South Valley Chivas
ECNL Regional League Boys · NorCal BU16 · 24 teams · South Valley Chivas (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM
Burton Middle School, Field 11v11 (ECNL RL) ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–5 (expected goals 0.6 for, 5.7 against · 0.04 expected points)
| Season so far | South Valley Chivas | South Valley United Soccer Club |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 24th | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-7 | 4-2-1 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.3 | 2.3 |
| Goals against / game | 6.7 | 1.1 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 5 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L L | W D D W L |
| Biggest win | — | 4–0 at Legends FC |
| Worst loss | 0–14 at East Bay United | 1–2 vs Albany Berkeley Soccer Club |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -4.08 | +0.93 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.52 | +0.66 |
Common opponents: East Bay United — we 0–14; they 2–1. Clovis Crossfire — we 0–9; they 1–1.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–8 at Stockton TLJ FC, 0–7 vs Union FC, 0–14 at East Bay United, 0–4 at Cent. California Soccer Alliance, 0–9 at Clovis Crossfire.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 1%; a draw (2%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
Solano Surf sit 23rd on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Solano Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the South Valley United Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (South Valley Chivas – South Valley United Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
24th— holds | 24th— holds | 24th— holds |
| Win 0.38 PPG |
22nd▲ up 2 | 23rd▲ up 1 | 24th— holds |
| Draw 0.13 PPG |
23rd▲ up 1 | 23rd▲ up 1 | 24th— holds |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
24th— holds | 24th— holds | 24th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–5 loss we stay 24th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th
- 14th
- 15th
- 16th
- 17th
- 18th
- 19th
- 20th
- 21st <1%
- 22nd <1%
- 23rd 11%
- 24th 88%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 1.69 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reno APEX Soccer Club | 2.43 (+2.43) | 1st (2.21) | 39 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Walnut Creek Surf | 2.43 (+2.43) | 3rd (2.17) | 39 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Albany Berkeley Soccer Club | 2.29 (+2.29) | 4th (2.11) | 37 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Central Valley Premier FC -RL | 2.29 (+2.29) | 9th (1.73) | 37 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Clovis Crossfire | 2.14 (+2.14) | 2nd (2.18) | 35 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | Stockton TLJ FC | 2.00 (+2.00) | 5th (2.03) | 32 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 7 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 2.00 (+2.00) | 6th (1.92) | 32 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 8 | Diablo Valley Futbol Club | 2.00 (+2.00) | 7th (1.92) | 32 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 9 | Cent. California Soccer Alliance | 1.86 (+1.86) | 8th (1.88) | 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 10 | Sheriffs FC | 1.86 (+1.86) | 13th (1.53) | 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 11 | SF United FC | 1.57 (+1.57) | 10th (1.64) | 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 12 | FC Fresno Academy | 1.57 (+1.57) | 11th (1.57) | 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 13 | Vacaville United Soccer Club | 1.57 (+1.57) | 15th (1.49) | 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 14 | East Bay United | 1.29 (+1.29) | 14th (1.50) | 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 15 | Union FC | 1.14 (+1.14) | 12th (1.53) | 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 16 | Turlock Academica Jrs | 1.14 (+1.14) | 16th (1.37) | 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 17 | San Ramon FC -RL | 1.14 (+1.14) | 17th (1.20) | 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 18 | Dnamo FC Delta | 0.86 (+0.86) | 18th (1.06) | 14 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 19 | East County Revolution FC | 0.71 (+0.71) | 21st (0.56) | 12 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection |
| 20 | Stanford Strikers | 0.57 (+0.57) | 20th (0.57) | 10 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection |
| 21 | Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL | 0.43 (+0.43) | 19th (0.66) | 7 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection |
| 22 | Legends FC | 0.14 (+0.14) | 22nd (0.51) | A point next game |
| 23 | Solano Surf | 0.00 (+0.00) | 23rd (0.33) | Already ahead |
How the results connect
17 chains · 13 teams
Paths of results that link South Valley Chivas to South Valley United Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.30 · 5th hardest of 24
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 10:00 AM |
South Valley United Soccer Club 7th · 4-2-1 · GD +8 |
Home Burton Middle School |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–5 | 0.04 | 0.00 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM |
FC Fresno Academy 12th · 3-2-2 · GD +4 |
Home Burton Middle School |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–4 | 0.08 | 0.01 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 04:00 PM |
Central Valley Premier FC -RL 4th · 5-1-1 · GD +8 |
Home Riverway Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–6 | 0.04 | 0.02 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 02:00 PM |
Solano Surf 23rd · 0-0-7 · GD -23 |
Away far trip
Octo Inn Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.82 | 0.09 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Albany Berkeley Soccer Club 3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +12 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–5 | 0.03 | 0.08 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 10:00 AM |
San Ramon FC -RL 17th · 2-2-3 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
San Ramon Sports Park - Tiffany Roberts |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–4 | 0.11 | 0.09 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Turlock Academica Jrs 16th · 2-2-3 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
0–4 | 0.14 | 0.09 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 11:00 AM |
Diablo Valley Futbol Club 8th · 4-2-1 · GD +7 |
Away far trip
Marathon/Tesoro Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–5 | 0.03 | 0.09 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Reno APEX Soccer Club 1st · 5-2-0 · GD +14 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–6 | 0.02 | 0.08 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Reno APEX Soccer Club | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 17 | 2.43 | WDWWW | -0.12 | -0.13 | 77% | 3.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs East County Revolution FC · Sat Oct 31 at Clovis Crossfire · Sat Nov 7 vs Vacaville United Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Walnut Creek Surf | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 17 | 2.43 | WWDWW | +0.06 | -0.10 | 65% | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Stockton TLJ FC · Sat Oct 31 at Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Nov 7 vs San Ramon FC -RL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Albany Berkeley Soccer Club | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 5 | +12 | 16 | 2.29 | WWWWW | -0.30 | -0.20 | 55% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Dnamo FC Delta · Sat Oct 31 vs Vacaville United Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 vs Sheriffs FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Central Valley Premier FC -RL | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 16 | 2.29 | WLWWW | -0.22 | +0.53 | 8% | 9.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Oct 31 at South Valley United Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at South Valley Chivas See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Clovis Crossfire | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 2 | +23 | 15 | 2.14 | WWWDW | -0.83 | +0.44 | 74% | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL · Sat Oct 31 vs Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 vs Stockton TLJ FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Stockton TLJ FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 6 | +15 | 14 | 2.00 | WWWDL | -0.21 | -0.13 | 45% | 5.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Nov 7 at Clovis Crossfire See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 14 | 2.00 | LWDDW | +0.66 | -0.44 | 23% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Oct 31 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sat Nov 7 at Solano Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Diablo Valley Futbol Club | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 14 | 2.00 | WDLDW | +0.05 | -0.57 | 22% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sat Oct 31 at Stockton TLJ FC · Sat Nov 7 at FC Fresno Academy See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Cent. California Soccer Alliance | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 24 | 6 | +18 | 13 | 1.86 | DDDWW | -0.76 | +0.47 | 25% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at San Ramon FC -RL · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Turlock Academica Jrs See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Sheriffs FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 13 | 1.86 | LWWWL | -0.61 | +0.58 | 1% | 12.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Union FC · Sat Oct 31 vs San Ramon FC -RL · Sat Nov 7 at Albany Berkeley Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | SF United FC | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 11 | 1.57 | WLLDW | +0.18 | +0.22 | 3% | 11.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Oct 31 vs Union FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Stanford Strikers See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | FC Fresno Academy | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 11 | 1.57 | DLDWW | -0.10 | -0.11 | 1% | 11.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Stanford Strikers · Sat Oct 31 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Nov 7 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Vacaville United Soccer Club | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 11 | 1.57 | DLDWL | +0.31 | +0.18 | 1% | 13.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs East Bay United · Sat Oct 31 at Albany Berkeley Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at Reno APEX Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | East Bay United | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 14 | +12 | 9 | 1.29 | LWWLW | -0.55 | +0.22 | 1% | 12.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Vacaville United Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 at Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL · Sat Nov 7 at Legends FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Union FC | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 8 | 1.14 | DWWLL | -0.30 | -0.20 | 1% | 12.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sheriffs FC · Sat Oct 31 at SF United FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Dnamo FC Delta See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Turlock Academica Jrs | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 12 | +0 | 8 | 1.14 | LDLDL | +0.16 | -0.52 | 0% | 14.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at SF United FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Nov 7 at Cent. California Soccer Alliance See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | San Ramon FC -RL | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 8 | 1.14 | LDWDW | -0.54 | -0.13 | 0% | 16.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cent. California Soccer Alliance · Sat Oct 31 at Sheriffs FC · Sat Nov 7 at Walnut Creek Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Dnamo FC Delta | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 6 | 0.86 | WWLLL | +0.66 | -0.05 | 0% | 17.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Albany Berkeley Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs Stanford Strikers · Sat Nov 7 at Union FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | East County Revolution FC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 34 | -27 | 5 | 0.71 | LDLDL | +0.17 | +0.30 | 0% | 20.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs Solano Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 20 | Stanford Strikers | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 17 | -14 | 4 | 0.57 | WLLLL | +0.20 | +0.30 | 0% | 20.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Fresno Academy · Sat Oct 31 at Dnamo FC Delta · Sat Nov 7 at SF United FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 21 | Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 3 | 0.43 | LLLLL | +0.17 | -0.26 | 0% | 20.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Clovis Crossfire · Sat Oct 31 vs East Bay United · Sat Nov 7 at East County Revolution FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 22 | Legends FC | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 21 | -18 | 1 | 0.14 | LLLDL | +0.88 | -0.21 | 0% | 21.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Solano Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Cent. California Soccer Alliance · Sat Nov 7 vs East Bay United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 23 | Solano Surf | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 24 | -23 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.47 | -0.52 | 0% | 22.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC · Sat Oct 31 at East County Revolution FC · Sat Nov 7 vs South Valley United Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 24 | South Valley Chivas | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 47 | -45 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.52 | +0.30 | 0% | 23.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Valley United Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Fresno Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.87 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.