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Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Atlantic BU13 · 14 teams · Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (all teams)

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8th
1-2-2 record · 5 played
1.00 points per game
-6 goal diff · 5–11
DWLLDlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.0
+0.27 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:45 PM

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Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals
8th · 1.00 PPG
vs
World Class FC
6th · 1.50 PPG

Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center, Field 6 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.5 for, 2.3 against · 0.93 expected points)

Season so farPhiladelphia Ukrainian NationalsWorld Class FC
Position8th6th
Record (W-D-L)1-2-21-0-1
Points per game1.001.50
Goals for / game1.03.0
Goals against / game2.22.0
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)D L L W DL W
Biggest win2–0 vs PSA Monmouth6–0 at PDA
Worst loss0–6 at Maryland United FC0–4 at STA
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.66+0.43
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.27+0.34

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    World Class FC score 3.0/game — well above the league's 2.1.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–6 at Maryland United FC, 0–2 vs FC DELCO.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 24%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the World Class FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals – World Class FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.83 PPG
8th— holds 8th— holds 13th▼ down 5
Win
1.33 PPG
7th▲ up 1 7th▲ up 1 10th▼ down 2
Draw
1.00 PPG
8th— holds 8th— holds 11th▼ down 3
Loss
0.83 PPG
8th— holds 8th— holds 13th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
9.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th 2%
  7. 7th 8%
  8. 8th 28%
  9. 9th 29%
  10. 10th 21%
  11. 11th 7%
  12. 12th 3%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 21 remaining known games (max 2.62 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Maryland United FC 3.00 (+2.00) 1st (2.80) 73 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 68 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 STA 2.71 (+1.71) 2nd (2.44) 66 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 59 for their projection
3 Delaware FC 2.17 (+1.17) 4th (1.86) 52 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection
4 Pipeline SC 1.80 (+0.80) 5th (1.85) 42 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection
5 Potomac Soccer Association 1.80 (+0.80) 3rd (1.92) 42 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
6 World Class FC 1.50 (+0.50) 6th (1.73) 34 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
7 FC DELCO 1.43 (+0.43) 7th (1.49) 33 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection

How the results connect

2 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals to World Class FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 favour them
-0.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–2 1–1 4–0 2–0 1–0 0–6 Philadelphia Ukrain… 8th FC DELCO 7th PSA Monmouth 11th STA 2nd PDA 13th World Class FC 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 7th 14th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.12 · 7th hardest of 14

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
01:45 PM
World Class FC
6th · 1-0-1 · GD +2
Home
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.93 0.99 Upside
Sat Oct 31
10:00 AM
Pipeline SC
4th · 3-0-2 · GD +4
Home
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.85 0.97 Upside
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy
12th · 0-1-3 · GD -15
Home
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.97 1.09 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
12:00 PM
Potomac Soccer Association
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +4
Home
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–2 0.80 1.06 Upside
Sat Nov 14
10:00 AM
PDA
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Away far trip
PDA Soccer Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
1–1 1.74 1.13 Swing game
Sat Nov 28
11:00 AM
Match Fit Surf
14th · 0-0-5 · GD -15
Away far trip
Monmouth Regional High School
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
1–1 1.80 1.19 Swing game
Sat Dec 5
TBD
STA
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +21
Away
●●●●● Very tough
5%
0–3 0.25 1.11 Upside
Sun Dec 13
11:00 AM
SJEB FC
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -7
Home
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●●●●○ Tough
41%
1–1 1.46 1.14 Upside
Sun Feb 21
01:00 PM
SJEB FC
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -7
Away far trip
Camden Catholic High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–2 1.17 1.14 Upside
Sun Feb 28
TBD
PSA Monmouth
11th · 1-0-4 · GD -10
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
1–1 1.62 1.17 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
10:00 AM
Maryland United FC
1st · 8-0-0 · GD +38
Home
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●●●●● Very tough
3%
0–4 0.16 1.11 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD
FC DELCO
7th · 3-1-3 · GD -3
Away
●●●●○ Tough
25%
1–1 0.98 1.10 Upside
Sat Mar 27
12:00 PM
Baltimore Celtic
10th · 1-1-3 · GD -10
Home
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–1 1.62 1.13 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
TBD
World Class FC
6th · 1-0-1 · GD +2
Away
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–2 0.69 1.11 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy
12th · 0-1-3 · GD -15
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–1 1.70 1.14 Swing game
Sun May 2
TBD
Potomac Soccer Association
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +4
Away
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–2 0.59 1.11 Upside
Sun May 9
TBD
Pipeline SC
4th · 3-0-2 · GD +4
Away
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–2 0.63 1.09 Upside
Sat May 15
12:45 PM
Delaware FC
3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +7
Away far trip
Smith Estates · turf
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–2 0.62 1.07 Upside
Sun May 16
12:45 PM
PDA
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Home
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
1–1 1.98 1.11 Swing game
Sun May 23
09:00 AM
Match Fit Surf
14th · 0-0-5 · GD -15
Home
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 2.04 1.14 Swing game
Sat Jun 5
10:00 AM
STA
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +21
Home
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●●●●● Very tough
9%
0–3 0.38 1.11 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Maryland United FC 8800 457+38 243.00 WWWWW -0.30 -0.37 100% 1.0
2 STA 7610 276+21 192.71 DWWWW -0.43 -0.15 100% 2.0
3 Delaware FC 6411 169+7 132.17 DWWWW -0.44 -0.08 53% 4.5
4 Pipeline SC 5302 139+4 91.80 WWWLL +0.47 -0.25 49% 4.6
5 Potomac Soccer Association 5302 139+4 91.80 LLWWW +0.56 -0.33 66% 4.1
6 World Class FC 2101 64+2 31.50 WL +0.34 -0.15 29% 5.3
7 FC DELCO 7313 1114-3 101.43 DWLWL +0.49 -0.27 4% 6.8
8 Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals 5122 511-6 51.00 DWLLD +0.27 -0.12 0% 9.0
9 SJEB FC 5113 916-7 40.80 DLLLW +0.22 -0.10 0% 8.8
10 Baltimore Celtic 5113 919-10 40.80 WLLLD +0.36 -0.10 0% 9.6
11 PSA Monmouth 5104 212-10 30.60 LLLLW -0.42 +0.10 0% 11.7
12 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy 4013 318-15 10.25 LDLL +1.32 -0.19 0% 11.9
13 PDA 3003 010-10 00.00 LLL +0.33 -0.02 0% 12.6
14 Match Fit Surf 5005 217-15 00.00 LLLLL +0.44 -0.06 0% 12.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.14 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.