TableChase Clubs

LV Heat Surf

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southwest BU13 · 18 teams · LV Heat Surf SC (all teams)

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16th
1-0-6 record · 7 played
0.43 points per game
-21 goal diff · 3–24
LLWLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 16.7
+0.53 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM

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LV Heat Surf
16th · 0.43 PPG
vs
SDSC Surf Blue
11th · 1.00 PPG

Heritage Park Sports Complex, Field 13 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.7 for, 2.2 against · 0.51 expected points)

Season so farLV Heat SurfSDSC Surf Blue
Position16th11th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-61-1-2
Points per game0.431.00
Goals for / game0.41.3
Goals against / game3.41.0
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless63
Form (recent first)L L W L LD L W L
Biggest win3–1 vs SDSC Surf Gold5–1 vs Legends FC Gold
Worst loss0–6 at San Diego Surf White0–2 vs CDA Slammers FC Maroon
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.90+0.20
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.53+0.33

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    SDSC Surf Blue concede only 1.0/game with 1 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 6 time(s): 0–2 vs Rebels SC, 0–6 at San Diego Surf White, 0–2 at San Diego Surf Blue, 0–5 vs CDA Slammers FC White, 0–4 at Pateadores Blue, 0–4 at Pateadores Gold.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 11%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Eagles SC sit 15th on 0.75 PPG; we are on 0.43.

    A win moves us above Eagles SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SDSC Surf Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LV Heat Surf – SDSC Surf Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.38 PPG		 16th— holds 16th— holds 17th▼ down 1
Win
0.75 PPG		 16th— holds 15th▲ up 1 16th— holds
Draw
0.50 PPG		 16th— holds 16th— holds 17th▼ down 1
Loss
0.38 PPG		 16th— holds 16th— holds 17th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we stay 16th even if every rival loses, and as low as 17th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
16.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th 4%
  15. 15th 12%
  16. 16th 21%
  17. 17th 30%
  18. 18th 31%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 1.94 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf White 3.00 (+2.57) 3rd (2.23) 48 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 San Diego Surf Blue 3.00 (+2.57) 1st (2.50) 48 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 CDA Slammers FC White 2.25 (+1.82) 4th (1.97) 36 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 LAFC 2.17 (+1.74) 2nd (2.27) 34 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Pateadores Blue 2.00 (+1.57) 5th (1.89) 31 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
6 CDA Slammers FC Maroon 1.80 (+1.37) 7th (1.61) 28 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
7 Pateadores Gold 1.60 (+1.17) 8th (1.54) 25 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
8 Rebels SC 1.40 (+0.97) 11th (1.27) 21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
9 Legends FC Black 1.25 (+0.82) 6th (1.69) 19 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
10 Beach Futbol Club Gold 1.25 (+0.82) 9th (1.53) 19 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
11 SDSC Surf Blue 1.00 (+0.57) 10th (1.41) 14 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
12 West Coast FC Navy 1.00 (+0.57) 13th (1.06) 14 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
13 Sporting California USA RED 1.00 (+0.57) 14th (1.03) 14 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
14 SDSC Surf Gold 1.00 (+0.57) 15th (0.67) 14 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection
15 Eagles SC 0.75 (+0.32) 12th (1.22) Win next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 13 teams

Paths of results that link LV Heat Surf to SDSC Surf Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
2 even
7 favour them
-3.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–2 2–0 0–0 1–0 1–0 0–2 0–0 0–6 3–1 2–0 0–4 1–1 4–0 0–5 0–3 0–4 0–4 3–1 0–11 2–0 1–5 LV Heat Surf 16th San Diego Surf Blue 2nd Rebels SC 8th San Diego Surf White 1st Pateadores Gold 7th CDA Slammers FC Whi… 3rd Pateadores Blue 5th SDSC Surf Gold 14th Legends FC Black 9th LAFC 4th CDA Slammers FC Mar… 6th Legends FC Gold 17th SDSC Surf Blue 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 13 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.21 · 15th hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
10:00 AM		 SDSC Surf Blue
11th · 1-1-2 · GD +1		 Home
Heritage Park Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
11%		 0–2 0.51 0.44 Upside
Sun Nov 15
10:00 AM		 West Coast FC Navy
12th · 1-1-2 · GD -2		 Home
Heritage Park Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
17%		 0–1 0.73 0.47 Upside
Sun Nov 22
TBD		 Beach Futbol Club Gold
10th · 1-2-1 · GD +1		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
10%		 0–2 0.43 0.47 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 CDA Slammers FC Maroon
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +1		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
10%		 0–2 0.46 0.47 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD		 Eagles SC
15th · 1-0-3 · GD -4		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
11%		 0–2 0.47 0.47 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 LAFC
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +18		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–4 0.07 0.44 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Sporting California USA RED
13th · 1-0-2 · GD -8		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
19%		 1–3 0.71 0.46 Upside
Sat Apr 17
11:00 AM		 Legends FC Gold
17th · 0-0-3 · GD -8		 Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–1 0.87 0.48 Upside
Sun Apr 18
11:00 AM		 Legends FC Black
9th · 1-2-1 · GD +2		 Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 0–2 0.30 0.47 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 Sporting California USA NAVY
18th · 0-0-4 · GD -15		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
32%		 1–2 1.17 0.51 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf White 4400 132+11 123.00 WWWW -0.81 +0.13 85% 3.0
2 San Diego Surf Blue 5500 110+11 153.00 WWWWW +0.09 -0.17 99% 1.6
3 CDA Slammers FC White 4301 146+8 92.25 WWLW -0.01 -0.10 51% 4.7
4 LAFC 6411 213+18 132.17 WWWLD -0.12 -0.10 93% 2.5
5 Pateadores Blue 5311 177+10 102.00 WWLDW -0.53 +0.10 40% 5.1
6 CDA Slammers FC Maroon 5302 109+1 91.80 WWLWL +0.33 -0.16 8% 7.7
7 Pateadores Gold 5221 137+6 81.60 DDLWW -0.93 +0.29 5% 8.3
8 Rebels SC 5212 99+0 71.40 WWLLD -0.33 +0.16 1% 10.9
9 Legends FC Black 4121 53+2 51.25 LDWD +0.79 -0.31 12% 7.0
10 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4121 87+1 51.25 DWDL +0.69 -0.25 4% 8.4
11 SDSC Surf Blue 4112 54+1 41.00 LWLD +0.33 -0.13 1% 9.5
12 West Coast FC Navy 4112 57-2 41.00 DLWL -0.40 +0.14 0% 12.7
13 Sporting California USA RED 3102 816-8 31.00 LLW +0.59 -0.07 0% 13.0
14 SDSC Surf Gold 4112 718-11 41.00 DLWL -0.66 +0.30 0% 15.7
15 Eagles SC 4103 59-4 30.75 LLWL +0.94 -0.29 0% 11.3
16 LV Heat Surf 7106 324-21 30.43 LLWLL +0.53 -0.21 0% 16.7
17 Legends FC Gold 3003 19-8 00.00 LLL +0.43 -0.02 0% 15.8
18 Sporting California USA NAVY 4004 621-15 00.00 LLLL +0.12 +0.09 0% 16.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.00 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.