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FC DELCO

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Atlantic BU13 · 14 teams · FC DELCO (all teams)

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7th
3-1-3 record · 7 played
1.43 points per game
-3 goal diff · 11–14
DWLWLlast 5
3% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.8
+0.49 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:00 PM

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FC DELCO
7th · 1.43 PPG
vs
Pipeline SC
4th · 1.80 PPG

Downingtown East High School, Upper Field ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.7 for, 2.1 against · 1.13 expected points)

Season so farFC DELCOPipeline SC
Position7th4th
Record (W-D-L)3-1-33-0-2
Points per game1.431.80
Goals for / game1.62.6
Goals against / game2.01.8
Clean sheets23
Held scoreless30
Form (recent first)L W L W DL L W W W
Biggest win6–2 at Baltimore Celtic3–0 vs PSA Monmouth
Worst loss0–5 vs Maryland United FC3–5 vs Maryland United FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.16+0.60
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.49+0.47

Common opponents: Match Fit Surf — we 2–0; they 2–0. STA — we 1–1; they 3–4. Maryland United FC — we 0–5; they 3–5.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–2 at Delaware FC, 0–5 vs Maryland United FC, 0–4 at Potomac Soccer Association.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 31%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    World Class FC sit 6th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.43.

    A point moves us above World Class FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Pipeline SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC DELCO – Pipeline SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.25 PPG
7th— holds 7th— holds 10th▼ down 3
Win
1.63 PPG
5th▲ up 2 7th— holds 7th— holds
Draw
1.38 PPG
7th— holds 7th— holds 9th▼ down 2
Loss
1.25 PPG
7th— holds 7th— holds 10th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–2 loss we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
3% top 4
97% below the top 4
6.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 3%
  5. 5th 8%
  6. 6th 20%
  7. 7th 50%
  8. 8th 14%
  9. 9th 4%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 2.58 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Maryland United FC 3.00 (+1.57) 1st (2.80) 68 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 63 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 STA 2.71 (+1.28) 2nd (2.44) 61 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 54 for their projection
3 Delaware FC 2.17 (+0.74) 4th (1.86) 47 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
4 Pipeline SC 1.80 (+0.37) 5th (1.85) 37 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
5 Potomac Soccer Association 1.80 (+0.37) 3rd (1.92) 37 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
6 World Class FC 1.50 (+0.07) 6th (1.73) A point next game

How the results connect

17 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link FC DELCO to Pipeline SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us
2 even
9 favour them
-1.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 0–2 1–1 4–3 0–5 5–3 2–5 2–0 2–0 0–3 6–2 0–5 0–6 9–0 0–2 0–4 2–3 4–1 0–2 2–5 FC DELCO 7th Match Fit Surf 14th STA 2nd Maryland United FC 1st Philadelphia Ukrain… 8th Baltimore Celtic 10th Potomac Soccer Asso… 5th Delaware FC 3rd PSA Monmouth 11th SJEB FC 9th Pipeline SC 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 7th 14th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.27 · 12th hardest of 14

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM
Pipeline SC
4th · 3-0-2 · GD +4
Home
Downingtown East High School
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–2 1.13 1.39 Upside
Sun Nov 1
10:00 AM
PDA
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Away far trip
PDA Soccer Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 2.03 1.46 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
10:00 AM
SJEB FC
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -7
Away far trip
Tuckahoe Farm
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
2–1 1.50 1.47 Swing game
Sat Nov 28
12:00 PM
PSA Monmouth
11th · 1-0-4 · GD -10
Away far trip
The Ranney School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
1–1 1.91 1.51 Swing game
Sun Dec 13
12:00 PM
World Class FC
6th · 1-0-1 · GD +2
Away far trip
Orangetown Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
25%
1–2 0.95 1.46 Upside
Sat Dec 19
11:15 AM
World Class FC
6th · 1-0-1 · GD +2
Home
Proving Grounds
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–2 1.23 1.44 Upside
Sun Mar 7
TBD
Baltimore Celtic
10th · 1-1-3 · GD -10
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 1.97 1.48 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
TBD
Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals
8th · 1-2-2 · GD -6
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
1–1 1.80 1.50 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
09:30 AM
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy
12th · 0-1-3 · GD -15
Home
Proving Grounds
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
2–1 2.28 1.55 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
TBD
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy
12th · 0-1-3 · GD -15
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.03 1.58 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Pipeline SC
4th · 3-0-2 · GD +4
Away
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.87 1.54 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD
Potomac Soccer Association
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +4
Home
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–2 1.07 1.51 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD
PSA Monmouth
11th · 1-0-4 · GD -10
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–0 2.13 1.55 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
TBD
PDA
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–0 2.25 1.58 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD
Delaware FC
3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +7
Home
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–2 1.10 1.56 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD
Match Fit Surf
14th · 0-0-5 · GD -15
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
2–1 2.10 1.58 Swing game
Sun May 9
TBD
STA
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +21
Away
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–3 0.38 1.53 Upside
Sun May 16
TBD
SJEB FC
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -7
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
2–1 1.80 1.54 Swing game
Sat Jun 5
TBD
Maryland United FC
1st · 8-0-0 · GD +38
Away
●●●●● Very tough
3%
0–4 0.16 1.49 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Maryland United FC 8800 457+38 243.00 WWWWW -0.30 -0.37 100% 1.1
2 STA 7610 276+21 192.71 DWWWW -0.43 -0.15 100% 2.0
3 Delaware FC 6411 169+7 132.17 DWWWW -0.44 -0.08 51% 4.5
4 Pipeline SC 5302 139+4 91.80 WWWLL +0.47 -0.25 50% 4.6
5 Potomac Soccer Association 5302 139+4 91.80 LLWWW +0.56 -0.33 65% 4.1
6 World Class FC 2101 64+2 31.50 WL +0.34 -0.15 31% 5.2
7 FC DELCO 7313 1114-3 101.43 DWLWL +0.49 -0.27 3% 6.8
8 Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals 5122 511-6 51.00 DWLLD +0.27 -0.12 0% 9.0
9 SJEB FC 5113 916-7 40.80 DLLLW +0.22 -0.10 0% 8.9
10 Baltimore Celtic 5113 919-10 40.80 WLLLD +0.36 -0.10 0% 9.6
11 PSA Monmouth 5104 212-10 30.60 LLLLW -0.42 +0.10 0% 11.7
12 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy 4013 318-15 10.25 LDLL +1.32 -0.19 0% 12.0
13 PDA 3003 010-10 00.00 LLL +0.33 -0.02 0% 12.5
14 Match Fit Surf 5005 217-15 00.00 LLLLL +0.44 -0.06 0% 12.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.14 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.