Mississippi Rush United

ECNL Regional League Girls · Mid-America GU14 · 9 teams · Mississippi Rush (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 46 minutes ago.

Add schedule to calendar

3rd

2-0-1 record · 3 played

2.00 points per game

-2 goal diff · 3–5

WLWlast 3

30% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.5

+0.44 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:00 PM

Open the match preview →

Mississippi Rush United
3rd · 2.00 PPG

Germantown Legends
2nd · 2.60 PPG

Holmes Community College Soccer Field, Soccer Field ↗

16% 20% 64%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.9 for, 2.1 against · 0.67 expected points)

Season so far	Mississippi Rush United	Germantown Legends
Position	3rd	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	2-0-1	4-1-0
Points per game	2.00	2.60
Goals for / game	1.0	3.0
Goals against / game	1.7	0.6
Clean sheets	1	2
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	W L W	W W W W D
Biggest win	1–0 vs Lobos Rush	5–1 vs FC Alliance TN
Worst loss	0–4 at Mississippi Surf	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.22	+1.36
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.44	-0.30

Common opponents: Lobos Rush — we 1–0; they 2–0. Mississippi Surf — we 0–4, 2–1; they 5–1.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Germantown Legends score 3.0/game — well above the league's 1.9.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
Germantown Legends concede only 0.6/game with 2 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 at Mississippi Surf.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 16%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
Germantown Legends have won 4 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Germantown Legends game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mississippi Rush United – Germantown Legends) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.50 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Win 2.25 PPG	2nd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 1
Draw 1.75 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Loss 1.50 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

30% top 4

70% below the top 4

5.5 average finish

1st <1%
2nd 6%
3rd 9%
4th 14%
5th 17%
6th 18%
7th 17%
8th 18%
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.81 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Tennessee United SC	3.00 (+1.00)	2nd (1.76)	42 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
2	Germantown Legends	2.60 (+0.60)	1st (2.31)	36 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection

How the results connect

8 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Mississippi Rush United to Germantown Legends through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us

4 favour them

-0.1 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.05 · 7th hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 03:00 PM	Germantown Legends 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +12	Home Holmes Community College Soccer Field	●●●●● Very tough	16%	0–2	0.67	1.67	Upside
Sat Feb 20 TBD	FC Alliance TN 6th · 1-2-1 · GD -2	Away	●●●●○ Tough	34%	1–1	1.27	1.59	Upside
Sun Feb 21 TBD	Chattanooga Red Wolves 5th · 1-2-1 · GD +4	Away	●●●●● Very tough	23%	1–2	0.89	1.47	Upside
Sat Feb 27 03:00 PM	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro 9th · 0-0-5 · GD -20	Away far trip Richard Siegel Soccer Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	69%	2–0	2.25	1.58	Swing game
Sun Feb 28 01:00 PM	Tennessee United SC 1st · 1-0-0 · GD +2	Away far trip Drakes Creek Park (DCP)	●●●●● Very tough	22%	1–2	0.87	1.50	Upside
Sat Apr 10 01:00 PM	FC Alliance TN 6th · 1-2-1 · GD -2	Home Freedom Ridge Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	43%	1–1	1.53	1.50	Swing game
Sun Apr 11 TBD	Chattanooga Red Wolves 5th · 1-2-1 · GD +4	Home	●●●●○ Tough	30%	1–1	1.14	1.46	Upside
Sat Apr 17 11:00 AM	Germantown Legends 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +12	Away far trip Snowden Groove Soccer Park	●●●●● Very tough	11%	0–2	0.50	1.38	Upside
Sun Apr 18 09:00 AM	Lobos Rush 4th · 2-1-2 · GD +0	Away far trip W.C. Johnson Turf Park · turf	●●●●○ Tough	30%	1–1	1.16	1.36	Upside
Sat Apr 24 01:00 PM	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro 9th · 0-0-5 · GD -20	Home Freedom Ridge Park	●○○○○ Favorable	77%	2–0	2.45	1.44	Bank it
Sun Apr 25 09:00 AM	Tennessee United SC 1st · 1-0-0 · GD +2	Home Freedom Ridge Park	●●●●○ Tough	30%	1–1	1.12	1.42	Upside
Sat May 8 TBD	Indy Eleven Spirit 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	29%	1–1	1.11	1.40	Upside
Sun May 9 TBD	Indy Eleven Spirit 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	29%	1–1	1.11	1.38	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Tennessee United SC

3.00

+0.68

-0.10

80%

3.2

Sun Sep 27

Mississippi Surf (7th)

4–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Tennessee SC Murfreesboro · Sun Nov 22 at Germantown Legends · Sat Dec 12 at Lobos Rush See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (9th)	3–1	86%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Germantown Legends (2nd)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Lobos Rush (4th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Chattanooga Red Wolves (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	FC Alliance TN (6th)	2–1	51%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Indy Eleven Spirit (8th)	2–1	55%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Chattanooga Red Wolves (5th)	2–1	46%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	FC Alliance TN (6th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Indy Eleven Spirit (8th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Lobos Rush (4th)	1–1	53%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Germantown Legends (2nd)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Mississippi Surf (7th)	2–2	34%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	1–1	48%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (9th)	4–0	91%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Germantown Legends

+12

2.60

DWWWW

-0.30

-0.09

100%

1.1

W	Sun Oct 11	at	Mississippi Surf (7th)	5–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (9th)	2–0
W	Wed Sep 30	vs	Lobos Rush (4th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	FC Alliance TN (6th)	5–1
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Chattanooga Red Wolves (5th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Mississippi Rush United · Sat Nov 7 at Indy Eleven Spirit · Sun Nov 22 vs Tennessee United SC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	2–0	64%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Indy Eleven Spirit (8th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Tennessee United SC (1st)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	FC Alliance TN (6th)	2–1	68%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Chattanooga Red Wolves (5th)	2–1	55%
·	Thu Mar 4	at	Lobos Rush (4th)	1–0	60%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (9th)	4–0	96%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Indy Eleven Spirit (8th)	2–1	72%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Tennessee United SC (1st)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	2–0	72%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Mississippi Surf (7th)	3–1	67%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mississippi Rush United

-2

2.00

WLW

+0.44

-0.05

30%

5.5

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Mississippi Surf (7th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Mississippi Surf (7th)	0–4
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Lobos Rush (4th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Germantown Legends · Sat Feb 20 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Feb 21 at Chattanooga Red Wolves See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Germantown Legends (2nd)	0–2	16%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	FC Alliance TN (6th)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Chattanooga Red Wolves (5th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (9th)	2–0	69%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Tennessee United SC (1st)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	FC Alliance TN (6th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Chattanooga Red Wolves (5th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Germantown Legends (2nd)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Lobos Rush (4th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (9th)	2–0	77%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Tennessee United SC (1st)	1–1	30%
·	Sat May 8	at	Indy Eleven Spirit (8th)	1–1	29%
·	Sun May 9	at	Indy Eleven Spirit (8th)	1–1	29%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lobos Rush

1.40

WDWLL

-0.12

+0.12

23%

5.8

L	Sun Oct 11	at	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	0–1
L	Wed Sep 30	at	Germantown Legends (2nd)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Chattanooga Red Wolves (5th)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Alliance TN (6th)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (9th)	3–1

Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Tennessee United SC · Sat Feb 27 at Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sun Feb 28 at FC Alliance TN See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Tennessee United SC (1st)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Chattanooga Red Wolves (5th)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	FC Alliance TN (6th)	1–1	38%
·	Thu Mar 4	vs	Germantown Legends (2nd)	0–1	18%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Mississippi Surf (7th)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (9th)	2–0	79%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Indy Eleven Spirit (8th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Tennessee United SC (1st)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Indy Eleven Spirit (8th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Mississippi Surf (7th)	1–2	33%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	1–1	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Chattanooga Red Wolves

1.25

WDDL

-0.24

+0.05

55%

4.4

L	Sun Sep 27	at	Lobos Rush (4th)	1–2
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Germantown Legends (2nd)	1–1
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Alliance TN (6th)	2–2
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (9th)	6–1

Next: Sun Oct 18 vs Indy Eleven Spirit · Sat Jan 30 vs Tennessee United SC · Sat Feb 13 at Tennessee SC Murfreesboro See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 18 (no score yet)	vs	Indy Eleven Spirit (8th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Tennessee United SC (1st)	2–2	45%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (9th)	3–0	84%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Mississippi Surf (7th)	2–2	45%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Lobos Rush (4th)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Germantown Legends (2nd)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Tennessee United SC (1st)	1–2	35%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Indy Eleven Spirit (8th)	2–1	43%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	FC Alliance TN (6th)	2–1	50%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Mississippi Surf (7th)	2–2	34%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	1–1	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Alliance TN

-2

1.25

DWDL

-0.12

+0.11

14%

6.5

L	Sun Sep 27	at	Germantown Legends (2nd)	1–5
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Lobos Rush (4th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (9th)	2–0
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Chattanooga Red Wolves (5th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Indy Eleven Spirit · Sun Jan 31 vs Tennessee United SC · Sat Feb 20 vs Mississippi Rush United See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	Indy Eleven Spirit (8th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Tennessee United SC (1st)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Mississippi Surf (7th)	2–2	28%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Germantown Legends (2nd)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Lobos Rush (4th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Indy Eleven Spirit (8th)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Tennessee United SC (1st)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (9th)	2–1	72%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Chattanooga Red Wolves (5th)	1–2	30%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Mississippi Surf (7th)	1–3	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mississippi Surf

1.20

WLLWL

-0.15

-0.02

59%

4.3

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	4–0
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Germantown Legends (2nd)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Tennessee United SC (1st)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (9th)	9–0

Next: Sat Feb 20 at Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sun Feb 21 at FC Alliance TN · Sat Mar 6 vs Lobos Rush See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Chattanooga Red Wolves (5th)	2–2	37%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	FC Alliance TN (6th)	2–2	54%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Lobos Rush (4th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Chattanooga Red Wolves (5th)	2–2	49%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	FC Alliance TN (6th)	3–1	65%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Lobos Rush (4th)	2–1	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Germantown Legends (2nd)	1–3	17%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Tennessee United SC (1st)	2–2	49%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (9th)	5–1	94%
·	Sat May 1	at	Indy Eleven Spirit (8th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 2	at	Indy Eleven Spirit (8th)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Indy Eleven Spirit

0.00

—

+0.01

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Oct 17 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Oct 18 at Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sat Nov 7 vs Germantown Legends See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	at	FC Alliance TN (6th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Oct 18 (no score yet)	at	Chattanooga Red Wolves (5th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Germantown Legends (2nd)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (9th)	3–0	85%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Tennessee United SC (1st)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	FC Alliance TN (6th)	2–1	50%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Chattanooga Red Wolves (5th)	1–2	36%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Tennessee United SC (1st)	1–2	36%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Germantown Legends (2nd)	1–2	13%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Lobos Rush (4th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Lobos Rush (4th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (9th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Mississippi Surf (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Mississippi Surf (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	1–1	48%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	1–1	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tennessee SC Murfreesboro

-20

0.00

LLLLL

+0.46

+0.24

9.0

L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Germantown Legends (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Mississippi Surf (7th)	0–9
L	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Alliance TN (6th)	0–2
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Chattanooga Red Wolves (5th)	1–6
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Lobos Rush (4th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Tennessee United SC · Sat Feb 13 vs Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sat Feb 20 at Indy Eleven Spirit See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Tennessee United SC (1st)	1–3	6%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Chattanooga Red Wolves (5th)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Indy Eleven Spirit (8th)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	0–2	13%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Germantown Legends (2nd)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Lobos Rush (4th)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	FC Alliance TN (6th)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Indy Eleven Spirit (8th)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Mississippi Surf (7th)	1–5	2%
·	Sat May 1	at	Tennessee United SC (1st)	0–4	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.88 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.