PSA Monmouth
ECNL Regional League Boys · North Atlantic BU13 · 14 teams · Princeton SA (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM
The Ranney School , Field 2 - Upper ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.5 for, 1.1 against · 1.63 expected points)
| Season so far | PSA Monmouth | Match Fit Surf |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 11th | 14th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-4 | 0-0-5 |
| Points per game | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals against / game | 2.4 | 3.4 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | W L L L L | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | 1–0 at PDA | — |
| Worst loss | 0–3 at Pipeline SC | 0–7 at SJEB FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.25 | -1.72 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.42 | +0.44 |
Common opponents: Pipeline SC — we 0–3; they 0–2.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
Match Fit Surf average 0.4 goals/game (league avg 2.1); blanked in 4 of 5.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Match Fit Surf concede 3.4/game; worst result 0–7 at SJEB FC.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–3 at Pipeline SC, 0–2 at Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals, 0–3 vs Potomac Soccer Association.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 46% / draw 25% / loss 29%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Confidence is low on their side
Match Fit Surf have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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What a win does
Baltimore Celtic sit 10th on 0.80 PPG; we are on 0.60.A point moves us above Baltimore Celtic on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Match Fit Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (PSA Monmouth – Match Fit Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 0.67 PPG |
11th— holds | 10th▲ up 1 | 13th▼ down 2 |
| Win 1.00 PPG |
9th▲ up 2 | 8th▲ up 3 | 12th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 0.67 PPG |
11th— holds | 10th▲ up 1 | 13th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 0.50 PPG |
11th— holds | 11th— holds | 14th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 9th if every rival drops points, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th <1%
- 8th 1%
- 9th 5%
- 10th 13%
- 11th 27%
- 12th 24%
- 13th 19%
- 14th 10%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 21 remaining known games (max 2.54 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maryland United FC | 3.00 (+2.40) | 1st (2.80) | 75 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 70 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | STA | 2.71 (+2.11) | 2nd (2.44) | 68 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 61 for their projection |
| 3 | Delaware FC | 2.17 (+1.57) | 4th (1.86) | 54 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection |
| 4 | Pipeline SC | 1.80 (+1.20) | 5th (1.85) | 44 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection |
| 5 | Potomac Soccer Association | 1.80 (+1.20) | 3rd (1.92) | 44 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection |
| 6 | World Class FC | 1.50 (+0.90) | 6th (1.73) | 36 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection |
| 7 | FC DELCO | 1.43 (+0.83) | 7th (1.49) | 35 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection |
| 8 | Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals | 1.00 (+0.40) | 9th (1.11) | Win next game |
| 9 | SJEB FC | 0.80 (+0.20) | 8th (1.14) | A point next game |
| 10 | Baltimore Celtic | 0.80 (+0.20) | 10th (1.03) | A point next game |
How the results connect
11 chains · 11 teams
Paths of results that link PSA Monmouth to Match Fit Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.10 · 1st hardest of 14
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
Match Fit Surf 14th · 0-0-5 · GD -15 |
Home The Ranney School |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.63 | 0.77 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 12:00 PM |
STA 2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +21 |
Away far trip
Central Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
0–3 | 0.14 | 0.68 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 01:00 PM |
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy 12th · 0-1-3 · GD -15 |
Home The Ranney School · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.53 | 0.79 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 TBD |
SJEB FC 9th · 1-1-3 · GD -7 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.79 | 0.79 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 10:00 AM |
World Class FC 6th · 1-0-1 · GD +2 |
Home The Ranney School · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–2 | 0.60 | 0.77 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 12:00 PM |
Maryland United FC 1st · 8-0-0 · GD +38 |
Home The Ranney School · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–4 | 0.08 | 0.71 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 28 12:00 PM |
FC DELCO 7th · 3-1-3 · GD -3 |
Home The Ranney School · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–1 | 0.87 | 0.72 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 5 12:00 PM |
Delaware FC 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +7 |
Home The Ranney School · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
0–2 | 0.54 | 0.71 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 19 TBD |
Baltimore Celtic 10th · 1-1-3 · GD -10 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.89 | 0.72 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 28 TBD |
Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals 8th · 1-2-2 · GD -6 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–1 | 1.12 | 0.75 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 TBD |
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy 12th · 0-1-3 · GD -15 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.27 | 0.78 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Potomac Soccer Association 5th · 3-0-2 · GD +4 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
0–2 | 0.36 | 0.75 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Pipeline SC 4th · 3-0-2 · GD +4 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–2 | 0.55 | 0.74 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 27 TBD |
PDA 13th · 0-0-3 · GD -10 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
1–1 | 1.58 | 0.79 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Match Fit Surf 14th · 0-0-5 · GD -15 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.40 | 0.82 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
FC DELCO 7th · 3-1-3 · GD -3 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
0–2 | 0.67 | 0.81 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
STA 2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +21 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–3 | 0.22 | 0.78 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
SJEB FC 9th · 1-1-3 · GD -7 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–2 | 1.03 | 0.79 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
World Class FC 6th · 1-0-1 · GD +2 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
0–2 | 0.42 | 0.78 | Upside |
| Sun May 16 TBD |
Maryland United FC 1st · 8-0-0 · GD +38 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–5 | 0.04 | 0.75 | Upside |
| Sat Jun 5 TBD |
Delaware FC 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +7 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
0–2 | 0.39 | 0.74 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Maryland United FC | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 7 | +38 | 24 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.30 | -0.37 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs PDA · Sun Nov 8 vs STA · Sat Nov 21 at PSA Monmouth See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | STA | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 6 | +21 | 19 | 2.71 | DWWWW | -0.43 | -0.15 | 100% | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs SJEB FC · Sun Nov 1 vs PSA Monmouth · Sat Nov 7 at Baltimore Celtic See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Delaware FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 13 | 2.17 | DWWWW | -0.44 | -0.08 | 53% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at World Class FC · Sat Oct 24 vs SJEB FC · Sun Oct 25 at Potomac Soccer Association See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Pipeline SC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 9 | 1.80 | WWWLL | +0.47 | -0.25 | 50% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs PDA · Sun Oct 25 at FC DELCO · Sat Oct 31 at Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Potomac Soccer Association | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 9 | 1.80 | LLWWW | +0.56 | -0.33 | 65% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Match Fit Surf · Sun Oct 25 vs Delaware FC · Sun Nov 1 at Baltimore Celtic See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | World Class FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 3 | 1.50 | WL | +0.34 | -0.15 | 29% | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Delaware FC · Sun Oct 4 vs Match Fit Surf · Sat Oct 24 vs Baltimore Celtic See all 24 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | FC DELCO | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 | 1.43 | DWLWL | +0.49 | -0.27 | 3% | 6.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Pipeline SC · Sun Nov 1 at PDA · Sat Nov 7 at SJEB FC See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 5 | 1.00 | DWLLD | +0.27 | -0.12 | 0% | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs World Class FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Pipeline SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Penn Fusion Soccer Academy See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | SJEB FC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 4 | 0.80 | DLLLW | +0.22 | -0.10 | 0% | 8.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Delaware FC · Sun Oct 25 at STA · Sun Nov 1 vs World Class FC See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Baltimore Celtic | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 4 | 0.80 | WLLLD | +0.36 | -0.10 | 0% | 9.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at World Class FC · Sun Oct 25 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Potomac Soccer Association See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | PSA Monmouth | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 3 | 0.60 | LLLLW | -0.42 | +0.10 | 0% | 11.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Match Fit Surf · Sun Nov 1 at STA · Sat Nov 7 vs Penn Fusion Soccer Academy See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Penn Fusion Soccer Academy | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 18 | -15 | 1 | 0.25 | LDLL | +1.32 | -0.19 | 0% | 12.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Baltimore Celtic · Sun Nov 1 at Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals · Sat Nov 7 at PSA Monmouth See all 22 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | PDA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 | -10 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.33 | -0.02 | 0% | 12.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pipeline SC · Sun Oct 25 at Maryland United FC · Sun Nov 1 vs FC DELCO See all 23 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Match Fit Surf | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 17 | -15 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.44 | -0.06 | 0% | 13.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at World Class FC · Sat Oct 24 at Potomac Soccer Association · Sun Oct 25 at PSA Monmouth See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.14 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.