SF United FC
ECNL Regional League Boys · NorCal BU16 · 24 teams · SF United FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:30 PM
Crocker Amazon soccer fields, Field 5 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.0 against · 1.93 expected points)
| Season so far | SF United FC | Turlock Academica Jrs |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 11th | 16th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-2-2 | 2-2-3 |
| Points per game | 1.57 | 1.14 |
| Goals for / game | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals against / game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W D L L W | L D L D L |
| Biggest win | 5–0 at Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL | 5–2 at San Ramon FC -RL |
| Worst loss | 0–2 at Walnut Creek Surf | 2–4 at Central Valley Premier FC -RL |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.67 | -0.03 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.18 | +0.16 |
Common opponents: Dnamo FC Delta — we 1–2; they 1–2. Stockton TLJ FC — we 2–1; they 2–2.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 at Clovis Crossfire, 0–2 at Walnut Creek Surf.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 57% / draw 23% / loss 21%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Turlock Academica Jrs game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SF United FC – Turlock Academica Jrs) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.50 PPG |
13th▼ down 2 | 12th▼ down 1 | 14th▼ down 3 |
| Win 1.75 PPG |
11th— holds | 10th▲ up 1 | 11th— holds |
| Draw 1.50 PPG |
13th▼ down 2 | 12th▼ down 1 | 14th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 1.38 PPG |
13th▼ down 2 | 13th▼ down 2 | 15th▼ down 4 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 11th even if every rival loses, and as low as 14th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 1%
- 4th 2%
- 5th 2%
- 6th 4%
- 7th 6%
- 8th 8%
- 9th 11%
- 10th 12%
- 11th 12%
- 12th 11%
- 13th 8%
- 14th 8%
- 15th 6%
- 16th 5%
- 17th 3%
- 18th 1%
- 19th <1%
- 20th
- 21st
- 22nd
- 23rd
- 24th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.38 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reno APEX Soccer Club | 2.43 (+0.86) | 1st (2.21) | 28 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 2 | Walnut Creek Surf | 2.43 (+0.86) | 3rd (2.17) | 28 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 3 | Albany Berkeley Soccer Club | 2.29 (+0.72) | 4th (2.11) | 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 4 | Central Valley Premier FC -RL | 2.29 (+0.72) | 9th (1.73) | 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 5 | Clovis Crossfire | 2.14 (+0.57) | 2nd (2.18) | 24 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 6 | Stockton TLJ FC | 2.00 (+0.43) | 5th (2.03) | 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 7 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 2.00 (+0.43) | 6th (1.92) | 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 8 | Diablo Valley Futbol Club | 2.00 (+0.43) | 7th (1.92) | 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 9 | Cent. California Soccer Alliance | 1.86 (+0.29) | 8th (1.88) | 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 10 | Sheriffs FC | 1.86 (+0.29) | 13th (1.53) | 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
How the results connect
15 chains · 13 teams
Paths of results that link SF United FC to Turlock Academica Jrs through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.22 · 8th hardest of 24
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 01:30 PM |
Turlock Academica Jrs 16th · 2-2-3 · GD +0 |
Home Crocker Amazon soccer fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
1–1 | 1.93 | 1.62 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 12:30 PM |
Union FC 15th · 2-2-3 · GD +7 |
Home Silver Terrace |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.60 | 1.61 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 03:20 PM |
Stanford Strikers 20th · 1-1-5 · GD -14 |
Home Crocker Amazon soccer fields |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
2–0 | 2.53 | 1.71 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 11:30 AM |
Sheriffs FC 10th · 4-1-2 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
Edendale Middle School |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.49 | 1.69 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 12:00 PM |
San Ramon FC -RL 17th · 2-2-3 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
San Ramon Sports Park - Tiffany Roberts |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
1–1 | 1.84 | 1.70 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
East Bay United 14th · 3-0-4 · GD +12 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
2–1 | 1.60 | 1.69 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 10:00 AM |
Vacaville United Soccer Club 13th · 3-2-2 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Horse Creek Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
1–1 | 1.52 | 1.68 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
South Valley United Soccer Club 7th · 4-2-1 · GD +8 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–1 | 1.43 | 1.66 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 01:00 PM |
Diablo Valley Futbol Club 8th · 4-2-1 · GD +7 |
Away far trip
Marathon/Tesoro Fields |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–1 | 1.31 | 1.64 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Reno APEX Soccer Club | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 17 | 2.43 | WDWWW | -0.12 | -0.13 | 76% | 3.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs East County Revolution FC · Sat Oct 31 at Clovis Crossfire · Sat Nov 7 vs Vacaville United Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Walnut Creek Surf | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 17 | 2.43 | WWDWW | +0.06 | -0.10 | 65% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Stockton TLJ FC · Sat Oct 31 at Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Nov 7 vs San Ramon FC -RL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Albany Berkeley Soccer Club | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 5 | +12 | 16 | 2.29 | WWWWW | -0.30 | -0.20 | 59% | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Dnamo FC Delta · Sat Oct 31 vs Vacaville United Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 vs Sheriffs FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Central Valley Premier FC -RL | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 16 | 2.29 | WLWWW | -0.22 | +0.53 | 6% | 9.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Oct 31 at South Valley United Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at South Valley Chivas See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Clovis Crossfire | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 2 | +23 | 15 | 2.14 | WWWDW | -0.83 | +0.44 | 73% | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL · Sat Oct 31 vs Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 vs Stockton TLJ FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Stockton TLJ FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 6 | +15 | 14 | 2.00 | WWWDL | -0.21 | -0.13 | 47% | 5.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Nov 7 at Clovis Crossfire See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 14 | 2.00 | LWDDW | +0.66 | -0.44 | 22% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Oct 31 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sat Nov 7 at Solano Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Diablo Valley Futbol Club | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 14 | 2.00 | WDLDW | +0.05 | -0.57 | 22% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sat Oct 31 at Stockton TLJ FC · Sat Nov 7 at FC Fresno Academy See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Cent. California Soccer Alliance | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 24 | 6 | +18 | 13 | 1.86 | DDDWW | -0.76 | +0.47 | 23% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at San Ramon FC -RL · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Turlock Academica Jrs See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Sheriffs FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 13 | 1.86 | LWWWL | -0.61 | +0.58 | 1% | 12.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Union FC · Sat Oct 31 vs San Ramon FC -RL · Sat Nov 7 at Albany Berkeley Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | SF United FC | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 11 | 1.57 | WLLDW | +0.18 | +0.22 | 3% | 10.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Oct 31 vs Union FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Stanford Strikers See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | FC Fresno Academy | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 11 | 1.57 | DLDWW | -0.10 | -0.11 | 1% | 12.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Stanford Strikers · Sat Oct 31 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Nov 7 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Vacaville United Soccer Club | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 11 | 1.57 | DLDWL | +0.31 | +0.18 | 0% | 13.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs East Bay United · Sat Oct 31 at Albany Berkeley Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at Reno APEX Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | East Bay United | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 14 | +12 | 9 | 1.29 | LWWLW | -0.55 | +0.22 | 1% | 12.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Vacaville United Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 at Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL · Sat Nov 7 at Legends FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Union FC | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 8 | 1.14 | DWWLL | -0.30 | -0.20 | 1% | 12.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sheriffs FC · Sat Oct 31 at SF United FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Dnamo FC Delta See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Turlock Academica Jrs | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 12 | +0 | 8 | 1.14 | LDLDL | +0.16 | -0.52 | 0% | 14.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at SF United FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Nov 7 at Cent. California Soccer Alliance See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | San Ramon FC -RL | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 8 | 1.14 | LDWDW | -0.54 | -0.13 | 0% | 16.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cent. California Soccer Alliance · Sat Oct 31 at Sheriffs FC · Sat Nov 7 at Walnut Creek Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Dnamo FC Delta | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 6 | 0.86 | WWLLL | +0.66 | -0.05 | 0% | 17.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Albany Berkeley Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs Stanford Strikers · Sat Nov 7 at Union FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | East County Revolution FC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 34 | -27 | 5 | 0.71 | LDLDL | +0.17 | +0.30 | 0% | 20.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs Solano Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 20 | Stanford Strikers | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 17 | -14 | 4 | 0.57 | WLLLL | +0.20 | +0.30 | 0% | 20.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Fresno Academy · Sat Oct 31 at Dnamo FC Delta · Sat Nov 7 at SF United FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 21 | Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 3 | 0.43 | LLLLL | +0.17 | -0.26 | 0% | 20.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Clovis Crossfire · Sat Oct 31 vs East Bay United · Sat Nov 7 at East County Revolution FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 22 | Legends FC | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 21 | -18 | 1 | 0.14 | LLLDL | +0.88 | -0.21 | 0% | 21.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Solano Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Cent. California Soccer Alliance · Sat Nov 7 vs East Bay United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 23 | Solano Surf | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 24 | -23 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.47 | -0.52 | 0% | 22.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC · Sat Oct 31 at East County Revolution FC · Sat Nov 7 vs South Valley United Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 24 | South Valley Chivas | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 47 | -45 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.52 | +0.30 | 0% | 23.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Valley United Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Fresno Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.87 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.