 at Elk Grove Soccer |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.08 | +1.17 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.62 | -0.07 |
Common opponents: East County Revolution FC — we 1–7; they 1–1.
Game plan
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Hard to break down
Madera United FC concede only 0.7/game with 4 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at Association FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 14%; a draw (15%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 10:00 AM at Madera South Highschool.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Walnut Creek Surf sit 10th on 1.83 PPG; we are on 1.71.A point moves us above Walnut Creek Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Madera United FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Santa Cruz United FC – Madera United FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.50 PPG |
14th▼ down 3 | 14th▼ down 3 | 16th▼ down 5 |
| Win 1.88 PPG |
8th▲ up 3 | 10th▲ up 1 | 11th— holds |
| Draw 1.63 PPG |
11th— holds | 13th▼ down 2 | 15th▼ down 4 |
| Loss 1.50 PPG |
14th▼ down 3 | 14th▼ down 3 | 16th▼ down 5 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 11th even if every rival loses, and as low as 16th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th
- 5th <1%
- 6th 1%
- 7th 3%
- 8th 4%
- 9th 5%
- 10th 6%
- 11th 8%
- 12th 12%
- 13th 12%
- 14th 13%
- 15th 12%
- 16th 10%
- 17th 5%
- 18th 4%
- 19th 2%
- 20th 1%
- 21st <1%
- 22nd <1%
- 23rd
- 24th
- 25th
- 26th
- 27th
- 28th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Napa United | 3.00 (+1.29) | 1st (2.52) | 36 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Burlingame SC | 3.00 (+1.29) | 3rd (2.43) | 36 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 3 | Livermore Fusion SC | 2.67 (+0.96) | 2nd (2.49) | 31 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | El Dorado Hills SC | 2.50 (+0.79) | 4th (2.38) | 28 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 5 | Madera United FC | 2.29 (+0.58) | 8th (1.93) | 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 6 | Alameda Soccer Club Islanders | 2.00 (+0.29) | 7th (1.95) | 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 7 | Los Gatos United Soccer Club | 2.00 (+0.29) | 11th (1.70) | 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 8 | San Juan South | 1.86 (+0.15) | 12th (1.69) | A point next game |
| 9 | SF United FC | 1.86 (+0.15) | 13th (1.69) | A point next game |
| 10 | Walnut Creek Surf | 1.83 (+0.12) | 6th (1.96) | A point next game |
How the results connect
7 chains · 12 teams
Paths of results that link Santa Cruz United FC to Madera United FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.59 · 22nd hardest of 27
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
Madera United FC 5th · 5-1-1 · GD +13 |
Away far trip
Madera South Highschool |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–2 | 0.57 | 1.57 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 03:00 PM |
Stanford Strikers 25th · 0-0-7 · GD -31 |
Away far trip
Hillview Middle School soccer field |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
3–1 | 2.61 | 1.69 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 02:00 PM |
South Valley United Soccer Club 15th · 3-0-3 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Neighborhood Church |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
2–2 | 1.21 | 1.64 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 10:00 AM |
Folsom Lake Surf 13th · 3-2-2 · GD +16 |
Away far trip
Folsom Lake College · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–3 | 0.49 | 1.53 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 01:00 PM |
Reno APEX Soccer Club 14th · 3-2-2 · GD +11 |
Home New Brighton Middle School |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–2 | 0.89 | 1.48 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Walnut Creek Surf 10th · 3-2-1 · GD +5 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.82 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 01:00 PM |
Diablo Valley Futbol Club 28th · 0-0-6 · GD -54 |
Home New Brighton Middle School |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
7–1 | 2.96 | 1.54 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 10:00 AM |
South Valley Chivas 22nd · 1-0-4 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Burton Middle School |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
2–2 | 1.40 | 1.53 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 03:00 PM |
Solano Surf 23rd · 0-1-5 · GD -11 |
Home New Brighton Middle School |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
3–1 | 2.08 | 1.56 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Napa United | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 4 | +33 | 24 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.64 | +0.99 | 90% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 vs Solano Surf · Sun Mar 14 vs Livermore Fusion SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Burlingame SC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.22 | -0.55 | 82% | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Oct 18 vs South Valley Chivas · Sun Oct 25 at Alameda Soccer Club Islanders See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Livermore Fusion SC | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 41 | 3 | +38 | 16 | 2.67 | WWWWW | -1.26 | +0.33 | 90% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Mar 14 at Napa United See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | El Dorado Hills SC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 3 | +20 | 15 | 2.50 | WLWWW | -0.54 | -0.40 | 80% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sun Oct 25 at South Valley Chivas · Sun Nov 1 vs Solano Surf See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Madera United FC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 16 | 2.29 | WWDWL | -0.07 | +1.16 | 9% | 8.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Santa Cruz United FC · Sun Nov 8 at El Dorado Hills SC · Sun Mar 14 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Alameda Soccer Club Islanders | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 10 | 2.00 | WDWLW | +0.32 | -0.07 | 14% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Burlingame SC · Sun Nov 1 at South Valley Chivas · Sun Nov 8 vs SF United FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Los Gatos United Soccer Club | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 10 | 2.00 | DWWLW | -0.71 | +0.67 | 3% | 11.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Solano Surf · Sun Nov 1 at SF United FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Burlingame SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | San Juan South | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 13 | 1.86 | LWDWW | -0.87 | +0.41 | 1% | 11.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs West Coast Soccer -RL · Sun Nov 8 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sun Mar 14 at Elk Grove Soccer See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | SF United FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 13 | 1.86 | WWLWW | -0.97 | +0.04 | 1% | 11.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs North Coast FC BLUE · Sun Nov 1 vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Alameda Soccer Club Islanders See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Walnut Creek Surf | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 11 | 1.83 | DWWDL | +0.53 | -1.27 | 9% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Association FC · Sun Nov 1 at San Ramon FC · Sun Mar 14 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Santa Cruz United FC | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 12 | 1.71 | WWWLL | -0.62 | -0.59 | 0% | 13.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Madera United FC · Sun Nov 1 at Stanford Strikers · Sun Nov 8 at South Valley United Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | East County Revolution FC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 8 | 1.60 | LWDDW | +0.13 | -1.16 | 12% | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sun Nov 1 vs South Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at West Coast Soccer -RL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Folsom Lake Surf | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 5 | +16 | 11 | 1.57 | DDWWL | -0.63 | +0.38 | 3% | 9.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at South Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Nov 8 vs Livermore Fusion SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Reno APEX Soccer Club | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 11 | 1.57 | LDWLW | +0.10 | +1.22 | 0% | 14.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Napa United · Sun Nov 1 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sun Nov 8 vs San Juan South See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 9 | 1.50 | WLWLL | -0.09 | +1.04 | 0% | 18.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 1 at East County Revolution FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Cruz United FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | San Francisco Elite Academy | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 6 | +16 | 8 | 1.33 | LDDWW | -1.18 | -0.35 | 4% | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Nov 1 at Association FC · Sat Nov 7 at Cal Magic See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Association FC | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 9 | 1.29 | WWLWL | +0.39 | -0.11 | 0% | 18.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Mar 14 at Stanford Strikers See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Elk Grove Soccer | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 6 | 1.20 | LWLLW | +0.02 | -0.29 | 0% | 17.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at Burlingame SC · Sun Oct 25 at San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Folsom Lake Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | North Coast FC BLUE | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 7 | 1.17 | LWLLD | +0.36 | -0.47 | 0% | 17.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at SF United FC · Sun Nov 1 vs West Coast Soccer -RL · Sun Nov 8 at Eastshore Alliance FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 20 | Cal Magic | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 6 | 1.00 | LLLWL | +0.63 | +0.03 | 0% | 17.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 8 vs Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Apr 4 at Walnut Creek Surf See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 21 | Eastshore Alliance FC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 5 | 0.83 | DDLWL | +1.05 | -0.63 | 0% | 19.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Ramon FC · Sun Nov 1 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sun Nov 8 vs North Coast FC BLUE See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 22 | South Valley Chivas | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3 | 0.60 | WLLLL | +0.95 | -0.25 | 0% | 20.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 at Burlingame SC · Sun Oct 25 vs El Dorado Hills SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Alameda Soccer Club Islanders See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 23 | Solano Surf | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 1 | 0.17 | LLLLD | +0.50 | +0.78 | 0% | 23.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at El Dorado Hills SC · Sat Nov 7 at Napa United See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 24 | Santa Clara Sporting | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. |
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| 25 | Stanford Strikers | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 33 | -31 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.83 | +0.21 | 0% | 25.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Santa Cruz United FC · Sun Nov 8 vs San Ramon FC · Sun Mar 14 vs Association FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 26 | San Ramon FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 50 | -48 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.43 | -1.23 | 0% | 24.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Eastshore Alliance FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sun Nov 8 at Stanford Strikers See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 27 | West Coast Soccer -RL | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 48 | -48 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.55 | -0.97 | 0% | 25.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at San Juan South · Sun Nov 1 at North Coast FC BLUE · Sun Nov 8 vs East County Revolution FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 28 | Diablo Valley Futbol Club | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 55 | -54 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.19 | -0.48 | 0% | 25.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at El Dorado Hills SC · Sun Oct 25 vs East County Revolution FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Eastshore Alliance FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.