TableChase Clubs

Alameda Soccer Club Islanders

ECNL Regional League Girls · NorCal GU15 · 28 teams · Alameda Soccer Club (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 1 hour ago.
Add schedule to calendar
6th
3-1-1 record · 5 played
2.00 points per game
+11 goal diff · 17–6
WDWLWlast 5
14% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.0
+0.32 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM

Open the match preview →

Alameda Soccer Club Islanders
6th · 2.00 PPG
vs
Burlingame SC
2nd · 3.00 PPG

Hornet Soccer Field, Hornet Grass Field ↗ · grass

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.4 for, 2.1 against · 1.60 expected points)

Season so farAlameda Soccer Club IslandersBurlingame SC
Position6th2nd
Record (W-D-L)3-1-15-0-0
Points per game2.003.00
Goals for / game3.43.8
Goals against / game1.21.4
Clean sheets30
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W L W D WW W W W W
Biggest win7–0 at Association FC6–2 vs Santa Cruz United FC
Worst loss1–4 at Livermore Fusion SC—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.36+1.43
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.32-0.22

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Burlingame SC score 3.8/game — well above the league's 2.3.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at San Francisco Elite Academy.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 47% / draw 19% / loss 34%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • They arrive in form
    Burlingame SC have won 5 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Grass field
    Venue listed as "Hornet Grass Field" at Hornet Soccer Field.

    If the team trains on turf: the ball will be slower and bounce less true. Weight passes harder, favour early crosses in the final third, and bring FG/SG cleats. Warm up on the field, not the track.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Burlingame SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Alameda Soccer Club Islanders – Burlingame SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.83 PPG		 9th▼ down 3 11th▼ down 5 11th▼ down 5
Win
2.17 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Draw
1.83 PPG		 9th▼ down 3 11th▼ down 5 11th▼ down 5
Loss
1.67 PPG		 11th▼ down 5 12th▼ down 6 15th▼ down 9

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
14% top 4
87% below the top 4
8.0 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 4%
  4. 4th 8%
  5. 5th 14%
  6. 6th 12%
  7. 7th 10%
  8. 8th 10%
  9. 9th 9%
  10. 10th 8%
  11. 11th 7%
  12. 12th 6%
  13. 13th 4%
  14. 14th 3%
  15. 15th 2%
  16. 16th 1%
  17. 17th 1%
  18. 18th <1%
  19. 19th <1%
  20. 20th <1%
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd
  23. 23rd
  24. 24th
  25. 25th
  26. 26th
  27. 27th
  28. 28th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.62 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Napa United 3.00 (+1.00) 1st (2.52) 29 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
2 Burlingame SC 3.00 (+1.00) 3rd (2.43) 29 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
3 Livermore Fusion SC 2.67 (+0.67) 2nd (2.49) 25 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
4 El Dorado Hills SC 2.50 (+0.50) 4th (2.38) 23 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
5 Madera United FC 2.29 (+0.29) 8th (1.93) 20 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection

How the results connect

9 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link Alameda Soccer Club Islanders to Burlingame SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
1 even
3 favour them
+0.0 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–4 5–0 1–3 3–2 3–1 1–3 5–0 2–3 7–0 0–1 1–4 6–0 0–9 1–8 2–6 3–2 3–0 0–0 0–5 Alameda Soccer Club… 6th Livermore Fusion SC 3rd Walnut Creek Surf 10th Association FC 17th San Ramon FC 26th San Francisco Elite… 16th North Coast FC BLUE 19th Solano Surf 23rd Cal Magic 20th South Valley United… 15th Santa Cruz United FC 11th Burlingame SC 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 14th 28th Aug 15 Aug 23 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.07 · 13th hardest of 27

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM		 Burlingame SC
2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +12		 Home
Hornet Soccer Field · grass		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
47%		 2–2 1.60 1.93 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
10:00 AM		 South Valley Chivas
22nd · 1-0-4 · GD -4		 Away far trip
Burton Middle School		 ●●○○○ Lean win
65%		 2–1 2.12 1.96 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM		 SF United FC
9th · 4-1-2 · GD +8		 Home
Estuary Park Turf · turf		 ●●○○○ Lean win
58%		 2–1 1.94 1.96 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 Napa United
1st · 8-0-0 · GD +33		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
25%		 1–2 0.96 1.85 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 San Juan South
8th · 4-1-2 · GD +11		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%		 1–1 1.63 1.83 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
11:10 AM		 Cal Magic
20th · 2-0-4 · GD -1		 Away
Wilder Sports Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
60%		 2–1 1.98 1.84 Swing game
Sat May 1
02:00 PM		 North Coast FC BLUE
19th · 2-1-3 · GD -2		 Away far trip
Petaluma Community Sports Fields		 ●●○○○ Lean win
63%		 2–1 2.06 1.86 Swing game
Sun May 2
TBD		 Diablo Valley Futbol Club
28th · 0-0-6 · GD -54		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
100%		 8–0 2.99 1.95 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Napa United 8800 374+33 243.00 WWWWW -1.64 +0.99 91% 2.4
2 Burlingame SC 5500 197+12 153.00 WWWWW -0.22 -0.55 82% 3.1
3 Livermore Fusion SC 6510 413+38 162.67 WWWWW -1.26 +0.33 91% 2.5
4 El Dorado Hills SC 6501 233+20 152.50 WLWWW -0.54 -0.40 79% 3.5
5 Madera United FC 7511 185+13 162.29 WWDWL -0.07 +1.16 11% 8.4
6 Alameda Soccer Club Islanders 5311 176+11 102.00 WDWLW +0.32 -0.07 14% 8.0
7 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 5311 135+8 102.00 DWWLW -0.71 +0.67 3% 11.4
8 San Juan South 7412 176+11 131.86 LWDWW -0.87 +0.41 1% 11.4
9 SF United FC 7412 1810+8 131.86 WWLWW -0.97 +0.04 1% 11.6
10 Walnut Creek Surf 6321 116+5 111.83 DWWDL +0.53 -1.27 8% 7.8
11 Santa Cruz United FC 7403 2018+2 121.71 WWWLL -0.62 -0.59 0% 13.3
12 East County Revolution FC 5221 144+10 81.60 LWDDW +0.13 -1.16 13% 7.5
13 Folsom Lake Surf 7322 215+16 111.57 DDWWL -0.63 +0.38 2% 9.9
14 Reno APEX Soccer Club 7322 187+11 111.57 LDWLW +0.10 +1.22 0% 14.6
15 South Valley United Soccer Club 6303 1211+1 91.50 WLWLL -0.09 +1.04 0% 18.9
16 San Francisco Elite Academy 6222 226+16 81.33 LDDWW -1.18 -0.35 5% 9.0
17 Association FC 7304 1423-9 91.29 WWLWL +0.39 -0.11 0% 18.2
18 Elk Grove Soccer 5203 77+0 61.20 LWLLW +0.02 -0.29 0% 17.2
19 North Coast FC BLUE 6213 1214-2 71.17 LWLLD +0.36 -0.47 0% 17.2
20 Cal Magic 6204 1516-1 61.00 LLLWL +0.63 +0.03 0% 17.9
21 Eastshore Alliance FC 6123 613-7 50.83 DDLWL +1.05 -0.63 0% 19.3
22 South Valley Chivas 5104 711-4 30.60 WLLLL +0.95 -0.25 0% 20.2
23 Solano Surf 6015 819-11 10.17 LLLLD +0.50 +0.78 0% 23.8
24 Santa Clara Sporting 0000 00+0 00.00 — — ——
25 Stanford Strikers 7007 233-31 00.00 LLLLL +0.83 +0.21 0% 25.4
26 San Ramon FC 6006 250-48 00.00 LLLLL +1.43 -1.23 0% 24.5
27 West Coast Soccer -RL 6006 048-48 00.00 LLLLL +1.55 -0.97 0% 25.7
28 Diablo Valley Futbol Club 6006 155-54 00.00 LLLLL +1.19 -0.48 0% 25.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.