Germantown Legends
ECNL Regional League Girls · Mid-America GU14 · 9 teams · Germantown Legends (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:00 PM
Holmes Community College Soccer Field, Soccer Field ↗ far trip
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.1 for, 0.9 against · 2.12 expected points)
| Season so far | Germantown Legends | Mississippi Rush United |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-1-0 | 2-0-1 |
| Points per game | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.6 | 1.7 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W D | W L W |
| Biggest win | 5–1 vs FC Alliance TN | 1–0 vs Lobos Rush |
| Worst loss | — | 0–4 at Mississippi Surf |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.36 | -0.22 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.30 | +0.44 |
Common opponents: Lobos Rush — we 2–0; they 1–0. Mississippi Surf — we 5–1; they 0–4, 2–1.
Game plan
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 64% / draw 20% / loss 16%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Away game
Kickoff 03:00 PM at Holmes Community College Soccer Field.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Mississippi Rush United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Germantown Legends – Mississippi Rush United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.67 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.67 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.33 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Loss 2.17 PPG |
3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 88%
- 2nd 9%
- 3rd 2%
- 4th <1%
- 5th <1%
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tennessee United SC | 3.00 (+0.40) | 2nd (1.76) | 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
How the results connect
8 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Germantown Legends to Mississippi Rush United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.09 · 8th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 03:00 PM |
Mississippi Rush United 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Holmes Community College Soccer Field |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–0 | 2.12 | 2.52 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 TBD |
Indy Eleven Spirit 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
2–1 | 2.08 | 2.46 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 22 11:00 AM |
Tennessee United SC 1st · 1-0-0 · GD +2 |
Home Mike Rose Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
2–1 | 2.13 | 2.42 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 27 TBD |
FC Alliance TN 6th · 1-2-1 · GD -2 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–1 | 2.21 | 2.39 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 28 TBD |
Chattanooga Red Wolves 5th · 1-2-1 · GD +4 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–1 | 1.86 | 2.34 | Swing game |
| Thu Mar 4 08:00 PM |
Lobos Rush 4th · 2-1-2 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Progress Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
1–0 | 2.01 | 2.31 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 11:00 AM |
Tennessee SC Murfreesboro 9th · 0-0-5 · GD -20 |
Home Snowden Groove Soccer Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 96% |
4–0 | 2.90 | 2.36 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 3 03:00 PM |
Indy Eleven Spirit 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Snowden Groove Soccer Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–1 | 2.31 | 2.36 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 11:00 AM |
Tennessee United SC 1st · 1-0-0 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Drakes Creek Park (DCP) |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–1 | 1.87 | 2.32 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 11:00 AM |
Mississippi Rush United 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD -2 |
Home Snowden Groove Soccer Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–0 | 2.33 | 2.32 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 11:00 AM |
Mississippi Surf 7th · 2-0-3 · GD +6 |
Home Snowden Groove Soccer Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
3–1 | 2.17 | 2.31 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tennessee United SC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 3.00 | W | +0.68 | -0.10 | 79% | 3.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Tennessee SC Murfreesboro · Sun Nov 22 at Germantown Legends · Sat Dec 12 at Lobos Rush See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Germantown Legends | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 3 | +12 | 13 | 2.60 | DWWWW | -0.30 | -0.09 | 100% | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Mississippi Rush United · Sat Nov 7 at Indy Eleven Spirit · Sun Nov 22 vs Tennessee United SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Mississippi Rush United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | +0.44 | -0.05 | 30% | 5.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Germantown Legends · Sat Feb 20 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Feb 21 at Chattanooga Red Wolves See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Lobos Rush | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 7 | 1.40 | WDWLL | -0.12 | +0.12 | 26% | 5.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Tennessee United SC · Sat Feb 27 at Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sun Feb 28 at FC Alliance TN See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 5 | 1.25 | WDDL | -0.24 | +0.05 | 54% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 vs Indy Eleven Spirit · Sat Jan 30 vs Tennessee United SC · Sat Feb 13 at Tennessee SC Murfreesboro See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | FC Alliance TN | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 5 | 1.25 | DWDL | -0.12 | +0.11 | 12% | 6.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Indy Eleven Spirit · Sun Jan 31 vs Tennessee United SC · Sat Feb 20 vs Mississippi Rush United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Mississippi Surf | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 6 | 1.20 | WLLWL | -0.15 | -0.02 | 61% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Feb 20 at Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sun Feb 21 at FC Alliance TN · Sat Mar 6 vs Lobos Rush See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Indy Eleven Spirit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.01 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Oct 17 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Oct 18 at Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sat Nov 7 vs Germantown Legends See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Tennessee SC Murfreesboro | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 22 | -20 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.46 | +0.24 | 0% | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Tennessee United SC · Sat Feb 13 vs Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sat Feb 20 at Indy Eleven Spirit See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.88 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.