TableChase Clubs

East County Revolution FC

ECNL Regional League Girls · NorCal GU15 · 28 teams · Revolution FC (all teams)

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12th
2-2-1 record · 5 played
1.60 points per game
+10 goal diff · 14–4
LWDDWlast 5
12% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.5
+0.13 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:00 PM

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East County Revolution FC
12th · 1.60 PPG
at
Diablo Valley Futbol Club
28th · 0.00 PPG

Marathon/Tesoro Fields, field 2 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 7–0 (expected goals 7.4 for, 0.7 against · 2.98 expected points)

Season so farEast County Revolution FCDiablo Valley Futbol Club
Position12th28th
Record (W-D-L)2-2-10-0-6
Points per game1.600.00
Goals for / game2.80.2
Goals against / game0.89.2
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless25
Form (recent first)W D D W LL L L L L
Biggest win7–1 at Santa Cruz United FC—
Worst loss0–1 at San Juan South0–12 at San Francisco Elite Academy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.33-5.43
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.13+1.19

Common opponents: Madera United FC — we 1–1; they 0–10.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Diablo Valley Futbol Club average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 2.3); blanked in 5 of 6.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Diablo Valley Futbol Club concede 9.2/game; worst result 0–12 at San Francisco Elite Academy.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 at San Juan South, 0–0 vs Eastshore Alliance FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 99% chance; likely score 7–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Diablo Valley Futbol Club have lost 6 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 03:00 PM at Marathon/Tesoro Fields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Santa Cruz United FC sit 11th on 1.71 PPG; we are on 1.60.

    A point moves us above Santa Cruz United FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Diablo Valley Futbol Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (East County Revolution FC – Diablo Valley Futbol Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.83 PPG		 10th▲ up 2 10th▲ up 2 12th— holds
Win
1.83 PPG		 10th▲ up 2 11th▲ up 1 12th— holds
Draw
1.50 PPG		 14th▼ down 2 13th▼ down 1 16th▼ down 4
Loss
1.33 PPG		 16th▼ down 4 15th▼ down 3 19th▼ down 7

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 7–0 win we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
12% top 4
88% below the top 4
7.5 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 4%
  4. 4th 7%
  5. 5th 15%
  6. 6th 17%
  7. 7th 13%
  8. 8th 11%
  9. 9th 9%
  10. 10th 7%
  11. 11th 6%
  12. 12th 3%
  13. 13th 3%
  14. 14th 2%
  15. 15th 1%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th <1%
  18. 18th <1%
  19. 19th <1%
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd
  23. 23rd
  24. 24th
  25. 25th
  26. 26th
  27. 27th
  28. 28th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Napa United 3.00 (+1.40) 1st (2.52) 34 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Burlingame SC 3.00 (+1.40) 3rd (2.43) 34 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
3 Livermore Fusion SC 2.67 (+1.07) 2nd (2.49) 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
4 El Dorado Hills SC 2.50 (+0.90) 4th (2.38) 27 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
5 Madera United FC 2.29 (+0.69) 8th (1.93) 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
6 Alameda Soccer Club Islanders 2.00 (+0.40) 7th (1.95) 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
7 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 2.00 (+0.40) 11th (1.70) 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
8 San Juan South 1.86 (+0.26) 12th (1.69) 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
9 SF United FC 1.86 (+0.26) 13th (1.69) 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
10 Walnut Creek Surf 1.83 (+0.23) 6th (1.96) A point next game
11 Santa Cruz United FC 1.71 (+0.11) 14th (1.56) A point next game

How the results connect

7 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link East County Revolution FC to Diablo Valley Futbol Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us
0 favour them
+8.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 10–0 0–0 2–2 6–1 0–4 9–0 0–1 0–1 9–0 0–1 2–1 9–0 6–1 1–1 East County Revolut… 12th Madera United FC 5th Eastshore Alliance … 21st San Juan South 8th Solano Surf 23rd SF United FC 9th Napa United 1st North Coast FC BLUE 19th Folsom Lake Surf 13th Diablo Valley Futbo… 28th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 14th 28th Aug 15 Aug 23 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -1.16 · 25th hardest of 27

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
03:00 PM		 Diablo Valley Futbol Club
28th · 0-0-6 · GD -54		 Away
Marathon/Tesoro Fields		 ●○○○○ Favorable
99%		 7–0 2.98 1.83 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM		 South Valley United Soccer Club
15th · 3-0-3 · GD +1		 Home
Sunset Sports Complex (SSC)		 ●●○○○ Lean win
69%		 2–1 2.22 1.89 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
02:45 PM		 West Coast Soccer -RL
27th · 0-0-6 · GD -48		 Away
Cayetano Park 		●○○○○ Favorable
98%		 6–0 2.97 2.02 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
12:00 PM		 South Valley Chivas
22nd · 1-0-4 · GD -4		 Home
Sunset Sports Complex (SSC)		 ●●○○○ Lean win
73%		 2–1 2.35 2.06 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
12:00 PM		 Los Gatos United Soccer Club
7th · 3-1-1 · GD +8		 Home
Sunset Sports Complex (SSC)		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
52%		 1–1 1.78 2.03 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
02:00 PM		 San Ramon FC
26th · 0-0-6 · GD -48		 Away
Sunrise Ridge Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
98%		 6–0 2.96 2.11 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
12:00 PM		 Folsom Lake Surf
13th · 3-2-2 · GD +16		 Home
Sunset Sports Complex (SSC)		 ●●●●○ Tough
40%		 1–1 1.42 2.06 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 PM		 Napa United
1st · 8-0-0 · GD +33		 Home
Sunset Sports Complex (SSC)		 ●●●●○ Tough
26%		 1–2 1.01 1.98 Upside
Sun May 2
02:00 PM		 Elk Grove Soccer
18th · 2-0-3 · GD +0		 Away far trip
Franklin High School Football Field · turf?		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
58%		 2–1 1.94 1.97 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Napa United 8800 374+33 243.00 WWWWW -1.64 +0.99 90% 2.5
2 Burlingame SC 5500 197+12 153.00 WWWWW -0.22 -0.55 82% 3.1
3 Livermore Fusion SC 6510 413+38 162.67 WWWWW -1.26 +0.33 90% 2.5
4 El Dorado Hills SC 6501 233+20 152.50 WLWWW -0.54 -0.40 80% 3.4
5 Madera United FC 7511 185+13 162.29 WWDWL -0.07 +1.16 9% 8.3
6 Alameda Soccer Club Islanders 5311 176+11 102.00 WDWLW +0.32 -0.07 14% 8.0
7 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 5311 135+8 102.00 DWWLW -0.71 +0.67 3% 11.4
8 San Juan South 7412 176+11 131.86 LWDWW -0.87 +0.41 1% 11.4
9 SF United FC 7412 1810+8 131.86 WWLWW -0.97 +0.04 1% 11.7
10 Walnut Creek Surf 6321 116+5 111.83 DWWDL +0.53 -1.27 9% 7.8
11 Santa Cruz United FC 7403 2018+2 121.71 WWWLL -0.62 -0.59 0% 13.2
12 East County Revolution FC 5221 144+10 81.60 LWDDW +0.13 -1.16 12% 7.5
13 Folsom Lake Surf 7322 215+16 111.57 DDWWL -0.63 +0.38 3% 9.9
14 Reno APEX Soccer Club 7322 187+11 111.57 LDWLW +0.10 +1.22 0% 14.6
15 South Valley United Soccer Club 6303 1211+1 91.50 WLWLL -0.09 +1.04 0% 18.7
16 San Francisco Elite Academy 6222 226+16 81.33 LDDWW -1.18 -0.35 4% 9.0
17 Association FC 7304 1423-9 91.29 WWLWL +0.39 -0.11 0% 18.2
18 Elk Grove Soccer 5203 77+0 61.20 LWLLW +0.02 -0.29 0% 17.2
19 North Coast FC BLUE 6213 1214-2 71.17 LWLLD +0.36 -0.47 0% 17.3
20 Cal Magic 6204 1516-1 61.00 LLLWL +0.63 +0.03 0% 17.6
21 Eastshore Alliance FC 6123 613-7 50.83 DDLWL +1.05 -0.63 0% 19.3
22 South Valley Chivas 5104 711-4 30.60 WLLLL +0.95 -0.25 0% 20.3
23 Solano Surf 6015 819-11 10.17 LLLLD +0.50 +0.78 0% 23.9
24 Santa Clara Sporting 0000 00+0 00.00 — — ——
25 Stanford Strikers 7007 233-31 00.00 LLLLL +0.83 +0.21 0% 25.4
26 San Ramon FC 6006 250-48 00.00 LLLLL +1.43 -1.23 0% 24.5
27 West Coast Soccer -RL 6006 048-48 00.00 LLLLL +1.55 -0.97 0% 25.7
28 Diablo Valley Futbol Club 6006 155-54 00.00 LLLLL +1.19 -0.48 0% 25.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.