Indy Eleven Spirit
ECNL Regional League Girls · Mid-America GU14 · 9 teams · Indy Eleven Spirit (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 7, TBD
Venue TBD
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.2 for, 2.3 against · 0.73 expected points)
| Season so far | Indy Eleven Spirit | Germantown Legends |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 4-1-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 2.60 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 3.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | W W W W D |
| Biggest win | — | 5–1 vs FC Alliance TN |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +1.36 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | -0.30 |
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Germantown Legends score 3.0/game — well above the league's 1.9.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
Germantown Legends concede only 0.6/game with 2 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 18%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
Germantown Legends have won 4 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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What a win does
Mississippi Surf sit 7th on 1.20 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Mississippi Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Germantown Legends game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Indy Eleven Spirit – Germantown Legends) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 6 | 2nd▲ up 6 | 2nd▲ up 6 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 9%
- 3rd 13%
- 4th 16%
- 5th 16%
- 6th 16%
- 7th 16%
- 8th 14%
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tennessee United SC | 3.00 (+3.00) | 2nd (1.76) | Win next game |
| 2 | Germantown Legends | 2.60 (+2.60) | 1st (2.31) | A point next game |
| 3 | Mississippi Rush United | 2.00 (+2.00) | 6th (1.38) | A point next game |
| 4 | Lobos Rush | 1.40 (+1.40) | 7th (1.33) | A point next game |
| 5 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 1.25 (+1.25) | 4th (1.52) | A point next game |
| 6 | FC Alliance TN | 1.25 (+1.25) | 8th (1.20) | A point next game |
| 7 | Mississippi Surf | 1.20 (+1.20) | 3rd (1.54) | A point next game |
Position over the season
11 game days
Not enough game days yet to draw a line.
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.01 · 5th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 17 TBD no score posted |
FC Alliance TN 6th · 1-2-1 · GD -2 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
1–1 | 1.43 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 18 TBD no score posted |
Chattanooga Red Wolves 5th · 1-2-1 · GD +4 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–2 | 1.00 | 1.22 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 TBD |
Germantown Legends 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +12 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.73 | 1.06 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 TBD |
Tennessee SC Murfreesboro 9th · 0-0-5 · GD -20 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
3–0 | 2.63 | 1.45 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 27 01:00 PM |
Tennessee United SC 1st · 1-0-0 · GD +2 |
Away Drakes Creek Park (DCP) |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 0.98 | 1.36 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
FC Alliance TN 6th · 1-2-1 · GD -2 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–1 | 1.72 | 1.42 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 TBD |
Chattanooga Red Wolves 5th · 1-2-1 · GD +4 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
1–2 | 1.28 | 1.40 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Tennessee United SC 1st · 1-0-0 · GD +2 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
1–2 | 1.27 | 1.38 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 03:00 PM |
Germantown Legends 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +12 |
Away Snowden Groove Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–2 | 0.53 | 1.29 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 01:00 PM |
Lobos Rush 4th · 2-1-2 · GD +0 |
Away W.C. Johnson Turf Park · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–1 | 1.29 | 1.29 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Lobos Rush 4th · 2-1-2 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.54 | 1.31 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Tennessee SC Murfreesboro 9th · 0-0-5 · GD -20 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.46 | 1.41 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Mississippi Surf 7th · 2-0-3 · GD +6 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.22 | 1.39 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Mississippi Surf 7th · 2-0-3 · GD +6 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.22 | 1.38 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Mississippi Rush United 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD -2 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
1–1 | 1.66 | 1.40 | Swing game |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
Mississippi Rush United 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD -2 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
1–1 | 1.66 | 1.41 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tennessee United SC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 3.00 | W | +0.68 | -0.10 | 79% | 3.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Tennessee SC Murfreesboro · Sun Nov 22 at Germantown Legends · Sat Dec 12 at Lobos Rush See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Germantown Legends | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 3 | +12 | 13 | 2.60 | DWWWW | -0.30 | -0.09 | 100% | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Mississippi Rush United · Sat Nov 7 at Indy Eleven Spirit · Sun Nov 22 vs Tennessee United SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Mississippi Rush United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | +0.44 | -0.05 | 29% | 5.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Germantown Legends · Sat Feb 20 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Feb 21 at Chattanooga Red Wolves See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Lobos Rush | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 7 | 1.40 | WDWLL | -0.12 | +0.12 | 24% | 5.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Tennessee United SC · Sat Feb 27 at Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sun Feb 28 at FC Alliance TN See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 5 | 1.25 | WDDL | -0.24 | +0.05 | 55% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 vs Indy Eleven Spirit · Sat Jan 30 vs Tennessee United SC · Sat Feb 13 at Tennessee SC Murfreesboro See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | FC Alliance TN | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 5 | 1.25 | DWDL | -0.12 | +0.11 | 13% | 6.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Indy Eleven Spirit · Sun Jan 31 vs Tennessee United SC · Sat Feb 20 vs Mississippi Rush United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Mississippi Surf | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 6 | 1.20 | WLLWL | -0.15 | -0.02 | 61% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Feb 20 at Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sun Feb 21 at FC Alliance TN · Sat Mar 6 vs Lobos Rush See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Indy Eleven Spirit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.01 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Oct 17 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Oct 18 at Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sat Nov 7 vs Germantown Legends See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Tennessee SC Murfreesboro | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 22 | -20 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.46 | +0.24 | 0% | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Tennessee United SC · Sat Feb 13 vs Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sat Feb 20 at Indy Eleven Spirit See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.88 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.