TableChase Clubs

East County Revolution FC

ECNL Regional League Boys · NorCal BU16 · 24 teams · Revolution FC (all teams)

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19th
1-2-4 record · 7 played
0.71 points per game
-27 goal diff · 7–34
LDLDLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 20.8
+0.17 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:30 AM

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East County Revolution FC
19th · 0.71 PPG
at
Reno APEX Soccer Club
1st · 2.43 PPG

Lyman Gilmore 11v11, Soccer Field ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–5 (expected goals 0.7 for, 5.6 against · 0.05 expected points)

Season so farEast County Revolution FCReno APEX Soccer Club
Position19th1st
Record (W-D-L)1-2-45-2-0
Points per game0.712.43
Goals for / game1.02.7
Goals against / game4.90.7
Clean sheets03
Held scoreless30
Form (recent first)L D L D LW W W D W
Biggest win3–1 at South Valley Chivas5–0 at Solano Surf
Worst loss1–12 at Cent. California Soccer Alliance—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.62+1.37
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.17-0.12

Common opponents: Turlock Academica Jrs — we 1–1; they 1–0. San Ramon FC -RL — we 2–2; they 3–2. Cent. California Soccer Alliance — we 1–12; they 1–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Reno APEX Soccer Club score 2.7/game — well above the league's 1.9.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Reno APEX Soccer Club concede only 0.7/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–5 vs Sheriffs FC, 0–9 vs Clovis Crossfire, 0–4 vs Albany Berkeley Soccer Club.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 1%; a draw (2%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Reno APEX Soccer Club have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:30 AM at Lyman Gilmore 11v11.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Dnamo FC Delta sit 18th on 0.86 PPG; we are on 0.71.

    A point moves us above Dnamo FC Delta on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Reno APEX Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (East County Revolution FC – Reno APEX Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.63 PPG
19th— holds 19th— holds 21st▼ down 2
Win
1.00 PPG
18th▲ up 1 18th▲ up 1 19th— holds
Draw
0.75 PPG
19th— holds 19th— holds 21st▼ down 2
Loss
0.63 PPG
19th— holds 19th— holds 21st▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–5 loss we stay 19th even if every rival loses, and as low as 21st if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
20.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th <1%
  18. 18th 1%
  19. 19th 14%
  20. 20th 25%
  21. 21st 29%
  22. 22nd 20%
  23. 23rd 10%
  24. 24th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Reno APEX Soccer Club 2.43 (+1.72) 1st (2.21) 34 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Walnut Creek Surf 2.43 (+1.72) 3rd (2.17) 34 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Albany Berkeley Soccer Club 2.29 (+1.58) 4th (2.11) 32 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Central Valley Premier FC -RL 2.29 (+1.58) 9th (1.73) 32 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
5 Clovis Crossfire 2.14 (+1.43) 2nd (2.18) 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Stockton TLJ FC 2.00 (+1.29) 5th (2.03) 27 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 South Valley United Soccer Club 2.00 (+1.29) 6th (1.92) 27 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
8 Diablo Valley Futbol Club 2.00 (+1.29) 7th (1.92) 27 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
9 Cent. California Soccer Alliance 1.86 (+1.15) 8th (1.88) 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
10 Sheriffs FC 1.86 (+1.15) 13th (1.53) 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
11 SF United FC 1.57 (+0.86) 10th (1.64) 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
12 FC Fresno Academy 1.57 (+0.86) 11th (1.57) 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
13 Vacaville United Soccer Club 1.57 (+0.86) 15th (1.49) 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
14 East Bay United 1.29 (+0.58) 14th (1.50) 16 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
15 Union FC 1.14 (+0.43) 12th (1.53) 14 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
16 Turlock Academica Jrs 1.14 (+0.43) 16th (1.37) 14 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
17 San Ramon FC -RL 1.14 (+0.43) 17th (1.20) 14 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
18 Dnamo FC Delta 0.86 (+0.15) 18th (1.06) A point next game

How the results connect

14 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link East County Revolution FC to Reno APEX Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 even
12 favour them
-4.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–2 2–3 1–1 0–1 1–12 1–1 2–2 1–1 2–0 1–4 5–2 3–1 0–4 0–4 1–1 0–2 0–8 0–5 0–0 East County Revolut… 19th San Ramon FC -RL 17th Turlock Academica J… 16th Cent. California So… 9th South Valley Chivas 24th Albany Berkeley Soc… 3rd Sheriffs FC 10th Stockton TLJ FC 6th Stanford Strikers 20th Reno APEX Soccer Cl… 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 12th 24th Aug 15 Aug 22 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.30 · 7th hardest of 24

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:30 AM
Reno APEX Soccer Club
1st · 5-2-0 · GD +14
Away far trip
Lyman Gilmore 11v11
●●●●● Very tough
1%
0–5 0.05 0.63 Upside
Sat Oct 31
10:30 AM
Solano Surf
23rd · 0-0-7 · GD -23
Home
Sunset Sports Complex (SSC)
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–1 1.83 0.76 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
10:30 AM
Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL
21st · 1-0-6 · GD -15
Home
Sunset Sports Complex (SSC)
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–2 1.19 0.81 Upside
Sat Mar 13
01:00 PM
Diablo Valley Futbol Club
8th · 4-2-1 · GD +7
Away
Marathon/Tesoro Fields
●●●●● Very tough
3%
0–4 0.13 0.75 Upside
Sat Apr 3
04:00 PM
South Valley United Soccer Club
7th · 4-2-1 · GD +8
Away far trip
Neighborhood Church
●●●●● Very tough
2%
0–5 0.09 0.69 Upside
Sat Apr 10
10:35 AM
Union FC
15th · 2-2-3 · GD +7
Away far trip
Larchmont Community Park
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–4 0.13 0.65 Upside
Sat Apr 17
10:30 AM
Stockton TLJ FC
6th · 4-2-1 · GD +15
Home
Sunset Sports Complex (SSC)
●●●●● Very tough
2%
0–5 0.10 0.61 Upside
Sun Apr 25
10:30 AM
Vacaville United Soccer Club
13th · 3-2-2 · GD +2
Home
Sunset Sports Complex (SSC)
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–3 0.34 0.59 Upside
Sat May 1
10:30 AM
Walnut Creek Surf
2nd · 5-2-0 · GD +11
Home
Sunset Sports Complex (SSC)
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–4 0.13 0.56 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Reno APEX Soccer Club 7520 195+14 172.43 WDWWW -0.12 -0.13 75% 3.2
2 Walnut Creek Surf 7520 198+11 172.43 WWDWW +0.06 -0.10 65% 3.9
3 Albany Berkeley Soccer Club 7511 175+12 162.29 WWWWW -0.30 -0.20 57% 4.4
4 Central Valley Premier FC -RL 7511 1911+8 162.29 WLWWW -0.22 +0.53 8% 9.6
5 Clovis Crossfire 7430 252+23 152.14 WWWDW -0.83 +0.44 74% 3.3
6 Stockton TLJ FC 7421 216+15 142.00 WWWDL -0.21 -0.13 44% 5.1
7 South Valley United Soccer Club 7421 168+8 142.00 LWDDW +0.66 -0.44 24% 6.7
8 Diablo Valley Futbol Club 7421 158+7 142.00 WDLDW +0.05 -0.57 22% 7.0
9 Cent. California Soccer Alliance 7340 246+18 131.86 DDDWW -0.76 +0.47 24% 7.1
10 Sheriffs FC 7412 117+4 131.86 LWWWL -0.61 +0.58 1% 12.6
11 SF United FC 7322 136+7 111.57 WLLDW +0.18 +0.22 3% 10.9
12 FC Fresno Academy 7322 1410+4 111.57 DLDWW -0.10 -0.11 1% 11.9
13 Vacaville United Soccer Club 7322 1210+2 111.57 DLDWL +0.31 +0.18 1% 13.0
14 East Bay United 7304 2614+12 91.29 LWWLW -0.55 +0.22 1% 12.3
15 Union FC 7223 169+7 81.14 DWWLL -0.30 -0.20 1% 12.0
16 Turlock Academica Jrs 7223 1212+0 81.14 LDLDL +0.16 -0.52 0% 14.4
17 San Ramon FC -RL 7223 1113-2 81.14 LDWDW -0.54 -0.13 0% 16.3
18 Dnamo FC Delta 7205 1018-8 60.86 WWLLL +0.66 -0.05 0% 17.4
19 East County Revolution FC 7124 734-27 50.71 LDLDL +0.17 +0.30 0% 20.8
20 Stanford Strikers 7115 317-14 40.57 WLLLL +0.20 +0.30 0% 20.6
21 Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL 7106 621-15 30.43 LLLLL +0.17 -0.26 0% 19.9
22 Legends FC 7016 321-18 10.14 LLLDL +0.88 -0.21 0% 21.0
23 Solano Surf 7007 124-23 00.00 LLLLL +0.47 -0.52 0% 22.5
24 South Valley Chivas 7007 247-45 00.00 LLLLL +0.52 +0.30 0% 23.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.87 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.