North Coast FC BLUE
ECNL Regional League Girls · NorCal GU15 · 28 teams · North Coast Futbol Club (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:50 AM
Beach Chalet Athletic Fields, Field 3 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.5 for, 2.4 against · 0.88 expected points)
| Season so far | North Coast FC BLUE | SF United FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 19th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-1-3 | 4-1-2 |
| Points per game | 1.17 | 1.86 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| Goals against / game | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | D L L W L | W W L W W |
| Biggest win | 9–0 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club | 6–1 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club |
| Worst loss | 0–5 at El Dorado Hills SC | 0–3 vs El Dorado Hills SC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.19 | +0.55 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.36 | -0.97 |
Common opponents: Diablo Valley Futbol Club — we 9–0; they 6–1. El Dorado Hills SC — we 0–5; they 0–3.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–5 at El Dorado Hills SC, 0–5 at Livermore Fusion SC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 23%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 11:50 AM at Beach Chalet Athletic Fields.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Elk Grove Soccer sit 18th on 1.20 PPG; we are on 1.17.A point moves us above Elk Grove Soccer on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the SF United FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (North Coast FC BLUE – SF United FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.00 PPG |
20th▼ down 1 | 21st▼ down 2 | 21st▼ down 2 |
| Win 1.43 PPG |
16th▲ up 3 | 15th▲ up 4 | 19th— holds |
| Draw 1.14 PPG |
19th— holds | 17th▲ up 2 | 19th— holds |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
20th▼ down 1 | 21st▼ down 2 | 21st▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 20th even if every rival loses, and as low as 21st if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th <1%
- 7th <1%
- 8th <1%
- 9th 1%
- 10th 1%
- 11th 2%
- 12th 3%
- 13th 4%
- 14th 7%
- 15th 9%
- 16th 11%
- 17th 15%
- 18th 12%
- 19th 11%
- 20th 11%
- 21st 9%
- 22nd 5%
- 23rd <1%
- 24th
- 25th
- 26th
- 27th
- 28th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.27 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Napa United | 3.00 (+1.83) | 1st (2.52) | 38 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Burlingame SC | 3.00 (+1.83) | 3rd (2.43) | 38 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Livermore Fusion SC | 2.67 (+1.50) | 2nd (2.49) | 34 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | El Dorado Hills SC | 2.50 (+1.33) | 4th (2.38) | 31 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Madera United FC | 2.29 (+1.12) | 8th (1.93) | 28 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 6 | Alameda Soccer Club Islanders | 2.00 (+0.83) | 7th (1.95) | 23 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 7 | Los Gatos United Soccer Club | 2.00 (+0.83) | 11th (1.70) | 23 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 8 | San Juan South | 1.86 (+0.69) | 12th (1.69) | 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 9 | SF United FC | 1.86 (+0.69) | 13th (1.69) | 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 10 | Walnut Creek Surf | 1.83 (+0.66) | 6th (1.96) | 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 11 | Santa Cruz United FC | 1.71 (+0.54) | 14th (1.56) | 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 12 | East County Revolution FC | 1.60 (+0.43) | 5th (1.97) | 17 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 13 | Folsom Lake Surf | 1.57 (+0.40) | 10th (1.79) | 17 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 14 | Reno APEX Soccer Club | 1.57 (+0.40) | 15th (1.47) | 17 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 15 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 1.50 (+0.33) | 20th (1.15) | 16 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection |
| 16 | San Francisco Elite Academy | 1.33 (+0.16) | 9th (1.86) | A point next game |
| 17 | Association FC | 1.29 (+0.12) | 19th (1.20) | A point next game |
| 18 | Elk Grove Soccer | 1.20 (+0.03) | 16th (1.28) | A point next game |
How the results connect
7 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link North Coast FC BLUE to SF United FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.47 · 19th hardest of 27
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 11:50 AM |
SF United FC 9th · 4-1-2 · GD +8 |
Away far trip
Beach Chalet Athletic Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.88 | 1.13 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 02:00 PM |
West Coast Soccer -RL 27th · 0-0-6 · GD -48 |
Home Petaluma Community Sports Fields |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
5–0 | 2.90 | 1.35 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 12:30 PM |
Eastshore Alliance FC 21st · 1-2-3 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
El Cerrito High School · turf? |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
1–1 | 1.47 | 1.36 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 03:45 PM |
Folsom Lake Surf 13th · 3-2-2 · GD +16 |
Away far trip
Econome Family Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–2 | 0.50 | 1.27 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7th · 3-1-1 · GD +8 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.76 | 1.23 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
South Valley United Soccer Club 15th · 3-0-3 · GD +1 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
1–1 | 1.44 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 12:00 PM |
San Ramon FC 26th · 0-0-6 · GD -48 |
Away far trip
San Ramon Sports Park - Tiffany Roberts |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
4–1 | 2.77 | 1.36 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 02:00 PM |
Alameda Soccer Club Islanders 6th · 3-1-1 · GD +11 |
Home Petaluma Community Sports Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.77 | 1.32 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
San Francisco Elite Academy 16th · 2-2-2 · GD +16 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.71 | 1.28 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Napa United | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 4 | +33 | 24 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.64 | +0.99 | 91% | 2.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 vs Solano Surf · Sun Mar 14 vs Livermore Fusion SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Burlingame SC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.22 | -0.55 | 82% | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Oct 18 vs South Valley Chivas · Sun Oct 25 at Alameda Soccer Club Islanders See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Livermore Fusion SC | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 41 | 3 | +38 | 16 | 2.67 | WWWWW | -1.26 | +0.33 | 91% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Mar 14 at Napa United See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | El Dorado Hills SC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 3 | +20 | 15 | 2.50 | WLWWW | -0.54 | -0.40 | 80% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at South Valley Chivas · Sun Nov 1 vs Solano Surf · Sun Nov 8 vs Madera United FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Madera United FC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 16 | 2.29 | WWDWL | -0.07 | +1.16 | 10% | 8.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Santa Cruz United FC · Sun Nov 8 at El Dorado Hills SC · Sun Mar 14 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Alameda Soccer Club Islanders | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 10 | 2.00 | WDWLW | +0.32 | -0.07 | 15% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Burlingame SC · Sun Nov 1 at South Valley Chivas · Sun Nov 8 vs SF United FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Los Gatos United Soccer Club | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 10 | 2.00 | DWWLW | -0.71 | +0.67 | 3% | 11.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Solano Surf · Sun Nov 1 at SF United FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Burlingame SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | San Juan South | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 13 | 1.86 | LWDWW | -0.87 | +0.41 | 1% | 11.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs West Coast Soccer -RL · Sun Nov 8 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sun Mar 14 at Elk Grove Soccer See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | SF United FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 13 | 1.86 | WWLWW | -0.97 | +0.04 | 1% | 11.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs North Coast FC BLUE · Sun Nov 1 vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Alameda Soccer Club Islanders See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Walnut Creek Surf | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 11 | 1.83 | DWWDL | +0.53 | -1.27 | 10% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Association FC · Sun Nov 1 at San Ramon FC · Sun Mar 14 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Santa Cruz United FC | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 12 | 1.71 | WWWLL | -0.62 | -0.59 | 0% | 13.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Madera United FC · Sun Nov 1 at Stanford Strikers · Sun Nov 8 at South Valley United Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | East County Revolution FC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 8 | 1.60 | LWDDW | +0.13 | -1.16 | 10% | 7.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sun Nov 1 vs South Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at West Coast Soccer -RL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Folsom Lake Surf | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 5 | +16 | 11 | 1.57 | DDWWL | -0.63 | +0.38 | 2% | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at South Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Nov 8 vs Livermore Fusion SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Reno APEX Soccer Club | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 11 | 1.57 | LDWLW | +0.10 | +1.22 | 0% | 14.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Napa United · Sun Nov 1 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sun Nov 8 vs San Juan South See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 9 | 1.50 | WLWLL | -0.09 | +1.04 | 0% | 18.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 1 at East County Revolution FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Cruz United FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | San Francisco Elite Academy | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 6 | +16 | 8 | 1.33 | LDDWW | -1.18 | -0.35 | 4% | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Nov 1 at Association FC · Sat Nov 7 at Cal Magic See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Association FC | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 9 | 1.29 | WWLWL | +0.39 | -0.11 | 0% | 18.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Mar 14 at Stanford Strikers See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Elk Grove Soccer | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 6 | 1.20 | LWLLW | +0.02 | -0.29 | 0% | 17.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at Burlingame SC · Sun Oct 25 at San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Folsom Lake Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | North Coast FC BLUE | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 7 | 1.17 | LWLLD | +0.36 | -0.47 | 0% | 17.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at SF United FC · Sun Nov 1 vs West Coast Soccer -RL · Sun Nov 8 at Eastshore Alliance FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 20 | Cal Magic | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 6 | 1.00 | LLLWL | +0.63 | +0.03 | 0% | 17.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 8 vs Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Apr 4 at Walnut Creek Surf See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 21 | Eastshore Alliance FC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 5 | 0.83 | DDLWL | +1.05 | -0.63 | 0% | 19.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Ramon FC · Sun Nov 1 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sun Nov 8 vs North Coast FC BLUE See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 22 | South Valley Chivas | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3 | 0.60 | WLLLL | +0.95 | -0.25 | 0% | 20.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 at Burlingame SC · Sun Oct 25 vs El Dorado Hills SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Alameda Soccer Club Islanders See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 23 | Solano Surf | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 1 | 0.17 | LLLLD | +0.50 | +0.78 | 0% | 23.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at El Dorado Hills SC · Sat Nov 7 at Napa United See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 24 | Santa Clara Sporting | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. |
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| 25 | Stanford Strikers | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 33 | -31 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.83 | +0.21 | 0% | 25.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Santa Cruz United FC · Sun Nov 8 vs San Ramon FC · Sun Mar 14 vs Association FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 26 | San Ramon FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 50 | -48 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.43 | -1.23 | 0% | 24.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Eastshore Alliance FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sun Nov 8 at Stanford Strikers See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 27 | West Coast Soccer -RL | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 48 | -48 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.55 | -0.97 | 0% | 25.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at San Juan South · Sun Nov 1 at North Coast FC BLUE · Sun Nov 8 vs East County Revolution FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 28 | Diablo Valley Futbol Club | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 55 | -54 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.19 | -0.48 | 0% | 25.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs East County Revolution FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Eastshore Alliance FC · Sun Nov 8 vs South Valley Chivas See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.