Tennessee United SC
ECNL Regional League Girls · Mid-America GU14 · 9 teams · Tennessee United SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM
Rockvale High School, Stadium Field ↗ · turf? far trip
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.9 for, 1.0 against · 2.66 expected points)
| Season so far | Tennessee United SC | Tennessee SC Murfreesboro |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-0 | 0-0-5 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 4.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 4.4 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | W | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | 4–2 vs Mississippi Surf | — |
| Worst loss | — | 0–9 vs Mississippi Surf |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.49 | -2.30 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.68 | +0.46 |
Common opponents: Mississippi Surf — we 4–2; they 0–9.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Tennessee SC Murfreesboro average 0.4 goals/game (league avg 1.9); blanked in 3 of 5.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Tennessee SC Murfreesboro concede 4.4/game; worst result 0–9 vs Mississippi Surf.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 86% chance; likely score 3–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
Confidence is low on their side
Tennessee SC Murfreesboro have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
-
Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at Rockvale High School.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Tennessee SC Murfreesboro game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Tennessee United SC – Tennessee SC Murfreesboro) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.50 PPG |
3rd▼ down 2 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 7%
- 2nd 38%
- 3rd 22%
- 4th 14%
- 5th 8%
- 6th 6%
- 7th 4%
- 8th 2%
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
2 chains · 4 teams
Paths of results that link Tennessee United SC to Tennessee SC Murfreesboro through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.10 · 9th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM |
Tennessee SC Murfreesboro 9th · 0-0-5 · GD -20 |
Away far trip
Rockvale High School · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
3–1 | 2.66 | 2.83 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 22 11:00 AM |
Germantown Legends 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +12 |
Away far trip
Mike Rose Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–2 | 0.69 | 2.12 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 12 12:00 PM |
Lobos Rush 4th · 2-1-2 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
W.C. Johnson Turf Park · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.54 | 1.97 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 30 09:00 AM |
Chattanooga Red Wolves 5th · 1-2-1 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
CSLA |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.26 | 1.83 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 31 11:00 AM |
FC Alliance TN 6th · 1-2-1 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
UT Rec Center |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
2–1 | 1.72 | 1.81 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 27 01:00 PM |
Indy Eleven Spirit 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Drakes Creek Park (DCP) |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–1 | 1.83 | 1.81 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 28 01:00 PM |
Mississippi Rush United 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD -2 |
Home Drakes Creek Park (DCP) |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.92 | 1.83 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 01:00 PM |
Chattanooga Red Wolves 5th · 1-2-1 · GD +4 |
Home Moss Wright Park (MWP) |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
2–1 | 1.57 | 1.80 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 11:00 AM |
FC Alliance TN 6th · 1-2-1 · GD -2 |
Home Drakes Creek Park (DCP) |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
2–1 | 2.00 | 1.82 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Indy Eleven Spirit 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
2–1 | 1.53 | 1.79 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 01:00 PM |
Lobos Rush 4th · 2-1-2 · GD +0 |
Home Moss Wright Park (MWP) |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
1–1 | 1.80 | 1.79 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 11:00 AM |
Germantown Legends 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +12 |
Home Drakes Creek Park (DCP) |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–2 | 0.93 | 1.73 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Mississippi Surf 7th · 2-0-3 · GD +6 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
2–2 | 1.19 | 1.69 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 09:00 AM |
Mississippi Rush United 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Freedom Ridge Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
1–1 | 1.66 | 1.69 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 01:00 PM |
Tennessee SC Murfreesboro 9th · 0-0-5 · GD -20 |
Home Moss Wright Park (MWP) |
●○○○○ Favorable | 91% |
4–0 | 2.79 | 1.76 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tennessee United SC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 3.00 | W | +0.68 | -0.10 | 80% | 3.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Tennessee SC Murfreesboro · Sun Nov 22 at Germantown Legends · Sat Dec 12 at Lobos Rush See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Germantown Legends | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 3 | +12 | 13 | 2.60 | DWWWW | -0.30 | -0.09 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Mississippi Rush United · Sat Nov 7 at Indy Eleven Spirit · Sun Nov 22 vs Tennessee United SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Mississippi Rush United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | +0.44 | -0.05 | 30% | 5.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Germantown Legends · Sat Feb 20 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Feb 21 at Chattanooga Red Wolves See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Lobos Rush | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 7 | 1.40 | WDWLL | -0.12 | +0.12 | 23% | 5.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Tennessee United SC · Sat Feb 27 at Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sun Feb 28 at FC Alliance TN See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 5 | 1.25 | WDDL | -0.24 | +0.05 | 55% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 vs Indy Eleven Spirit · Sat Jan 30 vs Tennessee United SC · Sat Feb 13 at Tennessee SC Murfreesboro See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | FC Alliance TN | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 5 | 1.25 | DWDL | -0.12 | +0.11 | 14% | 6.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Indy Eleven Spirit · Sun Jan 31 vs Tennessee United SC · Sat Feb 20 vs Mississippi Rush United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Mississippi Surf | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 6 | 1.20 | WLLWL | -0.15 | -0.02 | 59% | 4.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Feb 20 at Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sun Feb 21 at FC Alliance TN · Sat Mar 6 vs Lobos Rush See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Indy Eleven Spirit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.01 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Oct 17 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Oct 18 at Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sat Nov 7 vs Germantown Legends See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Tennessee SC Murfreesboro | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 22 | -20 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.46 | +0.24 | 0% | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Tennessee United SC · Sat Feb 13 vs Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sat Feb 20 at Indy Eleven Spirit See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.88 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.