Rebels SC
ECNL Regional League Boys · Southwest BU13 · 18 teams · Rebels Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 05:15 PM
San Bernardino Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 3.0 for, 2.5 against · 1.67 expected points)
| Season so far | Rebels SC | Sporting California USA RED |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 13th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-1-2 | 1-0-2 |
| Points per game | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.8 | 2.7 |
| Goals against / game | 1.8 | 5.3 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | D L L W W | W L L |
| Biggest win | 6–2 vs Sporting California USA NAVY | 5–2 vs Pateadores Gold |
| Worst loss | 0–4 vs Beach Futbol Club Gold | 1–8 vs Pateadores Blue |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.11 | -1.11 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.33 | +0.59 |
Game plan
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They leak goals — be greedy
Sporting California USA RED concede 5.3/game; worst result 1–8 vs Pateadores Blue.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–4 vs Beach Futbol Club Gold, 0–0 vs LAFC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 50% / draw 17% / loss 33%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Away game
Kickoff 05:15 PM at San Bernardino Soccer Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Pateadores Gold sit 7th on 1.60 PPG; we are on 1.40.A point moves us above Pateadores Gold on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sporting California USA RED game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Rebels SC – Sporting California USA RED) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.33 PPG |
8th— holds | 11th▼ down 3 | 13th▼ down 5 |
| Win 1.67 PPG |
7th▲ up 1 | 7th▲ up 1 | 8th— holds |
| Draw 1.33 PPG |
8th— holds | 11th▼ down 3 | 13th▼ down 5 |
| Loss 1.17 PPG |
11th▼ down 3 | 12th▼ down 4 | 15th▼ down 7 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th <1%
- 5th 1%
- 6th 2%
- 7th 4%
- 8th 7%
- 9th 9%
- 10th 14%
- 11th 18%
- 12th 20%
- 13th 14%
- 14th 8%
- 15th 2%
- 16th 1%
- 17th <1%
- 18th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.53 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Diego Surf White | 3.00 (+1.60) | 3rd (2.23) | 44 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 2 | San Diego Surf Blue | 3.00 (+1.60) | 1st (2.50) | 44 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection |
| 3 | CDA Slammers FC White | 2.25 (+0.85) | 4th (1.97) | 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 4 | LAFC | 2.17 (+0.77) | 2nd (2.27) | 30 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection |
| 5 | Pateadores Blue | 2.00 (+0.60) | 5th (1.89) | 27 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 6 | CDA Slammers FC Maroon | 1.80 (+0.40) | 7th (1.61) | 24 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 7 | Pateadores Gold | 1.60 (+0.20) | 8th (1.54) | A point next game |
How the results connect
6 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Rebels SC to Sporting California USA RED through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.16 · 3rd hardest of 18
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 05:15 PM |
Sporting California USA RED 13th · 1-0-2 · GD -8 |
Away far trip
San Bernardino Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–2 | 1.67 | 1.45 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 TBD |
CDA Slammers FC Maroon 6th · 3-0-2 · GD +1 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–2 | 1.10 | 1.40 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 04:30 PM |
Legends FC Gold 17th · 0-0-3 · GD -8 |
Home El Cajon Valley High School · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.15 | 1.49 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 01:00 PM |
Legends FC Black 9th · 1-2-1 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–1 | 0.91 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 01:00 PM |
San Diego Surf Blue 2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
0–2 | 0.44 | 1.33 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 08:30 AM |
San Diego Surf White 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +11 |
Home Monte Vista High School · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.73 | 1.27 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 10:15 AM |
SDSC Surf Gold 14th · 1-1-2 · GD -11 |
Home Monte Vista High School · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
3–1 | 2.28 | 1.36 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Pateadores Gold 7th · 2-2-1 · GD +6 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.90 | 1.32 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
CDA Slammers FC White 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +8 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–2 | 0.67 | 1.28 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 08:30 AM |
West Coast FC Navy 12th · 1-1-2 · GD -2 |
Home Southwestern College · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
1–1 | 1.68 | 1.30 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 02:15 PM |
Pateadores Blue 5th · 3-1-1 · GD +10 |
Home Monte Vista High School · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–2 | 0.90 | 1.28 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 11:00 AM |
SDSC Surf Blue 11th · 1-1-2 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Maranatha Christian School |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–1 | 1.07 | 1.27 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | San Diego Surf White | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | +11 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.81 | +0.13 | 88% | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at LAFC · Sun Nov 1 at Sporting California USA NAVY · Sat Nov 14 vs SDSC Surf Blue See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | San Diego Surf Blue | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | +11 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | +0.09 | -0.17 | 99% | 1.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Legends FC Gold · Sun Nov 8 at Sporting California USA NAVY · Sun Nov 15 at Sporting California USA RED See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | CDA Slammers FC White | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 9 | 2.25 | WWLW | -0.01 | -0.10 | 51% | 4.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at Legends FC Black · Sun Oct 25 at Eagles SC · Sun Nov 1 at Legends FC Gold See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | LAFC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 3 | +18 | 13 | 2.17 | WWWLD | -0.12 | -0.10 | 93% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Diego Surf White · Sun Nov 8 vs West Coast FC Navy · Sun Nov 15 at Pateadores Gold See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Pateadores Blue | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 10 | 2.00 | WWLDW | -0.53 | +0.10 | 39% | 5.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting California USA NAVY · Sun Nov 1 vs Pateadores Gold · Sun Nov 8 vs CDA Slammers FC Maroon See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | CDA Slammers FC Maroon | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 9 | 1.80 | WWLWL | +0.33 | -0.16 | 8% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Pateadores Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Rebels SC · Sun Nov 8 at Pateadores Blue See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Pateadores Gold | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 8 | 1.60 | DDLWW | -0.93 | +0.29 | 4% | 8.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs CDA Slammers FC Maroon · Sun Nov 1 at Pateadores Blue · Sun Nov 8 at Eagles SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Rebels SC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | +0 | 7 | 1.40 | WWLLD | -0.33 | +0.16 | 1% | 11.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Sporting California USA RED · Sun Nov 1 at CDA Slammers FC Maroon · Sun Nov 8 vs Legends FC Gold See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Legends FC Black | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 5 | 1.25 | LDWD | +0.79 | -0.31 | 12% | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Legends FC Gold · Sun Oct 11 vs CDA Slammers FC White · Sun Oct 25 vs West Coast FC Navy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Beach Futbol Club Gold | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 5 | 1.25 | DWDL | +0.69 | -0.25 | 3% | 8.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs SDSC Surf Gold · Sun Nov 1 at West Coast FC Navy · Sun Nov 8 vs SDSC Surf Blue See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | SDSC Surf Blue | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4 | 1.00 | LWLD | +0.33 | -0.13 | 2% | 9.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at LV Heat Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting California USA RED · Sun Nov 8 at Beach Futbol Club Gold See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | West Coast FC Navy | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 | 1.00 | DLWL | -0.40 | +0.14 | 0% | 12.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Legends FC Black · Sun Nov 1 vs Beach Futbol Club Gold · Sun Nov 8 at LAFC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Sporting California USA RED | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | +0.59 | -0.07 | 0% | 13.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Rebels SC · Sun Nov 1 at SDSC Surf Blue · Sun Nov 8 at CDA Slammers FC White See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | SDSC Surf Gold | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4 | 1.00 | DLWL | -0.66 | +0.30 | 0% | 15.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs Legends FC Gold · Sun Oct 25 at Beach Futbol Club Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Eagles SC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Eagles SC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 3 | 0.75 | LLWL | +0.94 | -0.29 | 0% | 11.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Sporting California USA NAVY · Sun Oct 25 vs CDA Slammers FC White · Sun Nov 1 at SDSC Surf Gold See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | LV Heat Surf | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 24 | -21 | 3 | 0.43 | LLWLL | +0.53 | -0.21 | 0% | 16.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs SDSC Surf Blue · Sun Nov 15 vs West Coast FC Navy · Sun Nov 22 vs Beach Futbol Club Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Legends FC Gold | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.43 | -0.02 | 0% | 15.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Legends FC Black · Sun Oct 11 at SDSC Surf Gold · Sat Oct 31 at San Diego Surf Blue See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Sporting California USA NAVY | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.12 | +0.09 | 0% | 16.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Eagles SC · Sun Oct 25 at Pateadores Blue · Sun Nov 1 vs San Diego Surf White See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.00 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.