Mississippi Surf
ECNL Regional League Girls · Mid-America GU14 · 9 teams · Mississippi Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sat Feb 20, TBD
Venue TBD
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.5 for, 2.7 against · 1.30 expected points)
| Season so far | Mississippi Surf | Chattanooga Red Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-3 | 1-2-1 |
| Points per game | 1.20 | 1.25 |
| Goals for / game | 3.4 | 2.5 |
| Goals against / game | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L L W | L D D W |
| Biggest win | 9–0 at Tennessee SC Murfreesboro | 6–1 vs Tennessee SC Murfreesboro |
| Worst loss | 1–5 vs Germantown Legends | 1–2 at Lobos Rush |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.68 | +0.44 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.15 | -0.24 |
Common opponents: Tennessee SC Murfreesboro — we 9–0; they 6–1. Germantown Legends — we 1–5; they 1–1.
Game plan
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 37%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff TBD at TBD.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
FC Alliance TN sit 6th on 1.25 PPG; we are on 1.20.A point moves us above FC Alliance TN on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Chattanooga Red Wolves game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mississippi Surf – Chattanooga Red Wolves) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Feb 15 – Sun Feb 21); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.17 PPG |
7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
4th▲ up 3 | 4th▲ up 3 | 6th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.17 PPG |
7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 18%
- 3rd 21%
- 4th 19%
- 5th 15%
- 6th 12%
- 7th 9%
- 8th 5%
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tennessee United SC | 3.00 (+1.80) | 2nd (1.76) | 42 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 2 | Germantown Legends | 2.60 (+1.40) | 1st (2.31) | 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 3 | Mississippi Rush United | 2.00 (+0.80) | 6th (1.38) | 26 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 4 | Lobos Rush | 1.40 (+0.20) | 7th (1.33) | A point next game |
| 5 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 1.25 (+0.05) | 4th (1.52) | A point next game |
| 6 | FC Alliance TN | 1.25 (+0.05) | 8th (1.20) | A point next game |
How the results connect
10 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Mississippi Surf to Chattanooga Red Wolves through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.02 · 6th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Feb 20 TBD |
Chattanooga Red Wolves 5th · 1-2-1 · GD +4 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
2–2 | 1.30 | 1.22 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 21 TBD |
FC Alliance TN 6th · 1-2-1 · GD -2 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–2 | 1.80 | 1.30 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 01:00 PM |
Lobos Rush 4th · 2-1-2 · GD +0 |
Home BankPlus Sportsplex at Ballard Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.89 | 1.37 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Chattanooga Red Wolves 5th · 1-2-1 · GD +4 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–2 | 1.64 | 1.40 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
FC Alliance TN 6th · 1-2-1 · GD -2 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
3–1 | 2.11 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 04:00 PM |
Lobos Rush 4th · 2-1-2 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
W.C. Johnson Turf Park · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–1 | 1.60 | 1.49 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 11:00 AM |
Germantown Legends 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +12 |
Away far trip
Snowden Groove Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–3 | 0.68 | 1.42 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Tennessee United SC 1st · 1-0-0 · GD +2 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–2 | 1.63 | 1.43 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Tennessee SC Murfreesboro 9th · 0-0-5 · GD -20 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
5–1 | 2.86 | 1.54 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Indy Eleven Spirit 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.60 | 1.54 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Indy Eleven Spirit 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.60 | 1.54 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Tennessee United SC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 3.00 | W | +0.68 | -0.10 | 79% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Tennessee SC Murfreesboro · Sun Nov 22 at Germantown Legends · Sat Dec 12 at Lobos Rush See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Germantown Legends | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 3 | +12 | 13 | 2.60 | DWWWW | -0.30 | -0.09 | 100% | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Mississippi Rush United · Sat Nov 7 at Indy Eleven Spirit · Sun Nov 22 vs Tennessee United SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Mississippi Rush United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | +0.44 | -0.05 | 30% | 5.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Germantown Legends · Sat Feb 20 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Feb 21 at Chattanooga Red Wolves See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Lobos Rush | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 7 | 1.40 | WDWLL | -0.12 | +0.12 | 25% | 5.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Tennessee United SC · Sat Feb 27 at Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sun Feb 28 at FC Alliance TN See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 5 | 1.25 | WDDL | -0.24 | +0.05 | 55% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 vs Indy Eleven Spirit · Sat Jan 30 vs Tennessee United SC · Sat Feb 13 at Tennessee SC Murfreesboro See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | FC Alliance TN | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 5 | 1.25 | DWDL | -0.12 | +0.11 | 13% | 6.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Indy Eleven Spirit · Sun Jan 31 vs Tennessee United SC · Sat Feb 20 vs Mississippi Rush United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Mississippi Surf | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 6 | 1.20 | WLLWL | -0.15 | -0.02 | 59% | 4.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Feb 20 at Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sun Feb 21 at FC Alliance TN · Sat Mar 6 vs Lobos Rush See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Indy Eleven Spirit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.01 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Oct 17 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Oct 18 at Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sat Nov 7 vs Germantown Legends See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Tennessee SC Murfreesboro | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 22 | -20 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.46 | +0.24 | 0% | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Tennessee United SC · Sat Feb 13 vs Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sat Feb 20 at Indy Eleven Spirit See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.88 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.