TableChase Clubs

SDSC Surf Blue

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southwest BU13 · 18 teams · SDSC Surf (all teams)

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11th
1-1-2 record · 4 played
1.00 points per game
+1 goal diff · 5–4
LWLDlast 4
2% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.6
+0.33 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM

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SDSC Surf Blue
11th · 1.00 PPG
at
LV Heat Surf
16th · 0.43 PPG

Heritage Park Sports Complex, Field 13 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.2 for, 0.7 against · 2.31 expected points)

Season so farSDSC Surf BlueLV Heat Surf
Position11th16th
Record (W-D-L)1-1-21-0-6
Points per game1.000.43
Goals for / game1.30.4
Goals against / game1.03.4
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless36
Form (recent first)D L W LL L W L L
Biggest win5–1 vs Legends FC Gold3–1 vs SDSC Surf Gold
Worst loss0–2 vs CDA Slammers FC Maroon0–6 at San Diego Surf White
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.20-1.90
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.33+0.53

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    LV Heat Surf average 0.4 goals/game (league avg 2.0); blanked in 6 of 7.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    LV Heat Surf concede 3.4/game; worst result 0–6 at San Diego Surf White.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–2 vs CDA Slammers FC Maroon, 0–1 at LAFC, 0–0 vs Legends FC Black.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 71% chance; likely score 2–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:00 AM at Heritage Park Sports Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Beach Futbol Club Gold sit 10th on 1.25 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above Beach Futbol Club Gold on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LV Heat Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SDSC Surf Blue – LV Heat Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.40 PPG		 8th▲ up 3 10th▲ up 1 12th▼ down 1
Win
1.40 PPG		 8th▲ up 3 10th▲ up 1 12th▼ down 1
Draw
1.00 PPG		 11th— holds 11th— holds 15th▼ down 4
Loss
0.80 PPG		 14th▼ down 3 12th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
2% top 4
98% below the top 4
9.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 3%
  6. 6th 6%
  7. 7th 9%
  8. 8th 13%
  9. 9th 16%
  10. 10th 16%
  11. 11th 13%
  12. 12th 11%
  13. 13th 6%
  14. 14th 4%
  15. 15th 1%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th <1%
  18. 18th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.53 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf White 3.00 (+2.00) 3rd (2.23) 47 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
2 San Diego Surf Blue 3.00 (+2.00) 1st (2.50) 47 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
3 CDA Slammers FC White 2.25 (+1.25) 4th (1.97) 35 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
4 LAFC 2.17 (+1.17) 2nd (2.27) 33 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
5 Pateadores Blue 2.00 (+1.00) 5th (1.89) 30 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
6 CDA Slammers FC Maroon 1.80 (+0.80) 7th (1.61) 27 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
7 Pateadores Gold 1.60 (+0.60) 8th (1.54) 24 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
8 Rebels SC 1.40 (+0.40) 11th (1.27) Win next game
9 Legends FC Black 1.25 (+0.25) 6th (1.69) A point next game
10 Beach Futbol Club Gold 1.25 (+0.25) 9th (1.53) A point next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 13 teams

Paths of results that link SDSC Surf Blue to LV Heat Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us
2 even
1 favour them
+3.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–0 0–2 2–0 0–1 0–1 0–0 2–0 0–2 1–3 6–0 1–1 4–0 0–4 3–0 5–0 4–0 4–0 11–0 1–3 5–1 0–2 SDSC Surf Blue 11th Legends FC Black 9th LAFC 4th CDA Slammers FC Mar… 6th Legends FC Gold 17th San Diego Surf Blue 2nd Rebels SC 8th San Diego Surf White 1st Pateadores Gold 7th CDA Slammers FC Whi… 3rd Pateadores Blue 5th SDSC Surf Gold 14th LV Heat Surf 16th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 13 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.13 · 12th hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
10:00 AM		 LV Heat Surf
16th · 1-0-6 · GD -21		 Away far trip
Heritage Park Sports Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
71%		 2–0 2.31 1.26 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM		 Sporting California USA RED
13th · 1-0-2 · GD -8		 Home
Maranatha Christian School		 ●●○○○ Lean win
67%		 3–1 2.16 1.41 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM		 Beach Futbol Club Gold
10th · 1-2-1 · GD +1		 Away far trip
Redondo Union High School		 ●●●●○ Tough
33%		 1–1 1.25 1.39 Upside
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM		 San Diego Surf White
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +11		 Away far trip
Surf Sports Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
17%		 0–1 0.73 1.31 Upside
Sun Nov 15
11:00 AM		 Eagles SC
15th · 1-0-3 · GD -4		 Home
Maranatha Christian School		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
52%		 1–1 1.79 1.36 Swing game
Sun Nov 22
05:15 PM		 Sporting California USA NAVY
18th · 0-0-4 · GD -15		 Away far trip
Ontario Sports Empire		 ●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 2–1 2.25 1.45 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 CDA Slammers FC White
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +8		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
23%		 1–2 0.90 1.40 Upside
Sun Apr 4
10:45 AM		 Pateadores Blue
5th · 3-1-1 · GD +10		 Home
Westview High School · turf?		 ●●●●○ Tough
30%		 1–1 1.12 1.38 Upside
Sun Apr 11
11:00 AM		 San Diego Surf Blue
2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +11		 Home
Maranatha Christian School		 ●●●●● Very tough
17%		 0–1 0.76 1.33 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Pateadores Gold
7th · 2-2-1 · GD +6		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–1 1.11 1.31 Upside
Sun Apr 25
11:00 AM		 SDSC Surf Gold
14th · 1-1-2 · GD -11		 Home
Maranatha Christian School		 ●●○○○ Lean win
74%		 3–1 2.37 1.38 Bank it
Sun May 2
TBD		 West Coast FC Navy
12th · 1-1-2 · GD -2		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 1–1 1.58 1.40 Swing game
Sun May 9
11:00 AM		 Rebels SC
8th · 2-1-2 · GD +0		 Home
Maranatha Christian School		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
48%		 1–1 1.68 1.41 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf White 4400 132+11 123.00 WWWW -0.81 +0.13 87% 2.9
2 San Diego Surf Blue 5500 110+11 153.00 WWWWW +0.09 -0.17 98% 1.6
3 CDA Slammers FC White 4301 146+8 92.25 WWLW -0.01 -0.10 50% 4.7
4 LAFC 6411 213+18 132.17 WWWLD -0.12 -0.10 94% 2.5
5 Pateadores Blue 5311 177+10 102.00 WWLDW -0.53 +0.10 41% 5.1
6 CDA Slammers FC Maroon 5302 109+1 91.80 WWLWL +0.33 -0.16 7% 7.7
7 Pateadores Gold 5221 137+6 81.60 DDLWW -0.93 +0.29 5% 8.3
8 Rebels SC 5212 99+0 71.40 WWLLD -0.33 +0.16 1% 11.0
9 Legends FC Black 4121 53+2 51.25 LDWD +0.79 -0.31 12% 7.1
10 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4121 87+1 51.25 DWDL +0.69 -0.25 3% 8.5
11 SDSC Surf Blue 4112 54+1 41.00 LWLD +0.33 -0.13 2% 9.6
12 West Coast FC Navy 4112 57-2 41.00 DLWL -0.40 +0.14 0% 12.7
13 Sporting California USA RED 3102 816-8 31.00 LLW +0.59 -0.07 0% 13.0
14 SDSC Surf Gold 4112 718-11 41.00 DLWL -0.66 +0.30 0% 15.7
15 Eagles SC 4103 59-4 30.75 LLWL +0.94 -0.29 0% 11.3
16 LV Heat Surf 7106 324-21 30.43 LLWLL +0.53 -0.21 0% 16.7
17 Legends FC Gold 3003 19-8 00.00 LLL +0.43 -0.02 0% 15.7
18 Sporting California USA NAVY 4004 621-15 00.00 LLLL +0.12 +0.09 0% 16.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.00 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.