TableChase Clubs

PSA Monmouth

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Atlantic BU13 · 14 teams · Princeton SA (all teams)

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11th
1-0-4 record · 5 played
0.60 points per game
-10 goal diff · 2–12
LLLLWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.6
-0.42 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM

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PSA Monmouth
11th · 0.60 PPG
vs
Match Fit Surf
14th · 0.00 PPG

The Ranney School , Field 2 - Upper ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.5 for, 1.1 against · 1.63 expected points)

Season so farPSA MonmouthMatch Fit Surf
Position11th14th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-40-0-5
Points per game0.600.00
Goals for / game0.40.4
Goals against / game2.43.4
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless34
Form (recent first)W L L L LL L L L L
Biggest win1–0 at PDA—
Worst loss0–3 at Pipeline SC0–7 at SJEB FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.25-1.72
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.42+0.44

Common opponents: Pipeline SC — we 0–3; they 0–2.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Match Fit Surf average 0.4 goals/game (league avg 2.1); blanked in 4 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Match Fit Surf concede 3.4/game; worst result 0–7 at SJEB FC.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–3 at Pipeline SC, 0–2 at Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals, 0–3 vs Potomac Soccer Association.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 46% / draw 25% / loss 29%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Match Fit Surf have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • What a win does
    Baltimore Celtic sit 10th on 0.80 PPG; we are on 0.60.

    A point moves us above Baltimore Celtic on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Match Fit Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (PSA Monmouth – Match Fit Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.67 PPG
11th— holds 10th▲ up 1 13th▼ down 2
Win
1.00 PPG
9th▲ up 2 8th▲ up 3 12th▼ down 1
Draw
0.67 PPG
11th— holds 10th▲ up 1 13th▼ down 2
Loss
0.50 PPG
11th— holds 11th— holds 14th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 9th if every rival drops points, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th 5%
  10. 10th 13%
  11. 11th 27%
  12. 12th 24%
  13. 13th 19%
  14. 14th 10%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 21 remaining known games (max 2.54 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Maryland United FC 3.00 (+2.40) 1st (2.80) 75 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 70 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 STA 2.71 (+2.11) 2nd (2.44) 68 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 61 for their projection
3 Delaware FC 2.17 (+1.57) 4th (1.86) 54 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection
4 Pipeline SC 1.80 (+1.20) 5th (1.85) 44 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection
5 Potomac Soccer Association 1.80 (+1.20) 3rd (1.92) 44 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection
6 World Class FC 1.50 (+0.90) 6th (1.73) 36 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
7 FC DELCO 1.43 (+0.83) 7th (1.49) 35 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
8 Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals 1.00 (+0.40) 9th (1.11) Win next game
9 SJEB FC 0.80 (+0.20) 8th (1.14) A point next game
10 Baltimore Celtic 0.80 (+0.20) 10th (1.03) A point next game

How the results connect

11 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link PSA Monmouth to Match Fit Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
7 favour them
-0.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–3 2–0 1–0 0–3 5–2 0–2 1–1 1–0 3–4 0–2 2–0 0–3 4–0 0–5 1–4 2–6 1–5 2–0 7–0 4–1 PSA Monmouth 11th Pipeline SC 4th PDA 13th Philadelphia Ukrain… 8th Potomac Soccer Asso… 5th Baltimore Celtic 10th STA 2nd Delaware FC 3rd FC DELCO 7th SJEB FC 9th Match Fit Surf 14th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

11 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 7th 14th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.10 · 1st hardest of 14

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
10:00 AM
Match Fit Surf
14th · 0-0-5 · GD -15
Home
The Ranney School
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
1–1 1.63 0.77 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
12:00 PM
STA
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +21
Away far trip
Central Park
●●●●● Very tough
3%
0–3 0.14 0.68 Upside
Sat Nov 7
01:00 PM
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy
12th · 0-1-3 · GD -15
Home
The Ranney School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
1–1 1.53 0.79 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
TBD
SJEB FC
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -7
Away
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–2 0.79 0.79 Upside
Sun Nov 15
10:00 AM
World Class FC
6th · 1-0-1 · GD +2
Home
The Ranney School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–2 0.60 0.77 Upside
Sat Nov 21
12:00 PM
Maryland United FC
1st · 8-0-0 · GD +38
Home
The Ranney School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
1%
0–4 0.08 0.71 Upside
Sat Nov 28
12:00 PM
FC DELCO
7th · 3-1-3 · GD -3
Home
The Ranney School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–1 0.87 0.72 Upside
Sat Dec 5
12:00 PM
Delaware FC
3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +7
Home
The Ranney School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
13%
0–2 0.54 0.71 Upside
Sat Dec 19
TBD
Baltimore Celtic
10th · 1-1-3 · GD -10
Away
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.89 0.72 Upside
Sun Feb 28
TBD
Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals
8th · 1-2-2 · GD -6
Home
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–1 1.12 0.75 Upside
Sun Mar 7
TBD
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy
12th · 0-1-3 · GD -15
Away
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.27 0.78 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD
Potomac Soccer Association
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +4
Away
●●●●● Very tough
8%
0–2 0.36 0.75 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD
Pipeline SC
4th · 3-0-2 · GD +4
Home
●●●●● Very tough
13%
1–2 0.55 0.74 Upside
Sat Mar 27
TBD
PDA
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
1–1 1.58 0.79 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Match Fit Surf
14th · 0-0-5 · GD -15
Away
●●●●○ Tough
38%
1–1 1.40 0.82 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD
FC DELCO
7th · 3-1-3 · GD -3
Away
●●●●● Very tough
16%
0–2 0.67 0.81 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD
STA
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +21
Home
●●●●● Very tough
4%
0–3 0.22 0.78 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD
SJEB FC
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -7
Home
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–2 1.03 0.79 Upside
Sun May 9
TBD
World Class FC
6th · 1-0-1 · GD +2
Away
●●●●● Very tough
10%
0–2 0.42 0.78 Upside
Sun May 16
TBD
Maryland United FC
1st · 8-0-0 · GD +38
Away
●●●●● Very tough
1%
0–5 0.04 0.75 Upside
Sat Jun 5
TBD
Delaware FC
3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +7
Away
●●●●● Very tough
8%
0–2 0.39 0.74 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Maryland United FC 8800 457+38 243.00 WWWWW -0.30 -0.37 100% 1.1
2 STA 7610 276+21 192.71 DWWWW -0.43 -0.15 100% 2.0
3 Delaware FC 6411 169+7 132.17 DWWWW -0.44 -0.08 53% 4.5
4 Pipeline SC 5302 139+4 91.80 WWWLL +0.47 -0.25 50% 4.6
5 Potomac Soccer Association 5302 139+4 91.80 LLWWW +0.56 -0.33 65% 4.2
6 World Class FC 2101 64+2 31.50 WL +0.34 -0.15 29% 5.3
7 FC DELCO 7313 1114-3 101.43 DWLWL +0.49 -0.27 3% 6.8
8 Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals 5122 511-6 51.00 DWLLD +0.27 -0.12 0% 9.0
9 SJEB FC 5113 916-7 40.80 DLLLW +0.22 -0.10 0% 8.9
10 Baltimore Celtic 5113 919-10 40.80 WLLLD +0.36 -0.10 0% 9.6
11 PSA Monmouth 5104 212-10 30.60 LLLLW -0.42 +0.10 0% 11.6
12 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy 4013 318-15 10.25 LDLL +1.32 -0.19 0% 12.0
13 PDA 3003 010-10 00.00 LLL +0.33 -0.02 0% 12.5
14 Match Fit Surf 5005 217-15 00.00 LLLLL +0.44 -0.06 0% 13.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.14 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.