TableChase Clubs

Diablo Valley Futbol Club

ECNL Regional League Girls · NorCal GU15 · 28 teams · Diablo Valley Futbol Club (all teams)

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28th
0-0-6 record · 6 played
0.00 points per game
-54 goal diff · 1–55
LLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 25.9
+1.19 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:00 PM

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Diablo Valley Futbol Club
28th · 0.00 PPG
vs

Marathon/Tesoro Fields, field 2 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–7 (expected goals 0.7 for, 7.4 against · 0.01 expected points)

Season so farDiablo Valley Futbol ClubEast County Revolution FC
Position28th12th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-62-2-1
Points per game0.001.60
Goals for / game0.22.8
Goals against / game9.20.8
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless52
Form (recent first)L L L L LW D D W L
Biggest win—7–1 at Santa Cruz United FC
Worst loss0–12 at San Francisco Elite Academy0–1 at San Juan South
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-5.43+1.33
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.19+0.13

Common opponents: Madera United FC — we 0–10; they 1–1.

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    East County Revolution FC concede only 0.8/game with 1 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–9 at North Coast FC BLUE, 0–9 vs Folsom Lake Surf, 0–10 at Madera United FC, 0–9 vs Napa United, 0–12 at San Francisco Elite Academy.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 0%; a draw (1%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    West Coast Soccer -RL sit 27th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above West Coast Soccer -RL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the East County Revolution FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Diablo Valley Futbol Club – East County Revolution FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG
28th— holds 28th— holds 28th— holds
Win
0.43 PPG
23rd▲ up 5 23rd▲ up 5 26th▲ up 2
Draw
0.14 PPG
24th▲ up 4 24th▲ up 4 26th▲ up 2
Loss
0.00 PPG
28th— holds 28th— holds 28th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–7 loss we stay 28th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
25.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd <1%
  23. 23rd 7%
  24. 24th 13%
  25. 25th 19%
  26. 26th 25%
  27. 27th 21%
  28. 28th 15%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 1.88 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Napa United 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.52) 48 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Burlingame SC 3.00 (+3.00) 3rd (2.43) 48 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Livermore Fusion SC 2.67 (+2.67) 2nd (2.49) 43 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 El Dorado Hills SC 2.50 (+2.50) 4th (2.38) 40 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Madera United FC 2.29 (+2.29) 8th (1.93) 37 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Alameda Soccer Club Islanders 2.00 (+2.00) 7th (1.95) 32 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 2.00 (+2.00) 11th (1.70) 32 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
8 San Juan South 1.86 (+1.86) 12th (1.69) 30 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
9 SF United FC 1.86 (+1.86) 13th (1.69) 30 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
10 Walnut Creek Surf 1.83 (+1.83) 6th (1.96) 30 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
11 Santa Cruz United FC 1.71 (+1.71) 14th (1.56) 28 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
12 East County Revolution FC 1.60 (+1.60) 5th (1.97) 26 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
13 Folsom Lake Surf 1.57 (+1.57) 10th (1.79) 26 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
14 Reno APEX Soccer Club 1.57 (+1.57) 15th (1.47) 26 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
15 South Valley United Soccer Club 1.50 (+1.50) 20th (1.15) 24 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
16 San Francisco Elite Academy 1.33 (+1.33) 9th (1.86) 22 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
17 Association FC 1.29 (+1.29) 19th (1.20) 21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
18 Elk Grove Soccer 1.20 (+1.20) 16th (1.28) 20 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
19 North Coast FC BLUE 1.17 (+1.17) 17th (1.28) 19 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
20 Cal Magic 1.00 (+1.00) 18th (1.23) 16 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
21 Eastshore Alliance FC 0.83 (+0.83) 21st (1.11) 14 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
22 South Valley Chivas 0.60 (+0.60) 22nd (1.01) 10 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
23 Solano Surf 0.17 (+0.17) 23rd (0.42) A point next game
24 Santa Clara Sporting 0.00 (+0.00) 28th (0.00) Already ahead
25 Stanford Strikers 0.00 (+0.00) 25th (0.21) Already ahead
26 San Ramon FC 0.00 (+0.00) 24th (0.35) Already ahead
27 West Coast Soccer -RL 0.00 (+0.00) 26th (0.19) Already ahead

How the results connect

7 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Diablo Valley Futbol Club to East County Revolution FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
7 favour them
-8.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–10 1–1 0–9 4–0 0–0 1–6 2–2 0–9 1–0 1–0 1–0 0–9 1–2 1–1 1–6 Diablo Valley Futbo… 28th Madera United FC 5th Napa United 1st SF United FC 9th North Coast FC BLUE 19th Folsom Lake Surf 13th Eastshore Alliance … 21st San Juan South 8th Solano Surf 23rd East County Revolut… 12th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 14th 28th Aug 15 Aug 23 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.48 · 20th hardest of 27

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 11
10:00 AM
no score posted
El Dorado Hills SC
4th · 5-0-1 · GD +20
Away far trip
Promontory Community Park
●●●●● Very tough
0%
0–9 0.00 0.00 Upside
Sun Oct 25
03:00 PM
East County Revolution FC
12th · 2-2-1 · GD +10
Home
Marathon/Tesoro Fields
●●●●● Very tough
0%
0–7 0.01 0.00 Upside
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM
Eastshore Alliance FC
21st · 1-2-3 · GD -7
Home
Marathon/Tesoro Fields
●●●●● Very tough
4%
1–4 0.19 0.02 Upside
Sun Nov 8
03:00 PM
South Valley Chivas
22nd · 1-0-4 · GD -4
Home
Marathon/Tesoro Fields
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–4 0.13 0.03 Upside
Sun Mar 14
03:00 PM
Walnut Creek Surf
10th · 3-2-1 · GD +5
Home
Marathon/Tesoro Fields
●●●●● Very tough
1%
0–5 0.04 0.03 Upside
Sun Apr 4
02:00 PM
San Ramon FC
26th · 0-0-6 · GD -48
Away
Rancho San Ramon Community Park
●●●●○ Tough
27%
2–3 0.95 0.11 Upside
Sat Apr 10
11:00 AM
West Coast Soccer -RL
27th · 0-0-6 · GD -48
Home
Marathon/Tesoro Fields
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
2–2 1.55 0.22 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
01:00 PM
Santa Cruz United FC
11th · 4-0-3 · GD +2
Away far trip
New Brighton Middle School
●●●●● Very tough
1%
1–7 0.03 0.21 Upside
Sat Apr 24
11:00 AM
Elk Grove Soccer
18th · 2-0-3 · GD +0
Home
Marathon/Tesoro Fields
●●●●● Very tough
2%
0–4 0.11 0.20 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD
Alameda Soccer Club Islanders
6th · 3-1-1 · GD +11
Away
●●●●● Very tough
0%
0–8 0.01 0.19 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Napa United 8800 374+33 243.00 WWWWW -1.64 +0.99 92% 2.4
2 Burlingame SC 5500 197+12 153.00 WWWWW -0.22 -0.55 83% 3.0
3 Livermore Fusion SC 6510 413+38 162.67 WWWWW -1.26 +0.33 91% 2.5
4 El Dorado Hills SC 6501 233+20 152.50 WLWWW -0.54 -0.40 80% 3.4
5 Madera United FC 7511 185+13 162.29 WWDWL -0.07 +1.16 9% 8.3
6 Alameda Soccer Club Islanders 5311 176+11 102.00 WDWLW +0.32 -0.07 12% 8.1
7 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 5311 135+8 102.00 DWWLW -0.71 +0.67 3% 11.4
8 San Juan South 7412 176+11 131.86 LWDWW -0.87 +0.41 1% 11.4
9 SF United FC 7412 1810+8 131.86 WWLWW -0.97 +0.04 1% 11.5
10 Walnut Creek Surf 6321 116+5 111.83 DWWDL +0.53 -1.27 8% 7.9
11 Santa Cruz United FC 7403 2018+2 121.71 WWWLL -0.62 -0.59 0% 13.3
12 East County Revolution FC 5221 144+10 81.60 LWDDW +0.13 -1.16 12% 7.5
13 Folsom Lake Surf 7322 215+16 111.57 DDWWL -0.63 +0.38 2% 10.1
14 Reno APEX Soccer Club 7322 187+11 111.57 LDWLW +0.10 +1.22 0% 14.4
15 South Valley United Soccer Club 6303 1211+1 91.50 WLWLL -0.09 +1.04 0% 18.9
16 San Francisco Elite Academy 6222 226+16 81.33 LDDWW -1.18 -0.35 4% 9.1
17 Association FC 7304 1423-9 91.29 WWLWL +0.39 -0.11 0% 18.1
18 Elk Grove Soccer 5203 77+0 61.20 LWLLW +0.02 -0.29 0% 17.2
19 North Coast FC BLUE 6213 1214-2 71.17 LWLLD +0.36 -0.47 0% 17.2
20 Cal Magic 6204 1516-1 61.00 LLLWL +0.63 +0.03 0% 17.8
21 Eastshore Alliance FC 6123 613-7 50.83 DDLWL +1.05 -0.63 0% 19.4
22 South Valley Chivas 5104 711-4 30.60 WLLLL +0.95 -0.25 0% 20.2
23 Solano Surf 6015 819-11 10.17 LLLLD +0.50 +0.78 0% 23.8
24 Santa Clara Sporting 0000 00+0 00.00 — — ——
25 Stanford Strikers 7007 233-31 00.00 LLLLL +0.83 +0.21 0% 25.5
26 San Ramon FC 6006 250-48 00.00 LLLLL +1.43 -1.23 0% 24.5
27 West Coast Soccer -RL 6006 048-48 00.00 LLLLL +1.55 -0.97 0% 25.8
28 Diablo Valley Futbol Club 6006 155-54 00.00 LLLLL +1.19 -0.48 0% 25.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.