East Bay United

ECNL Regional League Boys · NorCal BU16 · 24 teams · East Bay United (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 42 minutes ago.

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14th

3-0-4 record · 7 played

1.29 points per game

+12 goal diff · 26–14

LWWLWlast 5

1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.4

-0.55 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM

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East Bay United
14th · 1.29 PPG

Vacaville United Soccer Club
13th · 1.57 PPG

Horse Creek Soccer Complex, Field A ↗ far trip

45% 19% 36%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.4 for, 2.1 against · 1.54 expected points)

Season so far	East Bay United	Vacaville United Soccer Club
Position	14th	13th
Record (W-D-L)	3-0-4	3-2-2
Points per game	1.29	1.57
Goals for / game	3.7	1.7
Goals against / game	2.0	1.4
Clean sheets	2	2
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	W L W W L	L W D L D
Biggest win	14–0 vs South Valley Chivas	3–1 vs FC Fresno Academy
Worst loss	2–5 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club	1–3 at South Valley United Soccer Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.99	+0.27
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.55	+0.31

Common opponents: Diablo Valley Futbol Club — we 2–5; they 1–3. South Valley United Soccer Club — we 1–2; they 1–3. Stanford Strikers — we 3–0; they 2–0. Dnamo FC Delta — we 3–2; they 2–0.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Sheriffs FC.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 45% / draw 19% / loss 36%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 10:00 AM at Horse Creek Soccer Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Vacaville United Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (East Bay United – Vacaville United Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.25 PPG	14th— holds	14th— holds	17th▼ down 3
Win 1.50 PPG	13th▲ up 1	12th▲ up 2	13th▲ up 1
Draw 1.25 PPG	14th— holds	14th— holds	17th▼ down 3
Loss 1.13 PPG	17th▼ down 3	14th— holds	17th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 14th even if every rival loses, and as low as 17th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

1% top 4

99% below the top 4

12.4 average finish

1st
2nd <1%
3rd <1%
4th 1%
5th 1%
6th 2%
7th 3%
8th 5%
9th 7%
10th 9%
11th 10%
12th 11%
13th 12%
14th 12%
15th 10%
16th 9%
17th 7%
18th 2%
19th <1%
20th
21st <1%
22nd
23rd
24th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Reno APEX Soccer Club	2.43 (+1.14)	1st (2.21)	30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
2	Walnut Creek Surf	2.43 (+1.14)	3rd (2.17)	30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
3	Albany Berkeley Soccer Club	2.29 (+1.00)	4th (2.11)	28 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
4	Central Valley Premier FC -RL	2.29 (+1.00)	9th (1.73)	28 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
5	Clovis Crossfire	2.14 (+0.85)	2nd (2.18)	26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
6	Stockton TLJ FC	2.00 (+0.71)	5th (2.03)	23 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
7	South Valley United Soccer Club	2.00 (+0.71)	6th (1.92)	23 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
8	Diablo Valley Futbol Club	2.00 (+0.71)	7th (1.92)	23 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
9	Cent. California Soccer Alliance	1.86 (+0.57)	8th (1.88)	21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
10	Sheriffs FC	1.86 (+0.57)	13th (1.53)	21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
11	SF United FC	1.57 (+0.28)	10th (1.64)	17 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
12	FC Fresno Academy	1.57 (+0.28)	11th (1.57)	17 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
13	Vacaville United Soccer Club	1.57 (+0.28)	15th (1.49)	17 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection

How the results connect

13 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link East Bay United to Vacaville United Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us

7 favour them

+0.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.22 · 9th hardest of 24

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 10:00 AM	Vacaville United Soccer Club 13th · 3-2-2 · GD +2	Away far trip Horse Creek Soccer Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	45%	2–2	1.54	1.32	Swing game
Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM	Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL 21st · 1-0-6 · GD -15	Away Robertson Park	●○○○○ Favorable	82%	3–1	2.56	1.46	Bank it
Sat Nov 7 02:35 PM	Legends FC 22nd · 0-1-6 · GD -18	Away far trip Andrew Hill High School · turf	●○○○○ Favorable	83%	3–1	2.59	1.57	Bank it
Sat Mar 13 11:30 AM	Reno APEX Soccer Club 1st · 5-2-0 · GD +14	Away far trip Lyman Gilmore 11v11	●●●●● Very tough	21%	1–2	0.79	1.50	Upside
Sat Apr 3 02:00 PM	Central Valley Premier FC -RL 4th · 5-1-1 · GD +8	Home College of Alameda · turf?	●●●○○ Toss-up	49%	2–2	1.65	1.51	Swing game
Sat Apr 10 TBD	SF United FC 11th · 3-2-2 · GD +7	Away	●●●●○ Tough	33%	1–2	1.20	1.49	Upside
Sat Apr 17 04:00 PM	Cent. California Soccer Alliance 9th · 3-4-0 · GD +18	Home College of Alameda · turf?	●●●●○ Tough	29%	2–2	1.06	1.46	Upside
Sun Apr 25 10:00 AM	San Ramon FC -RL 17th · 2-2-3 · GD -2	Home College of Alameda · turf?	●●○○○ Lean win	69%	3–1	2.22	1.51	Swing game
Sat May 1 12:25 PM	Union FC 15th · 2-2-3 · GD +7	Away far trip Larchmont Community Park	●●●●○ Tough	37%	2–2	1.31	1.50	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Reno APEX Soccer Club

+14

2.43

WDWWW

-0.12

-0.13

76%

3.2

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Solano Surf (23rd)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	4–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Cent. California Soccer Alliance (9th)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	San Ramon FC -RL (17th)	3–2
D	Sun Aug 16	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (6th)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 15	at	Stanford Strikers (20th)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs East County Revolution FC · Sat Oct 31 at Clovis Crossfire · Sat Nov 7 vs Vacaville United Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	East County Revolution FC (19th)	5–0	97%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Clovis Crossfire (5th)	1–1	22%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Vacaville United Soccer Club (13th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	East Bay United (14th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Dnamo FC Delta (18th)	3–0	80%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Albany Berkeley Soccer Club (3rd)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (7th)	1–1	53%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (4th)	2–1	52%
·	Sat May 1	at	South Valley Chivas (24th)	6–0	99%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Walnut Creek Surf

+11

2.43

WWDWW

+0.06

-0.10

65%

4.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Union FC (15th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL (21st)	5–1
D	Sat Sep 26	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (7th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	SF United FC (11th)	2–0
W	Sat Aug 22	at	East Bay United (14th)	4–3
W	Sun Aug 16	at	Solano Surf (23rd)	2–0
D	Sat Aug 15	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (4th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Stockton TLJ FC · Sat Oct 31 at Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Nov 7 vs San Ramon FC -RL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Stockton TLJ FC (6th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	San Ramon FC -RL (17th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Stanford Strikers (20th)	3–0	87%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Cent. California Soccer Alliance (9th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (8th)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Dnamo FC Delta (18th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat May 1	at	East County Revolution FC (19th)	4–1	92%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Albany Berkeley Soccer Club

+12

2.29

WWWWW

-0.30

-0.20

59%

4.3

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Legends FC (22nd)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Union FC (15th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	East County Revolution FC (19th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL (21st)	4–1
W	Sat Aug 22	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (7th)	2–1
D	Sun Aug 16	vs	Cent. California Soccer Alliance (9th)	1–1
L	Sat Aug 15	at	Stockton TLJ FC (6th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Dnamo FC Delta · Sat Oct 31 vs Vacaville United Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 vs Sheriffs FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Dnamo FC Delta (18th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Vacaville United Soccer Club (13th)	1–0	60%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sheriffs FC (10th)	1–0	57%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Clovis Crossfire (5th)	1–1	26%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	South Valley Chivas (24th)	5–0	98%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Reno APEX Soccer Club (1st)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (4th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Solano Surf (23rd)	3–0	90%
·	Sat May 1	at	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	1–1	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Central Valley Premier FC -RL

2.29

WLWWW

-0.22

+0.53

9.7

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Stanford Strikers (20th)	6–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Dnamo FC Delta (18th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	4–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Stockton TLJ FC (6th)	0–4
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Legends FC (22nd)	4–1
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	San Ramon FC -RL (17th)	1–0
D	Sat Aug 15	at	Walnut Creek Surf (2nd)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Oct 31 at South Valley United Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at South Valley Chivas See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (8th)	1–2	34%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (7th)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	South Valley Chivas (24th)	6–0	98%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Cent. California Soccer Alliance (9th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	East Bay United (14th)	2–2	34%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Sheriffs FC (10th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Albany Berkeley Soccer Club (3rd)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Reno APEX Soccer Club (1st)	1–2	28%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Clovis Crossfire (5th)	1–2	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Clovis Crossfire

+23

2.14

WWWDW

-0.83

+0.44

73%

3.3

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	South Valley Chivas (24th)	9–0
D	Sat Oct 10	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (7th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (8th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Legends FC (22nd)	4–0
W	Sun Aug 23	at	East County Revolution FC (19th)	9–0
D	Sun Aug 16	vs	SF United FC (11th)	0–0
D	Sat Aug 15	at	Union FC (15th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL · Sat Oct 31 vs Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 vs Stockton TLJ FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL (21st)	4–0	95%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Reno APEX Soccer Club (1st)	1–1	55%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (6th)	1–1	59%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Albany Berkeley Soccer Club (3rd)	1–1	49%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Cent. California Soccer Alliance (9th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	2–0	75%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Sheriffs FC (10th)	2–0	72%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Stanford Strikers (20th)	3–0	90%
·	Sat May 1	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (4th)	2–1	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Stockton TLJ FC

+15

2.00

WWWDL

-0.21

-0.13

47%

5.1

L	Sat Oct 17	at	SF United FC (11th)	1–2
D	Sat Oct 10	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL (21st)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (4th)	4–0
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	South Valley Chivas (24th)	8–0
D	Sun Aug 16	at	Reno APEX Soccer Club (1st)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	Albany Berkeley Soccer Club (3rd)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Nov 7 at Clovis Crossfire See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (2nd)	1–1	49%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (8th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Clovis Crossfire (5th)	1–1	20%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Vacaville United Soccer Club (13th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Union FC (15th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Solano Surf (23rd)	4–0	95%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	East County Revolution FC (19th)	5–0	94%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Stanford Strikers (20th)	3–0	89%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

South Valley United Soccer Club

2.00

LWDDW

+0.66

-0.44

22%

6.8

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sheriffs FC (10th)	3–1
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	Clovis Crossfire (5th)	1–1
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (2nd)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Vacaville United Soccer Club (13th)	3–1
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Albany Berkeley Soccer Club (3rd)	1–2
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	East Bay United (14th)	2–1
W	Sat Aug 15	at	Legends FC (22nd)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Oct 31 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sat Nov 7 at Solano Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	South Valley Chivas (24th)	5–0	98%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (4th)	2–1	51%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Solano Surf (23rd)	3–0	89%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Union FC (15th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	East County Revolution FC (19th)	5–0	95%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Reno APEX Soccer Club (1st)	1–1	25%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	SF United FC (11th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat May 1	at	Cent. California Soccer Alliance (9th)	1–2	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Diablo Valley Futbol Club

2.00

WDLDW

+0.05

-0.57

22%

6.8

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Vacaville United Soccer Club (13th)	3–1
D	Sat Oct 10	at	Legends FC (22nd)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Clovis Crossfire (5th)	0–1
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	San Ramon FC -RL (17th)	2–2
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Sheriffs FC (10th)	2–0
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL (21st)	2–1
W	Sat Aug 15	at	East Bay United (14th)	5–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sat Oct 31 at Stockton TLJ FC · Sat Nov 7 at FC Fresno Academy See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (4th)	2–1	45%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Stockton TLJ FC (6th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	East County Revolution FC (19th)	4–0	92%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Solano Surf (23rd)	3–0	85%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Dnamo FC Delta (18th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Walnut Creek Surf (2nd)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	South Valley Chivas (24th)	5–0	98%
·	Sat May 1	vs	SF United FC (11th)	1–1	39%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cent. California Soccer Alliance

+18

1.86

DDDWW

-0.76

+0.47

23%

7.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	East County Revolution FC (19th)	12–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	South Valley Chivas (24th)	4–0
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Vacaville United Soccer Club (13th)	2–2
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Reno APEX Soccer Club (1st)	1–1
D	Sat Aug 22	at	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	0–0
D	Sun Aug 16	at	Albany Berkeley Soccer Club (3rd)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	Dnamo FC Delta (18th)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at San Ramon FC -RL · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Turlock Academica Jrs See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	San Ramon FC -RL (17th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Legends FC (22nd)	3–0	87%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	2–1	73%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (4th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Clovis Crossfire (5th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Walnut Creek Surf (2nd)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	East Bay United (14th)	2–2	53%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Sheriffs FC (10th)	1–1	54%
·	Sat May 1	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (7th)	2–1	54%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sheriffs FC

1.86

LWWWL

-0.61

+0.58

12.7

L	Sat Oct 17	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (7th)	1–3
W	Sat Oct 10	at	East Bay United (14th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Legends FC (22nd)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Solano Surf (23rd)	2–1
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (8th)	0–2
D	Sun Aug 16	vs	Stanford Strikers (20th)	0–0
W	Sat Aug 15	at	East County Revolution FC (19th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Union FC · Sat Oct 31 vs San Ramon FC -RL · Sat Nov 7 at Albany Berkeley Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Union FC (15th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	San Ramon FC -RL (17th)	1–1	52%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Albany Berkeley Soccer Club (3rd)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	SF United FC (11th)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL (21st)	2–0	72%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (4th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Clovis Crossfire (5th)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Cent. California Soccer Alliance (9th)	1–1	23%
·	Sat May 1	at	Vacaville United Soccer Club (13th)	1–1	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SF United FC

1.57

WLLDW

+0.18

+0.22

10.9

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (6th)	2–1
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Dnamo FC Delta (18th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Walnut Creek Surf (2nd)	0–2
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL (21st)	5–0
D	Sun Aug 16	at	Clovis Crossfire (5th)	0–0
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	Solano Surf (23rd)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Oct 31 vs Union FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Stanford Strikers See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	1–1	57%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Union FC (15th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Stanford Strikers (20th)	2–0	79%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Sheriffs FC (10th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	San Ramon FC -RL (17th)	1–1	53%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	East Bay United (14th)	2–1	46%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Vacaville United Soccer Club (13th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (7th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat May 1	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (8th)	1–1	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Fresno Academy

1.57

DLDWW

-0.10

-0.11

12.0

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Dnamo FC Delta (18th)	5–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Solano Surf (23rd)	3–0
D	Sat Oct 10	at	SF United FC (11th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Reno APEX Soccer Club (1st)	0–4
D	Sat Aug 22	vs	Cent. California Soccer Alliance (9th)	0–0
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	Legends FC (22nd)	4–0
L	Sat Aug 15	at	Vacaville United Soccer Club (13th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Stanford Strikers · Sat Oct 31 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Nov 7 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Stanford Strikers (20th)	2–0	71%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	South Valley Chivas (24th)	4–0	95%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (8th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL (21st)	2–1	71%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (2nd)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Clovis Crossfire (5th)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	San Ramon FC -RL (17th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Stockton TLJ FC (6th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Albany Berkeley Soccer Club (3rd)	1–1	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Vacaville United Soccer Club

1.57

DLDWL

+0.31

+0.18

13.1

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (8th)	1–3
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Stanford Strikers (20th)	2–0
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Cent. California Soccer Alliance (9th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (7th)	1–3
D	Sat Aug 22	vs	Union FC (15th)	1–1
W	Sun Aug 16	at	Dnamo FC Delta (18th)	2–0
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs East Bay United · Sat Oct 31 at Albany Berkeley Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at Reno APEX Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	East Bay United (14th)	2–2	36%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Albany Berkeley Soccer Club (3rd)	0–1	18%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Reno APEX Soccer Club (1st)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (6th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	1–1	49%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Legends FC (22nd)	2–0	68%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	SF United FC (11th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	East County Revolution FC (19th)	3–1	82%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Sheriffs FC (10th)	1–1	40%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

East Bay United

+12

1.29

LWWLW

-0.55

+0.22

12.4

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Dnamo FC Delta (18th)	3–2
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Sheriffs FC (10th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	South Valley Chivas (24th)	14–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Stanford Strikers (20th)	3–0
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (2nd)	3–4
L	Sun Aug 16	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (7th)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (8th)	2–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Vacaville United Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 at Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL · Sat Nov 7 at Legends FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Vacaville United Soccer Club (13th)	2–2	45%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL (21st)	3–1	82%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Legends FC (22nd)	3–1	83%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Reno APEX Soccer Club (1st)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (4th)	2–2	49%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	SF United FC (11th)	1–2	33%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Cent. California Soccer Alliance (9th)	2–2	29%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	San Ramon FC -RL (17th)	3–1	69%
·	Sat May 1	at	Union FC (15th)	2–2	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Union FC

1.14

DWWLL

-0.30

-0.20

12.1

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Walnut Creek Surf (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Albany Berkeley Soccer Club (3rd)	0–4
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Solano Surf (23rd)	7–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	South Valley Chivas (24th)	7–0
D	Sat Aug 22	at	Vacaville United Soccer Club (13th)	1–1
L	Sun Aug 16	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	0–1
D	Sat Aug 15	vs	Clovis Crossfire (5th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sheriffs FC · Sat Oct 31 at SF United FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Dnamo FC Delta See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sheriffs FC (10th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SF United FC (11th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Dnamo FC Delta (18th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (7th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (6th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	East County Revolution FC (19th)	4–1	93%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Stanford Strikers (20th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Legends FC (22nd)	3–0	82%
·	Sat May 1	vs	East Bay United (14th)	2–2	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Turlock Academica Jrs

1.14

LDLDL

+0.16

-0.52

14.4

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Reno APEX Soccer Club (1st)	0–1
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (6th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (4th)	2–4
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	East County Revolution FC (19th)	1–1
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Dnamo FC Delta (18th)	1–2
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	Union FC (15th)	1–0
W	Sat Aug 15	at	San Ramon FC -RL (17th)	5–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SF United FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Nov 7 at Cent. California Soccer Alliance See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SF United FC (11th)	1–1	21%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (2nd)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Cent. California Soccer Alliance (9th)	1–2	12%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Legends FC (22nd)	2–0	71%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Vacaville United Soccer Club (13th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (7th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	South Valley Chivas (24th)	4–0	91%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL (21st)	2–1	62%
·	Sat May 1	at	Solano Surf (23rd)	2–0	76%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Ramon FC -RL

-2

1.14

LDWDW

-0.54

-0.13

16.1

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL (21st)	1–0
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	East County Revolution FC (19th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Stanford Strikers (20th)	2–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (8th)	2–2
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Reno APEX Soccer Club (1st)	2–3
L	Sun Aug 16	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (4th)	0–1
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	2–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cent. California Soccer Alliance · Sat Oct 31 at Sheriffs FC · Sat Nov 7 at Walnut Creek Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Cent. California Soccer Alliance (9th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sheriffs FC (10th)	1–1	24%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Walnut Creek Surf (2nd)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Dnamo FC Delta (18th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	SF United FC (11th)	1–1	23%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	South Valley Chivas (24th)	4–0	93%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	East Bay United (14th)	1–3	16%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Legends FC (22nd)	2–0	67%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dnamo FC Delta

-8

0.86

WWLLL

+0.66

-0.05

17.4

L	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	2–5
L	Sat Oct 17	at	East Bay United (14th)	2–3
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (4th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	SF United FC (11th)	2–1
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	2–1
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	Vacaville United Soccer Club (13th)	0–2
L	Sat Aug 15	at	Cent. California Soccer Alliance (9th)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Albany Berkeley Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs Stanford Strikers · Sat Nov 7 at Union FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Albany Berkeley Soccer Club (3rd)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Stanford Strikers (20th)	2–0	65%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Union FC (15th)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	San Ramon FC -RL (17th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Reno APEX Soccer Club (1st)	0–3	8%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (8th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Solano Surf (23rd)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (2nd)	1–2	16%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL (21st)	2–1	64%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

East County Revolution FC

-27

0.71

LDLDL

+0.17

+0.30

20.9

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Cent. California Soccer Alliance (9th)	1–12
D	Sat Oct 10	at	San Ramon FC -RL (17th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Albany Berkeley Soccer Club (3rd)	0–4
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	1–1
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Clovis Crossfire (5th)	0–9
W	Sun Aug 16	at	South Valley Chivas (24th)	3–1
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Sheriffs FC (10th)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs Solano Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Reno APEX Soccer Club (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Solano Surf (23rd)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL (21st)	1–2	33%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (8th)	0–4	3%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (7th)	0–5	2%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Union FC (15th)	1–4	3%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (6th)	0–5	2%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Vacaville United Soccer Club (13th)	1–3	8%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (2nd)	1–4	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Stanford Strikers

-14

0.57

WLLLL

+0.20

+0.30

20.6

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (4th)	1–6
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Vacaville United Soccer Club (13th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	San Ramon FC -RL (17th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	East Bay United (14th)	0–3
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Solano Surf (23rd)	1–0
D	Sun Aug 16	at	Sheriffs FC (10th)	0–0
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Reno APEX Soccer Club (1st)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Fresno Academy · Sat Oct 31 at Dnamo FC Delta · Sat Nov 7 at SF United FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	0–2	12%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Dnamo FC Delta (18th)	0–2	16%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SF United FC (11th)	0–2	6%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Walnut Creek Surf (2nd)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Legends FC (22nd)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL (21st)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Union FC (15th)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Clovis Crossfire (5th)	0–3	2%
·	Sat May 1	at	Stockton TLJ FC (6th)	0–3	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL

-15

0.43

LLLLL

+0.17

-0.26

20.0

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	San Ramon FC -RL (17th)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Walnut Creek Surf (2nd)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (6th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Albany Berkeley Soccer Club (3rd)	1–4
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	SF United FC (11th)	0–5
L	Sun Aug 16	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (8th)	1–2
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	South Valley Chivas (24th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Clovis Crossfire · Sat Oct 31 vs East Bay United · Sat Nov 7 at East County Revolution FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Clovis Crossfire (5th)	0–4	1%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	East Bay United (14th)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	East County Revolution FC (19th)	2–1	47%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Sheriffs FC (10th)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Stanford Strikers (20th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Legends FC (22nd)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat May 1	at	Dnamo FC Delta (18th)	1–2	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Legends FC

-18

0.14

LLLDL

+0.88

-0.21

21.0

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Albany Berkeley Soccer Club (3rd)	0–2
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (8th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Sheriffs FC (10th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Clovis Crossfire (5th)	0–4
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (4th)	1–4
L	Sun Aug 16	at	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	0–4
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (7th)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Solano Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Cent. California Soccer Alliance · Sat Nov 7 vs East Bay United See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Solano Surf (23rd)	1–0	55%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Cent. California Soccer Alliance (9th)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	East Bay United (14th)	1–3	7%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	0–2	12%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Stanford Strikers (20th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Vacaville United Soccer Club (13th)	0–2	13%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL (21st)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Union FC (15th)	0–3	6%
·	Sat May 1	at	San Ramon FC -RL (17th)	0–2	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Solano Surf

-23

0.00

LLLLL

+0.47

-0.52

22.4

L	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Reno APEX Soccer Club (1st)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Union FC (15th)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sheriffs FC (10th)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Stanford Strikers (20th)	0–1
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Aug 15	at	SF United FC (11th)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC · Sat Oct 31 at East County Revolution FC · Sat Nov 7 vs South Valley United Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Legends FC (22nd)	0–1	21%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	East County Revolution FC (19th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (7th)	0–3	3%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	South Valley Chivas (24th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (8th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Stockton TLJ FC (6th)	0–4	1%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Dnamo FC Delta (18th)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Albany Berkeley Soccer Club (3rd)	0–3	3%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	0–2	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

South Valley Chivas

-45

0.00

LLLLL

+0.52

+0.30

23.9

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Clovis Crossfire (5th)	0–9
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Cent. California Soccer Alliance (9th)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 26	at	East Bay United (14th)	0–14
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Union FC (15th)	0–7
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Stockton TLJ FC (6th)	0–8
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	East County Revolution FC (19th)	1–3
L	Sat Aug 15	at	Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL (21st)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Valley United Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Fresno Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (7th)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	0–4	1%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (4th)	0–6	1%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Solano Surf (23rd)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Albany Berkeley Soccer Club (3rd)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	San Ramon FC -RL (17th)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (8th)	0–5	0%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Reno APEX Soccer Club (1st)	0–6	0%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.87 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.