Madera United FC
ECNL Regional League Girls · NorCal GU15 · 28 teams · Madera United Futbol Club (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM
Madera South Highschool, Field 1 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.9 for, 1.3 against · 2.27 expected points)
| Season so far | Madera United FC | Santa Cruz United FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 11th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-1-1 | 4-0-3 |
| Points per game | 2.29 | 1.71 |
| Goals for / game | 2.6 | 2.9 |
| Goals against / game | 0.7 | 2.6 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L W D W W | L L W W W |
| Biggest win | 10–0 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club | 8–1 vs San Ramon FC |
| Worst loss | 1–3 at Elk Grove Soccer | 1–7 vs East County Revolution FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.17 | -0.08 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.07 | -0.62 |
Common opponents: East County Revolution FC — we 1–1; they 1–7.
Game plan
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 71% chance; likely score 2–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Santa Cruz United FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Madera United FC – Santa Cruz United FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.38 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Win 2.38 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Draw 2.13 PPG |
5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
5th— holds | 7th▼ down 2 | 7th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 3%
- 4th 6%
- 5th 10%
- 6th 10%
- 7th 10%
- 8th 12%
- 9th 13%
- 10th 9%
- 11th 8%
- 12th 7%
- 13th 5%
- 14th 2%
- 15th 2%
- 16th 1%
- 17th <1%
- 18th <1%
- 19th <1%
- 20th
- 21st
- 22nd
- 23rd
- 24th
- 25th
- 26th
- 27th
- 28th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.62 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Napa United | 3.00 (+0.71) | 1st (2.52) | 23 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 2 | Burlingame SC | 3.00 (+0.71) | 3rd (2.43) | 23 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 3 | Livermore Fusion SC | 2.67 (+0.38) | 2nd (2.49) | 19 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 4 | El Dorado Hills SC | 2.50 (+0.21) | 4th (2.38) | 17 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
How the results connect
7 chains · 12 teams
Paths of results that link Madera United FC to Santa Cruz United FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +1.16 · 2nd hardest of 27
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
Santa Cruz United FC 11th · 4-0-3 · GD +2 |
Home Madera South Highschool |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–1 | 2.27 | 2.28 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 11:30 AM |
El Dorado Hills SC 4th · 5-0-1 · GD +20 |
Away far trip
Promontory Community Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–1 | 0.92 | 2.13 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7th · 3-1-1 · GD +8 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 42% |
1–1 | 1.49 | 2.07 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 10:00 AM |
South Valley United Soccer Club 15th · 3-0-3 · GD +1 |
Home Madera South Highschool |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.17 | 2.08 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Walnut Creek Surf 10th · 3-2-1 · GD +5 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
1–1 | 1.52 | 2.03 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 10:00 AM |
Livermore Fusion SC 3rd · 5-1-0 · GD +38 |
Home Madera South Highschool |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.78 | 1.93 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Napa United | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 4 | +33 | 24 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.64 | +0.99 | 91% | 2.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 vs Solano Surf · Sun Mar 14 vs Livermore Fusion SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Burlingame SC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.22 | -0.55 | 82% | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Oct 18 vs South Valley Chivas · Sun Oct 25 at Alameda Soccer Club Islanders See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Livermore Fusion SC | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 41 | 3 | +38 | 16 | 2.67 | WWWWW | -1.26 | +0.33 | 91% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Mar 14 at Napa United See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | El Dorado Hills SC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 3 | +20 | 15 | 2.50 | WLWWW | -0.54 | -0.40 | 79% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at South Valley Chivas · Sun Nov 1 vs Solano Surf · Sun Nov 8 vs Madera United FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Madera United FC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 16 | 2.29 | WWDWL | -0.07 | +1.16 | 11% | 8.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Santa Cruz United FC · Sun Nov 8 at El Dorado Hills SC · Sun Mar 14 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Alameda Soccer Club Islanders | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 10 | 2.00 | WDWLW | +0.32 | -0.07 | 14% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Burlingame SC · Sun Nov 1 at South Valley Chivas · Sun Nov 8 vs SF United FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Los Gatos United Soccer Club | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 10 | 2.00 | DWWLW | -0.71 | +0.67 | 3% | 11.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Solano Surf · Sun Nov 1 at SF United FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Burlingame SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | San Juan South | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 13 | 1.86 | LWDWW | -0.87 | +0.41 | 1% | 11.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs West Coast Soccer -RL · Sun Nov 8 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sun Mar 14 at Elk Grove Soccer See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | SF United FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 13 | 1.86 | WWLWW | -0.97 | +0.04 | 1% | 11.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs North Coast FC BLUE · Sun Nov 1 vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Alameda Soccer Club Islanders See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Walnut Creek Surf | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 11 | 1.83 | DWWDL | +0.53 | -1.27 | 8% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Association FC · Sun Nov 1 at San Ramon FC · Sun Mar 14 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Santa Cruz United FC | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 12 | 1.71 | WWWLL | -0.62 | -0.59 | 0% | 13.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Madera United FC · Sun Nov 1 at Stanford Strikers · Sun Nov 8 at South Valley United Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | East County Revolution FC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 8 | 1.60 | LWDDW | +0.13 | -1.16 | 13% | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sun Nov 1 vs South Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at West Coast Soccer -RL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Folsom Lake Surf | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 5 | +16 | 11 | 1.57 | DDWWL | -0.63 | +0.38 | 2% | 9.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at South Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Nov 8 vs Livermore Fusion SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Reno APEX Soccer Club | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 11 | 1.57 | LDWLW | +0.10 | +1.22 | 0% | 14.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Napa United · Sun Nov 1 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sun Nov 8 vs San Juan South See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 9 | 1.50 | WLWLL | -0.09 | +1.04 | 0% | 18.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 1 at East County Revolution FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Cruz United FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | San Francisco Elite Academy | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 6 | +16 | 8 | 1.33 | LDDWW | -1.18 | -0.35 | 5% | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Nov 1 at Association FC · Sat Nov 7 at Cal Magic See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Association FC | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 9 | 1.29 | WWLWL | +0.39 | -0.11 | 0% | 18.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Mar 14 at Stanford Strikers See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Elk Grove Soccer | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 6 | 1.20 | LWLLW | +0.02 | -0.29 | 0% | 17.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at Burlingame SC · Sun Oct 25 at San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Folsom Lake Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | North Coast FC BLUE | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 7 | 1.17 | LWLLD | +0.36 | -0.47 | 0% | 17.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at SF United FC · Sun Nov 1 vs West Coast Soccer -RL · Sun Nov 8 at Eastshore Alliance FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 20 | Cal Magic | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 6 | 1.00 | LLLWL | +0.63 | +0.03 | 0% | 17.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 8 vs Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Apr 4 at Walnut Creek Surf See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 21 | Eastshore Alliance FC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 5 | 0.83 | DDLWL | +1.05 | -0.63 | 0% | 19.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Ramon FC · Sun Nov 1 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sun Nov 8 vs North Coast FC BLUE See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 22 | South Valley Chivas | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3 | 0.60 | WLLLL | +0.95 | -0.25 | 0% | 20.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 at Burlingame SC · Sun Oct 25 vs El Dorado Hills SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Alameda Soccer Club Islanders See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 23 | Solano Surf | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 1 | 0.17 | LLLLD | +0.50 | +0.78 | 0% | 23.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at El Dorado Hills SC · Sat Nov 7 at Napa United See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 24 | Santa Clara Sporting | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. |
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| 25 | Stanford Strikers | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 33 | -31 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.83 | +0.21 | 0% | 25.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Santa Cruz United FC · Sun Nov 8 vs San Ramon FC · Sun Mar 14 vs Association FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 26 | San Ramon FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 50 | -48 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.43 | -1.23 | 0% | 24.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Eastshore Alliance FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sun Nov 8 at Stanford Strikers See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 27 | West Coast Soccer -RL | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 48 | -48 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.55 | -0.97 | 0% | 25.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at San Juan South · Sun Nov 1 at North Coast FC BLUE · Sun Nov 8 vs East County Revolution FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 28 | Diablo Valley Futbol Club | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 55 | -54 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.19 | -0.48 | 0% | 25.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs East County Revolution FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Eastshore Alliance FC · Sun Nov 8 vs South Valley Chivas See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.