TableChase Clubs

SF United FC

ECNL Regional League Girls · NorCal GU15 · 28 teams · SF United FC (all teams)

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9th
4-1-2 record · 7 played
1.86 points per game
+8 goal diff · 18–10
WWLWWlast 5
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.6
-0.97 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:50 AM

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SF United FC
9th · 1.86 PPG
vs
North Coast FC BLUE
19th · 1.17 PPG

Beach Chalet Athletic Fields, Field 3 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.4 for, 1.5 against · 1.93 expected points)

Season so farSF United FCNorth Coast FC BLUE
Position9th19th
Record (W-D-L)4-1-22-1-3
Points per game1.861.17
Goals for / game2.62.0
Goals against / game1.42.3
Clean sheets22
Held scoreless22
Form (recent first)W W L W WD L L W L
Biggest win6–1 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club9–0 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club
Worst loss0–3 vs El Dorado Hills SC0–5 at El Dorado Hills SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.55-0.19
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.97+0.36

Common opponents: Diablo Valley Futbol Club — we 6–1; they 9–0. El Dorado Hills SC — we 0–3; they 0–5.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at Walnut Creek Surf, 0–3 vs El Dorado Hills SC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 58% / draw 19% / loss 23%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • What a win does
    San Juan South sit 8th on 1.86 PPG; we are on 1.86.

    A point moves us above San Juan South on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the North Coast FC BLUE game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SF United FC – North Coast FC BLUE) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.00 PPG		 7th▲ up 2 8th▲ up 1 9th— holds
Win
2.00 PPG		 7th▲ up 2 8th▲ up 1 9th— holds
Draw
1.75 PPG		 10th▼ down 1 12th▼ down 3 14th▼ down 5
Loss
1.63 PPG		 11th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 3 15th▼ down 6

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
99% below the top 4
11.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 2%
  6. 6th 4%
  7. 7th 6%
  8. 8th 6%
  9. 9th 8%
  10. 10th 9%
  11. 11th 11%
  12. 12th 12%
  13. 13th 11%
  14. 14th 10%
  15. 15th 7%
  16. 16th 5%
  17. 17th 4%
  18. 18th 2%
  19. 19th 1%
  20. 20th <1%
  21. 21st <1%
  22. 22nd
  23. 23rd
  24. 24th
  25. 25th
  26. 26th
  27. 27th
  28. 28th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.43 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Napa United 3.00 (+1.14) 1st (2.52) 29 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Burlingame SC 3.00 (+1.14) 3rd (2.43) 29 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Livermore Fusion SC 2.67 (+0.81) 2nd (2.49) 25 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 El Dorado Hills SC 2.50 (+0.64) 4th (2.38) 22 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
5 Madera United FC 2.29 (+0.43) 8th (1.93) 20 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
6 Alameda Soccer Club Islanders 2.00 (+0.14) 7th (1.95) Win next game
7 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 2.00 (+0.14) 11th (1.70) Win next game
8 San Juan South 1.86 (+0.00) 12th (1.69) A point next game

How the results connect

7 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link SF United FC to North Coast FC BLUE through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
1 even
3 favour them
+0.0 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–3 5–0 6–1 0–9 0–2 3–1 1–1 3–0 1–5 0–1 2–2 0–3 1–1 6–2 3–2 SF United FC 9th El Dorado Hills SC 4th Diablo Valley Futbo… 28th Walnut Creek Surf 10th Stanford Strikers 25th Eastshore Alliance … 21st Association FC 17th Solano Surf 23rd San Juan South 8th North Coast FC BLUE 19th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 14th 28th Aug 15 Aug 23 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.04 · 11th hardest of 27

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
11:50 AM		 North Coast FC BLUE
19th · 2-1-3 · GD -2		 Home
Beach Chalet Athletic Fields		 ●●○○○ Lean win
58%		 2–1 1.93 1.87 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
11:40 AM		 Los Gatos United Soccer Club
7th · 3-1-1 · GD +8		 Home
Beach Chalet Athletic Fields		 ●●●●○ Tough
38%		 1–1 1.37 1.81 Upside
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM		 Alameda Soccer Club Islanders
6th · 3-1-1 · GD +11		 Away far trip
Estuary Park Turf · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
23%		 1–2 0.87 1.72 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 San Francisco Elite Academy
16th · 2-2-2 · GD +16		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–2 0.81 1.63 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Burlingame SC
2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +12		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
32%		 1–2 1.17 1.60 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD		 West Coast Soccer -RL
27th · 0-0-6 · GD -48		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
96%		 5–0 2.91 1.70 Bank it
Sun May 2
11:10 AM		 Cal Magic
20th · 2-0-4 · GD -1		 Away far trip
Wilder Sports Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 2–2 1.54 1.69 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Napa United 8800 374+33 243.00 WWWWW -1.64 +0.99 91% 2.4
2 Burlingame SC 5500 197+12 153.00 WWWWW -0.22 -0.55 82% 3.1
3 Livermore Fusion SC 6510 413+38 162.67 WWWWW -1.26 +0.33 91% 2.5
4 El Dorado Hills SC 6501 233+20 152.50 WLWWW -0.54 -0.40 79% 3.5
5 Madera United FC 7511 185+13 162.29 WWDWL -0.07 +1.16 11% 8.4
6 Alameda Soccer Club Islanders 5311 176+11 102.00 WDWLW +0.32 -0.07 14% 8.0
7 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 5311 135+8 102.00 DWWLW -0.71 +0.67 3% 11.4
8 San Juan South 7412 176+11 131.86 LWDWW -0.87 +0.41 1% 11.4
9 SF United FC 7412 1810+8 131.86 WWLWW -0.97 +0.04 1% 11.6
10 Walnut Creek Surf 6321 116+5 111.83 DWWDL +0.53 -1.27 8% 7.8
11 Santa Cruz United FC 7403 2018+2 121.71 WWWLL -0.62 -0.59 0% 13.3
12 East County Revolution FC 5221 144+10 81.60 LWDDW +0.13 -1.16 13% 7.5
13 Folsom Lake Surf 7322 215+16 111.57 DDWWL -0.63 +0.38 2% 9.9
14 Reno APEX Soccer Club 7322 187+11 111.57 LDWLW +0.10 +1.22 0% 14.6
15 South Valley United Soccer Club 6303 1211+1 91.50 WLWLL -0.09 +1.04 0% 18.9
16 San Francisco Elite Academy 6222 226+16 81.33 LDDWW -1.18 -0.35 5% 9.0
17 Association FC 7304 1423-9 91.29 WWLWL +0.39 -0.11 0% 18.2
18 Elk Grove Soccer 5203 77+0 61.20 LWLLW +0.02 -0.29 0% 17.2
19 North Coast FC BLUE 6213 1214-2 71.17 LWLLD +0.36 -0.47 0% 17.2
20 Cal Magic 6204 1516-1 61.00 LLLWL +0.63 +0.03 0% 17.9
21 Eastshore Alliance FC 6123 613-7 50.83 DDLWL +1.05 -0.63 0% 19.3
22 South Valley Chivas 5104 711-4 30.60 WLLLL +0.95 -0.25 0% 20.2
23 Solano Surf 6015 819-11 10.17 LLLLD +0.50 +0.78 0% 23.8
24 Santa Clara Sporting 0000 00+0 00.00 — — ——
25 Stanford Strikers 7007 233-31 00.00 LLLLL +0.83 +0.21 0% 25.4
26 San Ramon FC 6006 250-48 00.00 LLLLL +1.43 -1.23 0% 24.5
27 West Coast Soccer -RL 6006 048-48 00.00 LLLLL +1.55 -0.97 0% 25.7
28 Diablo Valley Futbol Club 6006 155-54 00.00 LLLLL +1.19 -0.48 0% 25.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.