Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL
ECNL Regional League Boys · NorCal BU16 · 24 teams · Livermore Fusion SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM
Clovis North High School, Field 2 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–4 (expected goals 0.5 for, 4.3 against · 0.08 expected points)
| Season so far | Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL | Clovis Crossfire |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 21st | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-6 | 4-3-0 |
| Points per game | 0.43 | 2.14 |
| Goals for / game | 0.9 | 3.6 |
| Goals against / game | 3.0 | 0.3 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 5 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L L | W D W W W |
| Biggest win | 2–1 vs South Valley Chivas | 9–0 at East County Revolution FC |
| Worst loss | 0–5 vs SF United FC | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.43 | +2.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.17 | -0.83 |
Common opponents: South Valley Chivas — we 2–1; they 9–0. Diablo Valley Futbol Club — we 1–2; they 1–0. SF United FC — we 0–5; they 0–0.
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
Clovis Crossfire score 3.6/game — well above the league's 1.9.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
Clovis Crossfire concede only 0.3/game with 5 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–5 vs SF United FC, 0–1 vs San Ramon FC -RL.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 1%; a draw (4%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 02:00 PM at Clovis North High School.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Stanford Strikers sit 20th on 0.57 PPG; we are on 0.43.A point moves us above Stanford Strikers on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Clovis Crossfire game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL – Clovis Crossfire) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.38 PPG |
21st— holds | 22nd▼ down 1 | 22nd▼ down 1 |
| Win 0.75 PPG |
19th▲ up 2 | 19th▲ up 2 | 21st— holds |
| Draw 0.50 PPG |
21st— holds | 20th▲ up 1 | 21st— holds |
| Loss 0.38 PPG |
21st— holds | 22nd▼ down 1 | 22nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–4 loss we stay 21st even if every rival loses, and as low as 22nd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th <1%
- 14th <1%
- 15th <1%
- 16th 1%
- 17th 1%
- 18th 8%
- 19th 36%
- 20th 22%
- 21st 15%
- 22nd 12%
- 23rd 5%
- 24th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 1.88 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reno APEX Soccer Club | 2.43 (+2.00) | 1st (2.21) | 36 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Walnut Creek Surf | 2.43 (+2.00) | 3rd (2.17) | 36 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Albany Berkeley Soccer Club | 2.29 (+1.86) | 4th (2.11) | 34 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Central Valley Premier FC -RL | 2.29 (+1.86) | 9th (1.73) | 34 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 5 | Clovis Crossfire | 2.14 (+1.71) | 2nd (2.18) | 32 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | Stockton TLJ FC | 2.00 (+1.57) | 5th (2.03) | 29 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 7 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 2.00 (+1.57) | 6th (1.92) | 29 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 8 | Diablo Valley Futbol Club | 2.00 (+1.57) | 7th (1.92) | 29 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 9 | Cent. California Soccer Alliance | 1.86 (+1.43) | 8th (1.88) | 27 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 10 | Sheriffs FC | 1.86 (+1.43) | 13th (1.53) | 27 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 11 | SF United FC | 1.57 (+1.14) | 10th (1.64) | 23 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 12 | FC Fresno Academy | 1.57 (+1.14) | 11th (1.57) | 23 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 13 | Vacaville United Soccer Club | 1.57 (+1.14) | 15th (1.49) | 23 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 14 | East Bay United | 1.29 (+0.86) | 14th (1.50) | 18 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 15 | Union FC | 1.14 (+0.71) | 12th (1.53) | 16 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 16 | Turlock Academica Jrs | 1.14 (+0.71) | 16th (1.37) | 16 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 17 | San Ramon FC -RL | 1.14 (+0.71) | 17th (1.20) | 16 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 18 | Dnamo FC Delta | 0.86 (+0.43) | 18th (1.06) | 11 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 19 | East County Revolution FC | 0.71 (+0.28) | 21st (0.56) | A point next game |
| 20 | Stanford Strikers | 0.57 (+0.14) | 20th (0.57) | A point next game |
How the results connect
17 chains · 12 teams
Paths of results that link Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL to Clovis Crossfire through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.26 · 20th hardest of 24
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 02:00 PM |
Clovis Crossfire 5th · 4-3-0 · GD +23 |
Away far trip
Clovis North High School |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–4 | 0.08 | 0.38 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM |
East Bay United 14th · 3-0-4 · GD +12 |
Home Robertson Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–3 | 0.34 | 0.38 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 10:30 AM |
East County Revolution FC 19th · 1-2-4 · GD -27 |
Away Sunset Sports Complex (SSC) |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–1 | 1.61 | 0.50 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 01:00 PM |
FC Fresno Academy 12th · 3-2-2 · GD +4 |
Home Robertson Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–2 | 0.56 | 0.51 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 11:30 AM |
Sheriffs FC 10th · 4-1-2 · GD +4 |
Away Edendale Middle School |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
0–2 | 0.49 | 0.51 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 01:00 PM |
Stanford Strikers 20th · 1-1-5 · GD -14 |
Home Robertson Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.63 | 0.59 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 01:25 PM |
Legends FC 22nd · 0-1-6 · GD -18 |
Away far trip
Andrew Hill High School · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.36 | 0.65 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 01:00 PM |
Turlock Academica Jrs 16th · 2-2-3 · GD +0 |
Home Robertson Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.76 | 0.66 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Dnamo FC Delta 18th · 2-0-5 · GD -8 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.73 | 0.66 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Reno APEX Soccer Club | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 17 | 2.43 | WDWWW | -0.12 | -0.13 | 76% | 3.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs East County Revolution FC · Sat Oct 31 at Clovis Crossfire · Sat Nov 7 vs Vacaville United Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Walnut Creek Surf | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 17 | 2.43 | WWDWW | +0.06 | -0.10 | 65% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Stockton TLJ FC · Sat Oct 31 at Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Nov 7 vs San Ramon FC -RL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Albany Berkeley Soccer Club | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 5 | +12 | 16 | 2.29 | WWWWW | -0.30 | -0.20 | 59% | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Dnamo FC Delta · Sat Oct 31 vs Vacaville United Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 vs Sheriffs FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Central Valley Premier FC -RL | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 16 | 2.29 | WLWWW | -0.22 | +0.53 | 6% | 9.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Oct 31 at South Valley United Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at South Valley Chivas See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Clovis Crossfire | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 2 | +23 | 15 | 2.14 | WWWDW | -0.83 | +0.44 | 73% | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL · Sat Oct 31 vs Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 vs Stockton TLJ FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Stockton TLJ FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 6 | +15 | 14 | 2.00 | WWWDL | -0.21 | -0.13 | 47% | 5.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Nov 7 at Clovis Crossfire See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 14 | 2.00 | LWDDW | +0.66 | -0.44 | 22% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Oct 31 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sat Nov 7 at Solano Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Diablo Valley Futbol Club | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 14 | 2.00 | WDLDW | +0.05 | -0.57 | 22% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sat Oct 31 at Stockton TLJ FC · Sat Nov 7 at FC Fresno Academy See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Cent. California Soccer Alliance | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 24 | 6 | +18 | 13 | 1.86 | DDDWW | -0.76 | +0.47 | 23% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at San Ramon FC -RL · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Turlock Academica Jrs See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Sheriffs FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 13 | 1.86 | LWWWL | -0.61 | +0.58 | 1% | 12.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Union FC · Sat Oct 31 vs San Ramon FC -RL · Sat Nov 7 at Albany Berkeley Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | SF United FC | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 11 | 1.57 | WLLDW | +0.18 | +0.22 | 3% | 10.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Oct 31 vs Union FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Stanford Strikers See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | FC Fresno Academy | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 11 | 1.57 | DLDWW | -0.10 | -0.11 | 1% | 12.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Stanford Strikers · Sat Oct 31 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Nov 7 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Vacaville United Soccer Club | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 11 | 1.57 | DLDWL | +0.31 | +0.18 | 0% | 13.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs East Bay United · Sat Oct 31 at Albany Berkeley Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at Reno APEX Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | East Bay United | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 14 | +12 | 9 | 1.29 | LWWLW | -0.55 | +0.22 | 1% | 12.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Vacaville United Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 at Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL · Sat Nov 7 at Legends FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Union FC | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 8 | 1.14 | DWWLL | -0.30 | -0.20 | 1% | 12.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sheriffs FC · Sat Oct 31 at SF United FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Dnamo FC Delta See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Turlock Academica Jrs | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 12 | +0 | 8 | 1.14 | LDLDL | +0.16 | -0.52 | 0% | 14.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at SF United FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Nov 7 at Cent. California Soccer Alliance See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | San Ramon FC -RL | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 8 | 1.14 | LDWDW | -0.54 | -0.13 | 0% | 16.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cent. California Soccer Alliance · Sat Oct 31 at Sheriffs FC · Sat Nov 7 at Walnut Creek Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Dnamo FC Delta | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 6 | 0.86 | WWLLL | +0.66 | -0.05 | 0% | 17.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Albany Berkeley Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs Stanford Strikers · Sat Nov 7 at Union FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | East County Revolution FC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 34 | -27 | 5 | 0.71 | LDLDL | +0.17 | +0.30 | 0% | 20.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs Solano Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 20 | Stanford Strikers | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 17 | -14 | 4 | 0.57 | WLLLL | +0.20 | +0.30 | 0% | 20.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Fresno Academy · Sat Oct 31 at Dnamo FC Delta · Sat Nov 7 at SF United FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 21 | Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 3 | 0.43 | LLLLL | +0.17 | -0.26 | 0% | 20.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Clovis Crossfire · Sat Oct 31 vs East Bay United · Sat Nov 7 at East County Revolution FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 22 | Legends FC | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 21 | -18 | 1 | 0.14 | LLLDL | +0.88 | -0.21 | 0% | 21.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Solano Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Cent. California Soccer Alliance · Sat Nov 7 vs East Bay United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 23 | Solano Surf | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 24 | -23 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.47 | -0.52 | 0% | 22.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC · Sat Oct 31 at East County Revolution FC · Sat Nov 7 vs South Valley United Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 24 | South Valley Chivas | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 47 | -45 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.52 | +0.30 | 0% | 23.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Valley United Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Fresno Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.87 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.