Legends FC Gold
ECNL Regional League Boys · Southwest BU13 · 18 teams · Legends FC (CA) (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 01:00 PM
Surf Sports Park, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–3 (expected goals 0.5 for, 3.0 against · 0.19 expected points)
| Season so far | Legends FC Gold | San Diego Surf Blue |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 17th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-3 | 5-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.3 | 2.2 |
| Goals against / game | 3.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 5 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L | W W W W W |
| Biggest win | — | 4–0 at CDA Slammers FC Maroon |
| Worst loss | 1–5 at SDSC Surf Blue | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.25 | +1.45 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.43 | +0.09 |
Game plan
-
Hard to break down
San Diego Surf Blue concede only 0.0/game with 5 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at West Coast FC Navy, 0–2 vs San Diego Surf White.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 3%; a draw (9%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
They arrive in form
San Diego Surf Blue have won 5 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
-
Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Surf Sports Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
-
What a win does
LV Heat Surf sit 16th on 0.43 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above LV Heat Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the San Diego Surf Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Legends FC Gold – San Diego Surf Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
17th— holds | 17th— holds | 18th▼ down 1 |
| Win 0.75 PPG |
16th▲ up 1 | 15th▲ up 2 | 16th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.25 PPG |
17th— holds | 17th— holds | 18th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
17th— holds | 17th— holds | 18th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–3 loss we stay 17th even if every rival loses, and as low as 18th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th <1%
- 8th <1%
- 9th <1%
- 10th <1%
- 11th 1%
- 12th 1%
- 13th 4%
- 14th 11%
- 15th 24%
- 16th 22%
- 17th 21%
- 18th 16%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.47 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Diego Surf White | 3.00 (+3.00) | 3rd (2.23) | 51 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection |
| 2 | San Diego Surf Blue | 3.00 (+3.00) | 1st (2.50) | 51 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | CDA Slammers FC White | 2.25 (+2.25) | 4th (1.97) | 39 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection |
| 4 | LAFC | 2.17 (+2.17) | 2nd (2.27) | 37 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection |
| 5 | Pateadores Blue | 2.00 (+2.00) | 5th (1.89) | 34 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 6 | CDA Slammers FC Maroon | 1.80 (+1.80) | 7th (1.61) | 31 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 7 | Pateadores Gold | 1.60 (+1.60) | 8th (1.54) | 28 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 8 | Rebels SC | 1.40 (+1.40) | 11th (1.27) | 24 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 9 | Legends FC Black | 1.25 (+1.25) | 6th (1.69) | 22 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 10 | Beach Futbol Club Gold | 1.25 (+1.25) | 9th (1.53) | 22 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 11 | SDSC Surf Blue | 1.00 (+1.00) | 10th (1.41) | 17 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 12 | West Coast FC Navy | 1.00 (+1.00) | 13th (1.06) | 17 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 13 | Sporting California USA RED | 1.00 (+1.00) | 14th (1.03) | 17 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 14 | SDSC Surf Gold | 1.00 (+1.00) | 15th (0.67) | 17 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection |
| 15 | Eagles SC | 0.75 (+0.75) | 12th (1.22) | Win next game |
| 16 | LV Heat Surf | 0.43 (+0.43) | 17th (0.51) | A point next game |
How the results connect
7 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Legends FC Gold to San Diego Surf Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.02 · 8th hardest of 18
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 4 01:00 PM no score posted |
Legends FC Black 9th · 1-2-1 · GD +2 |
Home Silverlakes Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
0–2 | 0.64 | 0.16 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 11 11:00 AM no score posted |
SDSC Surf Gold 14th · 1-1-2 · GD -11 |
Away far trip
Ryan Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
2–2 | 1.22 | 0.37 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
San Diego Surf Blue 2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
0–3 | 0.19 | 0.34 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 01:00 PM |
CDA Slammers FC White 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +8 |
Home Silverlakes Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.40 | 0.35 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 04:30 PM |
Rebels SC 8th · 2-1-2 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
El Cajon Valley High School · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.67 | 0.39 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 07:00 PM |
Pateadores Blue 5th · 3-1-1 · GD +10 |
Home Silverlakes Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.40 | 0.39 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 09:00 AM |
Pateadores Gold 7th · 2-2-1 · GD +6 |
Home Silverlakes Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–2 | 0.59 | 0.41 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Beach Futbol Club Gold 10th · 1-2-1 · GD +1 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–2 | 0.51 | 0.42 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 01:00 PM |
CDA Slammers FC Maroon 6th · 3-0-2 · GD +1 |
Home Silverlakes Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.75 | 0.45 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Sporting California USA NAVY 18th · 0-0-4 · GD -15 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
2–2 | 1.36 | 0.52 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 11:00 AM |
LV Heat Surf 16th · 1-0-6 · GD -21 |
Home Silverlakes Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
1–1 | 1.91 | 0.62 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
LAFC 4th · 4-1-1 · GD +18 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–3 | 0.13 | 0.58 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 01:00 PM |
Sporting California USA RED 13th · 1-0-2 · GD -8 |
Home Silverlakes Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
2–2 | 1.18 | 0.62 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 09:00 AM |
Eagles SC 15th · 1-0-3 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Pleasant Valley Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.75 | 0.63 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Diego Surf White | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | +11 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.81 | +0.13 | 86% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at LAFC · Sun Nov 1 at Sporting California USA NAVY · Sat Nov 14 vs SDSC Surf Blue See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | San Diego Surf Blue | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | +11 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | +0.09 | -0.17 | 99% | 1.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Legends FC Gold · Sun Nov 8 at Sporting California USA NAVY · Sun Nov 15 at Sporting California USA RED See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | CDA Slammers FC White | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 9 | 2.25 | WWLW | -0.01 | -0.10 | 51% | 4.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at Legends FC Black · Sun Oct 25 at Eagles SC · Sun Nov 1 at Legends FC Gold See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | LAFC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 3 | +18 | 13 | 2.17 | WWWLD | -0.12 | -0.10 | 94% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Diego Surf White · Sun Nov 8 vs West Coast FC Navy · Sun Nov 15 at Pateadores Gold See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Pateadores Blue | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 10 | 2.00 | WWLDW | -0.53 | +0.10 | 40% | 5.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting California USA NAVY · Sun Nov 1 vs Pateadores Gold · Sun Nov 8 vs CDA Slammers FC Maroon See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | CDA Slammers FC Maroon | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 9 | 1.80 | WWLWL | +0.33 | -0.16 | 8% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Pateadores Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Rebels SC · Sun Nov 8 at Pateadores Blue See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Pateadores Gold | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 8 | 1.60 | DDLWW | -0.93 | +0.29 | 5% | 8.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs CDA Slammers FC Maroon · Sun Nov 1 at Pateadores Blue · Sun Nov 8 at Eagles SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Rebels SC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | +0 | 7 | 1.40 | WWLLD | -0.33 | +0.16 | 1% | 11.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Sporting California USA RED · Sun Nov 1 at CDA Slammers FC Maroon · Sun Nov 8 vs Legends FC Gold See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Legends FC Black | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 5 | 1.25 | LDWD | +0.79 | -0.31 | 13% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Legends FC Gold · Sun Oct 11 vs CDA Slammers FC White · Sun Oct 25 vs West Coast FC Navy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Beach Futbol Club Gold | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 5 | 1.25 | DWDL | +0.69 | -0.25 | 3% | 8.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs SDSC Surf Gold · Sun Nov 1 at West Coast FC Navy · Sun Nov 8 vs SDSC Surf Blue See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | SDSC Surf Blue | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4 | 1.00 | LWLD | +0.33 | -0.13 | 2% | 9.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at LV Heat Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting California USA RED · Sun Nov 8 at Beach Futbol Club Gold See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | West Coast FC Navy | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 | 1.00 | DLWL | -0.40 | +0.14 | 0% | 12.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Legends FC Black · Sun Nov 1 vs Beach Futbol Club Gold · Sun Nov 8 at LAFC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 13 | Sporting California USA RED | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | +0.59 | -0.07 | 0% | 13.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Rebels SC · Sun Nov 1 at SDSC Surf Blue · Sun Nov 8 at CDA Slammers FC White See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 14 | SDSC Surf Gold | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4 | 1.00 | DLWL | -0.66 | +0.30 | 0% | 15.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs Legends FC Gold · Sun Oct 25 at Beach Futbol Club Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Eagles SC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 15 | Eagles SC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 3 | 0.75 | LLWL | +0.94 | -0.29 | 0% | 11.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Sporting California USA NAVY · Sun Oct 25 vs CDA Slammers FC White · Sun Nov 1 at SDSC Surf Gold See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 16 | LV Heat Surf | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 24 | -21 | 3 | 0.43 | LLWLL | +0.53 | -0.21 | 0% | 16.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs SDSC Surf Blue · Sun Nov 15 vs West Coast FC Navy · Sun Nov 22 vs Beach Futbol Club Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 17 | Legends FC Gold | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.43 | -0.02 | 0% | 15.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Legends FC Black · Sun Oct 11 at SDSC Surf Gold · Sat Oct 31 at San Diego Surf Blue See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 18 | Sporting California USA NAVY | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.12 | +0.09 | 0% | 16.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Eagles SC · Sun Oct 25 at Pateadores Blue · Sun Nov 1 vs San Diego Surf White See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.00 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.