TableChase Clubs

Albany Berkeley Soccer Club

ECNL Regional League Boys · NorCal BU16 · 24 teams · Albany Berkeley Soccer Club (all teams)

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3rd
5-1-1 record · 7 played
2.29 points per game
+12 goal diff · 17–5
WWWWWlast 5
59% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.3
-0.30 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 05:10 PM

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Albany Berkeley Soccer Club
3rd · 2.29 PPG
at
Dnamo FC Delta
18th · 0.86 PPG

Crocker Amazon soccer fields, Field 3 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.5 for, 1.0 against · 2.23 expected points)

Season so farAlbany Berkeley Soccer ClubDnamo FC Delta
Position3rd18th
Record (W-D-L)5-1-12-0-5
Points per game2.290.86
Goals for / game2.41.4
Goals against / game0.72.6
Clean sheets30
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)W W W W WL L L W W
Biggest win4–0 at East County Revolution FC2–1 at Turlock Academica Jrs
Worst loss0–2 at Stockton TLJ FC1–4 at Cent. California Soccer Alliance
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.12-0.53
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.30+0.66

Common opponents: Cent. California Soccer Alliance — we 1–1; they 1–4.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Stockton TLJ FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 69% / draw 17% / loss 14%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Dnamo FC Delta have lost 3 straight (form: WWLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 05:10 PM at Crocker Amazon soccer fields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Dnamo FC Delta game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Albany Berkeley Soccer Club – Dnamo FC Delta) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.38 PPG
3rd— holds 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds
Win
2.38 PPG
3rd— holds 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds
Draw
2.13 PPG
5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 3
Loss
2.00 PPG
6th▼ down 3 7th▼ down 4 9th▼ down 6

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

14% finish 1st
59% top 4
41% below the top 4
4.3 average finish
  1. 1st 14%
  2. 2nd 15%
  3. 3rd 17%
  4. 4th 14%
  5. 5th 12%
  6. 6th 10%
  7. 7th 7%
  8. 8th 5%
  9. 9th 4%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th <1%
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd
  23. 23rd
  24. 24th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.69 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Reno APEX Soccer Club 2.43 (+0.14) 1st (2.21) 23 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
2 Walnut Creek Surf 2.43 (+0.14) 3rd (2.17) 23 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection

How the results connect

15 chains · 15 teams

Paths of results that link Albany Berkeley Soccer Club to Dnamo FC Delta through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

10 favour us
1 even
4 favour them
+1.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 4–1 2–0 1–4 2–1 0–4 5–2 4–0 0–1 1–2 2–2 2–0 4–0 1–1 4–1 0–5 1–2 2–1 2–1 3–2 0–0 0–2 4–0 2–2 1–12 Albany Berkeley Soc… 3rd Cent. California So… 9th Legends FC 22nd Union FC 15th East County Revolut… 19th Livermore Fusion SC… 21st South Valley United… 7th Stockton TLJ FC 6th Central Valley Prem… 4th FC Fresno Academy 12th Turlock Academica J… 16th Vacaville United So… 13th SF United FC 11th East Bay United 14th Dnamo FC Delta 18th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 12th 24th Aug 15 Aug 22 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.20 · 17th hardest of 24

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
05:10 PM
Dnamo FC Delta
18th · 2-0-5 · GD -8
Away far trip
Crocker Amazon soccer fields
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–1 2.23 2.28 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
12:20 PM
Vacaville United Soccer Club
13th · 3-2-2 · GD +2
Home
Tom Bates Regional Sports Complex · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
1–0 2.02 2.25 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
03:10 PM
Sheriffs FC
10th · 4-1-2 · GD +4
Home
Tom Bates Regional Sports Complex · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
1–0 1.94 2.22 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Clovis Crossfire
5th · 4-3-0 · GD +23
Home
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–1 1.03 2.11 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD
South Valley Chivas
24th · 0-0-7 · GD -45
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
5–0 2.95 2.18 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Reno APEX Soccer Club
1st · 5-2-0 · GD +14
Home
●●●●○ Tough
38%
1–1 1.40 2.12 Upside
Sat Apr 17
11:00 AM
Central Valley Premier FC -RL
4th · 5-1-1 · GD +8
Away far trip
Riverway Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
1–1 1.64 2.09 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
02:00 PM
Solano Surf
23rd · 0-0-7 · GD -23
Away far trip
Octo Inn Soccer Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
3–0 2.77 2.13 Bank it
Sat May 1
10:30 AM
FC Fresno Academy
12th · 3-2-2 · GD +4
Away far trip
Virginia R. Boris elementary school
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
1–1 1.74 2.11 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Reno APEX Soccer Club 7520 195+14 172.43 WDWWW -0.12 -0.13 76% 3.2
2 Walnut Creek Surf 7520 198+11 172.43 WWDWW +0.06 -0.10 65% 4.0
3 Albany Berkeley Soccer Club 7511 175+12 162.29 WWWWW -0.30 -0.20 59% 4.3
4 Central Valley Premier FC -RL 7511 1911+8 162.29 WLWWW -0.22 +0.53 6% 9.7
5 Clovis Crossfire 7430 252+23 152.14 WWWDW -0.83 +0.44 73% 3.3
6 Stockton TLJ FC 7421 216+15 142.00 WWWDL -0.21 -0.13 47% 5.1
7 South Valley United Soccer Club 7421 168+8 142.00 LWDDW +0.66 -0.44 22% 6.8
8 Diablo Valley Futbol Club 7421 158+7 142.00 WDLDW +0.05 -0.57 22% 6.8
9 Cent. California Soccer Alliance 7340 246+18 131.86 DDDWW -0.76 +0.47 23% 7.0
10 Sheriffs FC 7412 117+4 131.86 LWWWL -0.61 +0.58 1% 12.7
11 SF United FC 7322 136+7 111.57 WLLDW +0.18 +0.22 3% 10.9
12 FC Fresno Academy 7322 1410+4 111.57 DLDWW -0.10 -0.11 1% 12.0
13 Vacaville United Soccer Club 7322 1210+2 111.57 DLDWL +0.31 +0.18 0% 13.1
14 East Bay United 7304 2614+12 91.29 LWWLW -0.55 +0.22 1% 12.4
15 Union FC 7223 169+7 81.14 DWWLL -0.30 -0.20 1% 12.1
16 Turlock Academica Jrs 7223 1212+0 81.14 LDLDL +0.16 -0.52 0% 14.4
17 San Ramon FC -RL 7223 1113-2 81.14 LDWDW -0.54 -0.13 0% 16.1
18 Dnamo FC Delta 7205 1018-8 60.86 WWLLL +0.66 -0.05 0% 17.4
19 East County Revolution FC 7124 734-27 50.71 LDLDL +0.17 +0.30 0% 20.9
20 Stanford Strikers 7115 317-14 40.57 WLLLL +0.20 +0.30 0% 20.6
21 Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL 7106 621-15 30.43 LLLLL +0.17 -0.26 0% 20.0
22 Legends FC 7016 321-18 10.14 LLLDL +0.88 -0.21 0% 21.0
23 Solano Surf 7007 124-23 00.00 LLLLL +0.47 -0.52 0% 22.4
24 South Valley Chivas 7007 247-45 00.00 LLLLL +0.52 +0.30 0% 23.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.87 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.