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SJEB FC

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Atlantic BU13 · 14 teams · SJEB FC (all teams)

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9th
1-1-3 record · 5 played
0.80 points per game
-7 goal diff · 9–16
DLLLWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.8
+0.22 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:30 AM

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SJEB FC
9th · 0.80 PPG
at
Delaware FC
3rd · 2.17 PPG

Smith Estates, Turf ↗ · turf far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.5 for, 3.2 against · 0.60 expected points)

Season so farSJEB FCDelaware FC
Position9th3rd
Record (W-D-L)1-1-34-1-1
Points per game0.802.17
Goals for / game1.82.7
Goals against / game3.21.5
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless20
Form (recent first)W L L L DW W W W D
Biggest win7–0 vs Match Fit Surf5–1 vs Baltimore Celtic
Worst loss0–9 at Maryland United FC2–5 vs Maryland United FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.69+0.63
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.22-0.44

Common opponents: Penn Fusion Soccer Academy — we 1–1; they 5–2. Maryland United FC — we 0–9; they 2–5. Match Fit Surf — we 7–0; they 1–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–9 at Maryland United FC, 0–2 vs Pipeline SC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 15%; a draw (15%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Delaware FC have won 4 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:30 AM at Smith Estates.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals sit 8th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.80.

    A point moves us above Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Delaware FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SJEB FC – Delaware FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.67 PPG
10th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 1 14th▼ down 5
Win
1.17 PPG
8th▲ up 1 8th▲ up 1 11th▼ down 2
Draw
0.83 PPG
9th— holds 8th▲ up 1 13th▼ down 4
Loss
0.67 PPG
10th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 1 14th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 9th even if every rival loses, and as low as 14th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
8.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 2%
  7. 7th 9%
  8. 8th 32%
  9. 9th 28%
  10. 10th 19%
  11. 11th 7%
  12. 12th 2%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 21 remaining known games (max 2.58 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Maryland United FC 3.00 (+2.20) 1st (2.80) 74 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 69 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 STA 2.71 (+1.91) 2nd (2.44) 67 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 60 for their projection
3 Delaware FC 2.17 (+1.37) 4th (1.86) 53 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
4 Pipeline SC 1.80 (+1.00) 5th (1.85) 43 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
5 Potomac Soccer Association 1.80 (+1.00) 3rd (1.92) 43 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection
6 World Class FC 1.50 (+0.70) 6th (1.73) 35 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection
7 FC DELCO 1.43 (+0.63) 7th (1.49) 34 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
8 Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals 1.00 (+0.20) 9th (1.11) A point next game

How the results connect

13 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link SJEB FC to Delaware FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
11 favour them
-2.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 2–5 7–0 0–1 0–9 5–2 1–4 2–3 4–0 0–2 0–2 2–0 3–5 0–2 6–0 1–1 0–7 5–0 SJEB FC 9th Penn Fusion Soccer … 12th Match Fit Surf 14th Maryland United FC 1st Potomac Soccer Asso… 5th Pipeline SC 4th FC DELCO 7th Philadelphia Ukrain… 8th Delaware FC 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 7th 14th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.10 · 6th hardest of 14

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:30 AM
Delaware FC
3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +7
Away far trip
Smith Estates · turf
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–3 0.60 0.77 Upside
Sun Oct 25
02:00 PM
STA
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +21
Away far trip
Central Park
●●●●● Very tough
5%
1–4 0.21 0.69 Upside
Sun Nov 1
10:00 AM
World Class FC
6th · 1-0-1 · GD +2
Home
Tuckahoe Farm
●●●●○ Tough
26%
2–2 0.96 0.72 Upside
Sat Nov 7
10:00 AM
FC DELCO
7th · 3-1-3 · GD -3
Home
Tuckahoe Farm
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–2 1.29 0.78 Upside
Sun Nov 8
TBD
PSA Monmouth
11th · 1-0-4 · GD -10
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 2.01 0.91 Swing game
Sun Dec 6
12:00 PM
PDA
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Away far trip
PDA Soccer Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–1 1.89 1.00 Swing game
Sat Dec 12
08:00 AM
Baltimore Celtic
10th · 1-1-3 · GD -10
Away far trip
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.41 1.03 Upside
Sun Dec 13
11:00 AM
Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals
8th · 1-2-2 · GD -6
Away far trip
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–1 1.33 1.05 Upside
Sun Feb 21
01:00 PM
Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals
8th · 1-2-2 · GD -6
Home
Camden Catholic High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–1 1.62 1.09 Swing game
Sun Feb 28
10:00 AM
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy
12th · 0-1-3 · GD -15
Home
Tuckahoe Farm
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
3–1 2.14 1.16 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
TBD
Potomac Soccer Association
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +4
Away
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–3 0.56 1.13 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD
Pipeline SC
4th · 3-0-2 · GD +4
Away
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–3 0.61 1.10 Upside
Sat Apr 10
10:00 AM
STA
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +21
Home
Tuckahoe Farm
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–3 0.34 1.05 Upside
Sat Apr 17
10:00 AM
PDA
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Home
Tuckahoe Farm
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.15 1.11 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
10:00 AM
Match Fit Surf
14th · 0-0-5 · GD -15
Home
Tuckahoe Farm
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
2–1 2.21 1.17 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
TBD
World Class FC
6th · 1-0-1 · GD +2
Away
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–3 0.68 1.14 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD
PSA Monmouth
11th · 1-0-4 · GD -10
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–1 1.75 1.17 Swing game
Sun May 9
TBD
Maryland United FC
1st · 8-0-0 · GD +38
Home
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–5 0.13 1.13 Upside
Sat May 15
10:00 AM
Baltimore Celtic
10th · 1-1-3 · GD -10
Home
Tuckahoe Farm
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
3–2 1.76 1.15 Swing game
Sun May 16
TBD
FC DELCO
7th · 3-1-3 · GD -3
Away
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–2 1.01 1.15 Upside
Sun May 23
02:00 PM
Delaware FC
3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +7
Home
Tuckahoe Farm
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.85 1.14 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Maryland United FC 8800 457+38 243.00 WWWWW -0.30 -0.37 100% 1.0
2 STA 7610 276+21 192.71 DWWWW -0.43 -0.15 100% 2.0
3 Delaware FC 6411 169+7 132.17 DWWWW -0.44 -0.08 53% 4.5
4 Pipeline SC 5302 139+4 91.80 WWWLL +0.47 -0.25 49% 4.6
5 Potomac Soccer Association 5302 139+4 91.80 LLWWW +0.56 -0.33 66% 4.1
6 World Class FC 2101 64+2 31.50 WL +0.34 -0.15 29% 5.3
7 FC DELCO 7313 1114-3 101.43 DWLWL +0.49 -0.27 4% 6.8
8 Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals 5122 511-6 51.00 DWLLD +0.27 -0.12 0% 9.0
9 SJEB FC 5113 916-7 40.80 DLLLW +0.22 -0.10 0% 8.8
10 Baltimore Celtic 5113 919-10 40.80 WLLLD +0.36 -0.10 0% 9.6
11 PSA Monmouth 5104 212-10 30.60 LLLLW -0.42 +0.10 0% 11.7
12 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy 4013 318-15 10.25 LDLL +1.32 -0.19 0% 11.9
13 PDA 3003 010-10 00.00 LLL +0.33 -0.02 0% 12.6
14 Match Fit Surf 5005 217-15 00.00 LLLLL +0.44 -0.06 0% 12.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.14 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.